MALAGASY POLITICS: THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000017 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV PARIS FOR RKANEDA LONDON FOR PLORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM MA SUBJECT: MALAGASY POLITICS: THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM? REF: A. 08 ANTANANARIVO 644 ¶B. 08 ANTANANARIVO 691 ¶C. 08 ANTANANARIVO 849 ¶D. 08 ANTANANARIVO 879 ¶E. 09 ANTANANARIVO 09 Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The year-old political battle between President Ravalomanana and Antanananarivo Mayor Andry "TGV" Rajaolina, after taking a holiday break with the rest of the nation, has resumed in full force and appears likely to increase rapidly in its intensity. Unfolding like a Malagasy version of classic Greek theatre and building on each of the protagonists' tragic flaws, the confrontation could potentially lead to urban violence as the confident, populist TGV increasingly defies the entrenched, unyielding Ravalomanana. The GOM tried but failed to block TGV's organization of what is expected to be a massive public ecumenical service this Sunday, signaling its high degree of inquietude about masses assembling in the streets of the capital. Two days after the service, the Mayor's December 13 "ultimatum" to the President to have reopened his shuttered "VIVA" TV station will expire - almost certainly without success. While the outward appearance in the capital remains calm, the consensus among western chiefs of mission here is that the current situation is, in unique Malagasy style, capable of spiraling downward at any moment. If the Mayor is being manipulated by savvy political forces unseen by the public (which appears almost certain, although no one can say for certain who they are),the President suffers acutely from the opposite problem: no one on his team has much political sense or dares give him advice to calm the waters even if it means backing down. As a result, the two seem unable to exit their dangerous collision course. Some here see the Addis AU Summit at the end of January as the opposition's target, thinking that they hope to foment urban unrest by then that would lead to cancellation of the Summit here and to the international embarrassment of Ravalomanana. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Aggravating the confrontation is a flurry of politically-charged activity in the capital that is pouring gas on the fire. In the past month, the president has charged ahead rather inexplicably on reforms to the political party system (that only he seems to understand),purchased a new official airplane for USD 60 million, authorized the creation of a new state petroleum company, passed a VAT exemption that favors only his own company (Tiko),and reshuffled several members of his cabinet in an apparent move to weaken the Prime Minister. A series of prison breaks around the country have cast doubt on the administration's security credentials, and a December fire at the nearly-finished five-star hotel in Antananarivo raised concerns about the country's preparations for the upcoming AU summit. While Ravalomanana studiously ignored the events surrounding the VIVA closure for three weeks, and proceeded with business as usual, the opposition rallied behind the Mayor, finding in VIVA a cause that sells as well in the capital as it does in the regions. ¶3. (C) The president has convened a special session of parliament to debate his new political party law, and the change to the constitution that it would require. Scheduled for January 12 to 15, it glosses over the opposition's January 13 deadline for an official response to their calls for media freedom and the reopening not only of VIVA, but of other stations that have been closed in recent years. TGV and his colleagues have yet to detail their plans should the deadline not be met, but most expect demonstrations at the very least. ¶4. (C) The German Ambassador convened a luncheon meeting on January 8 of the western chiefs of mission resident in Antananarivo and the head of the UN system. They were joined by two Malagasy political personalities (Serge Radert, a former minister; and Serge Zafimahova, president of a local "reflection group"),whom the President recently enlisted to draft a version of the pending political parties' law, which they sought to explain. No one is quite sure why the President has seized on political party reform at this time; he has claimed privately to associates that it is to "appease the donors," but in fact the donors have been asking for electoral reform, not political party reform. The mood at the meeting was very downbeat as almost all of those present see the same downward spiral and potential for violence. No one could foresee how the confrontation between mayor and ANTANANARI 00000017 002 OF 002 president can be avoided or will end peacefully. All now see this action as related not to pre-2011 election maneuvering (which never quite made sense as TGV will not be old enough to run in 2011),but rather as leading to some sort of unplanned attempt at transition well before then (with no clarity whatsoever about who the alternative to Ravalomanana might be). The IMF, UNDP, and World Bank, in addition to bilateral partners, are already extremely concerned about the extra-budgetary airplane purchase, VAT exemption for Tiko, and sudden creation of a state oil company; as a direct consequence, the EU and Germany have suspended direct budget support pending satisfactory explanations of these actions (while not publicly revealing that they have done so -- which would be immediately exploited by the Mayor if revealed). We, France and the UN are concerned that a further degeneration of the situation could start to jeopardize other assistance programs, although all agree that the Malagasy people desparately need them. ¶5. (C) Comment: We expected the political rivalry to heat back up following a holiday lull, but not nearly as quickly as it has, nor with so many disparate issues suddenly coming to the fore. A warden message is in preparation, focused mainly on asking Amcits to avoid the site of the Sunday service but also advising caution thereafter. The ambassador is also seeking "New Year's" appointments with the President, Mayor, and other key actors, primarily to advise cooler heads to prevail. We are not particularly sanguine, however, on the receptiveness, particularly by the President, to outside advice. MARQUARDT