ANTANANARIVO UPDATE: MADAGASCAR'S "NEW OPPOSITION" FIGHTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000247

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E-MBEYZEROV

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MA CN
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO UPDATE: MADAGASCAR'S "NEW OPPOSITION" FIGHTS
ON


1. SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update for
the week of March 30 to April 3, an unclassified review of major
events and information from the U.S. mission to Madagascar and the
Comoros. The last two weeks in Madagascar have been dominated by
ongoing demonstrations, while Andry Rajoelina continues naming the
members of his "High Transitional Authority" and government and
presses ahead with an unpopular and nonconsensual "National Meeting"
of political parties and civil society. Comoros' response to the
March 29 referendum on Mayotte was muted, but dialogue on a
constitutional referendum on President Sambi's mandate continues
between the Union government and the opposition. END SUMMARY

MADAGASCAR: LAST MONTH'S GOVERNMENT, THIS MONTH'S OPPOSITION
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2. DAILY STREET DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE: Madagascar's "new
opposition", composed of members and supporters of the former
government and the TIM party as well as opponents of Andry
Rajoelina's unconstitutional rise to power, have held daily protests
in Democracy Square (at Ambohijatovo Park) and Place de 13 Mai.
Encouraged from abroad by former president Marc Ravalomanana, the
demonstrators are calling for the reinstatement of Parliament, the
return of Ravalomanana, and the resignation of Rajoelina. For two
weeks now, demonstrations have lasted two to three hours before
disintegrating into fist fights and stone-throwing with supporters
of Rajoelina's "High Transitional Authority" (HAT),and then being
broken up with tear gas and gunfire. The protests are generally
contained to downtown Tana, and have not translated into widespread
violence or looting.


3. FILLING THE HAT: Rajoelina has named 41 of the 44 members of the
HAT, who will serve an advisory role for the duration of the
transition government; most are close allies from the past three
months, and only two were affiliated with the former government
(many more neutral candidates privately claim to have declined the
invitation to join). At time of writing, he had not yet named the
remaining 10 to 15 ministers that will fill out his cabinet,
including, notably, a Minister of Defense; there appears to be no
consensus within the military on a suitable candidate. On March 31,
HAT Prime Minister Roindefo Monja convened the diplomatic corps to
discuss their priorities for the transition period, but the response
was underwhelming: no Ambassadors attended, and none of the
representatives present engaged with the HAT. Minister of Finance
Benja Razafimahaleo listed food security, internal security, good
governance, stabilization of public finances, and the creation of
new institutions of state as HAT priorities for the next two years.


4. NATIONAL MEETING LAUNCHED: The HAT launched its National Meeting
("Assises Nationales") on April 2 to discuss government during the
transition period, develop a plan for rewriting the country's laws,
and determine a calendar for new elections within 24 months. In
addition, they will likely determine the composition of the Council
for Economic and Social Recovery (a 120-member body that essentially
replaces parliament). As the HAT already determined the structure
of the transition government, and outlined the five
previously-mentioned priorities, the National Meeting is left with a
fairly limited agenda - and only two days to accomplish it (see
next).


5. ...BUT OPPOSITION (AND MOST DIPLOMATS) DECLINE INVITATION:
Ravalomanana's political party, TIM, has boycotted the National
Meeting, along with a large group of civil society organizations
(the CCOC) and several members of the "old opposition", notably
former president Albert Zafy, who has been left out of the
transition government altogether - reportedly at his own request.
(As noted below, Zafy was an early critic of the HAT and its
president's "self-proclamation", so his refusal to participate
should not have come as a surprise.) TIM has announced a competing
"National Consultation" for April 3 to "restore legality and
democracy in Madagascar", while the civil society group is planning
a "National Convention" for later in the month that will purportedly
start from scratch to design new institutions and procedures for the
transition government. Zafy's "old-opposition" organization, the
Council for National Reconciliation (CRN),opposes the way that the
HAT was set up, and will instead support the creation of six
autonomous provinces based on the country's pre-2007 administrative
system. Despite three separate forces (and counting) opposing the
HAT, Rajoelina appears determined to stay the course. Only a few
ambassadors, all from Africa, attended the opening ceremony, along
with - and apparently encouraged by -- the visiting AU Special Envoy
Ablasse Ouedraogo. UN Senior Mediator Tiebile Drame returned to
Tana today but also boycotted the opening.


6. TGV HITS THE ROAD: For the first time since the crisis began in
January, Rajoelina left the capital to test the provincial waters;
thus far, the response has been positive, although a slew of
populist measures have ensured support at each turn. In Moramanga
on Sunday, he announced a pension increase, as well as subsidies on
rice, oil, and bread. He then visited Fianarantsoa with former
mayor (and recently-released political prisoner) Pety Rakotoniaina,

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to announce Rakotoniaina's installation as de facto mayor (PDS) of
the city, along with the previously mentioned food subsidies. On
Wednesday, he joined HAT PM Monja in Tulear, where a reported 50,000
people attended a rally for their native son. (Monja is a son of
Tulear, and the first PM from the region.) Cheap rice and oil was
once again on offer, as well as a 25% reduction in public
transportation fares - at the expense of the transportation
companies themselves.


7. MINING OPERATORS UNDER SCRUTINY: Rajoelina has announced that
mining contracts will be frozen, in order to "ensure greater
revenues from drilling and extraction rights". While denying that
the government planned to cancel these projects, the HAT asserted
that previous contracts simply weren't done according to the law.
In an allegedly separate incident, the offices of QMM, a Canadian
mining company operating near Fort Dauphine, were searched by the
military for weapons and/or mercenaries; local authorities have also
reportedly requested a complete list of QMM expatriate staff for the
same reason.

FOOD AID AND DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
-------------- --------------


8. U.S. STEPS IN TO EASE FOOD CRISIS: Ambassador Marquardt and
French Ambassador Jean-Marc Chataigner jointly visited Ambovombe,
Berenty, and Toliary, in southwestern Madagascar, along with the
USAID Director and French development colleagues and journalists.
The trip was intended to highlight the region's food insecurity
among vulnerable Malagasy populations, theinternational community's
continuing engagement there, and to launch a USD $50,000 initial USG
response effort in tandem with UN agencies and NGOs. The visit was
widely, and favorably, reported on in the Malagasy press.


9. JIM CARREY'S "BETTER U" SUPPORTS MCC-INITIATED PROJECT:
Agricultural and Business Centers (ABC's) Attracting Outside
Attention: The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) effort to
reduce poverty through the creation of locally operated ABC's in
rural Madagascar has attracted the attention of actor Jim Carrey's
Better U Foundation. The ABCs provide appropriate technical and
managerial assistance to local farmers and small, medium and large
business ventures. To help them expand their operations, the Better
U Foundation has made a grant to two of the ABCs (in the regions of
Boeny and Diana) to increase the scale of their System of Rice
Intensification (SRI) dissemination efforts. SRI is a rice
production methodology that was developed in Madagascar that does
not rely on expensive external inputs (machinery, seeds,
fertilizers, pesticides or herbicides),and significantly increase
yields (2-3 times the national average). In a land where rice is
consumed three times a day, this effort will go along way to reduce
hunger and rural poverty. This is in follow-up to Carrey's August
2008 visit to Madagascar.

COMOROS
--------------


10. MAYOTTE VOTES: The Mayotte referendum passed with 95% in favor
of becoming a Department. The reaction in the Comoros was muted, a
few hundred peaceful protestors. In Doha the week afterward,
President Sambi obtained the support of the Arab League to criticize
France over Mayotte, defending the Comoros' claim on the island.


11. EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE FROM THE ARAB LEAGUE: Also in Doha, the
Arab League pledged USD 24 million in emergency assistance to the
Comoros for a period of one year. Projects to be funded will be
identified. The media reported that Ethiopia and Sudan also
received similar Arab League pledges.


12. SAMBI'S CONSTITUTIONAL GAMBIT: Negotiations between the Union
Government and opposition continue about the expected constitutional
referendum, in particular to address President Sambi's intention to
extend his mandate one year to 2010. President Sambi met for four
hours March 23 with the three island presidents (Grande Comore
Abdouwahabi, Moheli Ali Said, Anjouan, Moussa Toybou) to discuss the
Inter-Comoran Dialogue and the proposed constitutional referendum.
Opposition leaders Abdouwahab and Ali Said presented a proposal for
Sambi to step down in 2010 and rework the electoral calendar in
order to harmonize elections. President Sambi maintains he will
either 1) step down in 2010 if ALL island presidents shorten their
mandates to do the same OR 2) seek to prolong his mandate to 2011.
TZ President Kikwete's timely visit offered the opportunity for the
AU to encourage consensus. While the sides remain far apart, Sambi
agreed for his Cabinet Director Dossar to meet again Saturday with
the four island executives to seek a solution. The President
departed March 27 for a week in Doha, and will review their work
when he returns -- and probably announce a new date for his
referendum as well as releasing a new revised text.


13. VIOLENCE ON GRANDE COMORE: Inter-village conflict between Iconi
and Moroni ended last week; Comoran military remain in force on the
street to prevent a return to violence. Union, city, and local

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officials, as well as tradition "Notables," have been active in
negotiating a truce over this land dispute and reached a tentative
agreement to resolve the issue in order to prevent further violence.
Street violence broke out in Moroni March 24 as villagers from
Iconi (southern edge of Moroni) and inhabitants of Moroni fought
gang battles over a land rights dispute. An unknown number of
people were injured, some seriously. After 36 hours of young men
brandishing machetes, pipes and rocks -- stopping cars to/from Iconi
-- the military stepped in March 25 to maintain order. The reported
source of the conflict is a land dispute decision by a "corrupt"
judge that went against Iconi, whose citizens attacked Moroni and
then were counter-attacked by young men from Moroni. Iconi
merchants in the Moroni central volo-volo market were expelled and
some of their stalls were burned. Island president and opposition
leader Abdouwahabi is from Iconi, and last Friday he prevented
President Sambi from attending prayers there. It is unclear to what
extent the fighting over this land dispute may be connected to the
bigger political picture. Comoros Officer has been in constant
contact with CJTF-HOA personnel to share information and keep USG
people out of harm's way. Foreigners have not been targeted.


MARQUARDT