MADAGASCAR: TENSION RISES AGAIN IN TANA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000292 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV PARIS FOR RKANEDA LONDON FOR PLORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018 TAGS: PGOV MA SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: TENSION RISES AGAIN IN TANA, GOVERNMENT BANS DEMONSTRATIONS REF: ANTANANARIVO 282 Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: GOM security forces clashed with pro-Ravalomanana opposition demonstrators on April 20, resulting in three reported dead, 15 wounded, and significant property damage in the Anosy (government) district where the disturbances were centered. After three weeks without any bloodshed or shots fired, the newly-formed cabinet moved quickly to condemn the demonstrators and suspend future protests. The opposition held another rally today without incident, but security forces may be more proactive in preventing further demonstrations. To our knowledge, no foreigners were threatened in yesterday's disturbance. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Pro-Ravalomanana demonstrators have held demonstrations in Place de la Democratie (at Ambohijatovo Park) nearly every day since the coup on March 17, but there has been almost no violence since March 28 when GOM security forces dispersed protesters with tear gas and live rounds. This relative calm was broken on April 20 when 5,000 protesters marched from the park to the High Constitutional Court (HCC) in Anosy (roughly 2km) to protest the weekend closure of Radio and TV Mada, whose broadcasting equipment was confiscated after they were accused of inciting violence. Finding the HCC unoccupied, they marched on either the nearby Anosy Tribunal, or the Senate Palace where the members of Rajoelina's High Transitional Authority (HAT) were meeting, according to some reports. At 1500, soldiers with EMMO-NAT (a rapid-reaction security unit composed of army, gendarme, and police forces) attempted to disperse the crowd with tear gas and warning shots; gunfire followed, resulting in at least one confirmed death of a plain-clothed police officer, and possibly two protesters as well. Angered demonstrators then set fire to billboards in the area, which were apparently owned by Rajoelina, as well to the Cercle Franco-Malagache and several cars. A reported attempt to harm or kidnap the Minister of Commerce, who was exiting a nearby building, was foiled by his bodyguards. The crowd was eventually dispersed and calm restored around 1800. ¶3. (U) The newly named cabinet (septel) met on the morning of April 21, anxious to avoid a repeat performance. Citing yesterday's violence, HAT Prime Minister Roindefo Monja announced a suspension of all future demonstrations, including a planned pro-HAT rally scheduled for April 22. He labeled the protests "an attempt to foment civil war on the eve of the EU political dialogue" (which won't occur until May),and called for citizens to observe a "National Day against Dictatorship" (in reference to former president Ravalomanana) on the 22nd. Monja promised to "take all measures necessary to restore order" in the coming days. ¶4. (U) Protests continued today with a more somber, religious ceremony in Place de la Democratie, with roughly 5,000 people in attendance. The bodies of the two demonstrators were reportedly on display, but there was no indication that they planned any marches or further action. EMMO-NAT forces were present, but did not intervene; the rally had begun before Monja declared the suspension, and the HAT wisely chose not to aggravate the situation. There will be a funeral service tomorrow, April 22; post is not currently aware of any planned rallies, with the pro-HAT rally canceled. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: It is not clear yet whether yesterday's violence was an isolated event, or a turning point in what had been a cycle of relatively peaceful protest. There have been some other troubling events recently, including attacks on the house of HAT member Norbert Rasirahonana, and comments posted on the TIM party website calling for mass arson against pro-HAT businesses and attacks on CAPSAT personnel (now in charge of the armed forced after the mutiny in March). RSO contacts also indicate that the security forces are running low on non-lethal weapons, including rubber bullets and tear gas, which may shape their response to future demonstrations and riots. END COMMENT. MARQUARDT