MADAGASCAR: COUNTING ON THE U.N.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000139 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV PARIS FOR RKANEDA LONDON FOR PLORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UN SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: COUNTING ON THE U.N. REF: 09 ANTANANARIVO 123 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Following successive no-shows by each party, direct negotiations between President Ravalomanana and former Mayor Rajoelina are suspended and may well be over. However, UNSYG Ban Ki-Moon, who met Thursday with Malagasy ministers in South Africa, is sending reinforcements to shore up the faltering mediation effort. A/UNSYG Haile Menkerios arrived Thursday and immediately met separately with both protagonists. Ban has formally designated former Malian Foreign Minister Tiebile Drame as the UN's "senior mediator" here; Drame is expected to arrive on March 3 and to remain here as long as necessary. Meanwhile, the two parties each have distanced themselves from the draft agreement reached by their negotiating teams, which may nonetheless form the basis for an eventual agreement ending this crisis. Talk of a "National Consultative Conference" as the way out is back in play, and one might be held next week if the FFKM Church Council can organize it. Rajoelina has met with other opposition groups to organize another large downtown rally on Saturday, the first since their suspension a week ago to give negotiations a chance; his negotiators told us they expect 100,000 demonstrators on the public square tomorrow, but that they will not leave the square or seek to occupy public buildings. Nonetheless, prospects for another violent confrontation with security forces, who have now obtained more sophisticated riot control equipment, are again high. The ambassador has an appointment today with Prime Minister Rabemananjara to caution against using excessive force, and is seeking one with the president. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Bilateral negotiations between Ravalomanana and Rajoelina faltered on Wednesday when the president didn't show up, and died yesterday when it was the ex-mayor's turn to stay away. The angry resignation on Wednesday of the FFKM Church Council President, whose day job is the Catholic Archbishop of Antananarivo, further weakened the mediation effort, as the three other FFKM members -- like Ravalomanana all Protestents -- are considered too biased in his favor to perform their function. The Archbishop's resignation was mainly in protest of the disrespect shown him by the president as the Archbishop tried to mediate, but was repeatedly and abruptly cut off by Ravalomanana as if he were running the meetings himself. This leaves doubt about the ability of the FFKM to continue in this mediation effort, as well as the open question about whether it will continue at all. ¶3. (C) The ex-mayor's negotiators told the ambassador on Thursday that they now favor a return to the "National Consultative Conference" (NCC) idea that seemed imminent several weeks ago. They said that Rajoelina can never agree publicly to anything less than Ravalomanana's resignation, and that therefore a bilaterally-negotiated settlement will not be possible -- since Ravalomanana clearly will not agree to resign. However, if a consensus were to emerge from a NCC that the president should stay on in a caretaker capacity while a new prime minister gets real power pending early elections -- which they expect would be the case -- then Rajoelina would have to accept that outcome, while protesting mildly for effect. (What remains unclear in their scenario is whether Ravalomanana would agree to hold the NCC, and whether he would accept this outcome if it were to emerge.) ¶4. (C) The Wednesday collapse of negotiations was followed quickly by new engagement by the UNSYG, currently travelling in Africa. Ban Ki-Moon and A/UNSYG Haile Menkerios met on Thursay morning in Johannesburg with Foreign Minister Marcel Ranjeva and Economics Minister Ivohasina Razafimahefa, after which Menkerios and Razafimahefa both returned to Antananarivo. Menkerios met immediately with the remnants of the FFKM and with Ravalomanana, and then separately with Rajoelina. Meeting with key diplomats Friday morning, Menkerios expressed the judgment that the bilateral negotiations between principals had been a "bad idea" since their personal chemistry was so poor: Ravalomanana cannot help acting presidential even when he is supposed to be under the control of mediators, and often treats Rajoelina as if he were a little boy. Menkerios concluded that a return to team negotiations would be necessary instead. Ambassador Marquardt remarked that the two teams already have largely concluded their work, even if it was later disavowed by each principal, and that it might be time to take their agreement to the NCC stage instead. Menkerios was open to the idea, ANTANANARI 00000139 002 OF 002 but said he is also exploring ways to strengthen the Malagasy side of the mediation effort, perhaps by bringing in other respected elders to join the FFKM, preferably also with the return of the Archbishop to his previous role. ¶5. (C) Menkerios announced to the group that the UNSYG has designated former Malian Foreign Minister Tiebile Drame as his "senior mediator" for Madagascar, and that Drame will arrive here on March 3 to continue the effort. Menkerios himself plans to depart on March 5. Drame will remain here indefinitely to facilitate the ongoing mediation, whatever form it may take. Ambassadors noted to Menkerios that Ravalomanana continues to take a hard line, making no visible concessions, not implementing his promise of an independent investigation into the February 7 masssacre, continuing political arrests, granting no public media access to the opposition (who otherwise have no access to populations outside Tana),etc. Menkerios said he raised these issues with Ravalomanana yesterday. ¶6. (C) Meanwhile, concerns are again mounting for possible confrontation and violence on Saturday. Rajoelina and his various political allies met Thursday to organize a larger-than-usual rally on the public square on Saturday. His negotiators told the ambassador that the rally would be entirely non-violent -- "like Gandhi" -- and that they would not march on or seek to occupy ministries or other public buildings. However, we have indications that the security forces may have orders to disperse the crowd, using new riot control equipment that recently arrived here from South Africa. If the crowd is as large as TGV's mediators said -- up to 100,000 persons -- no amount of riot gear may be sufficient to disperse the crowd peacefully. (We have renewed our warden message and internal communications to caution strongly against coming downtown tomorrow.) There is also reason to question whether Rajoelina and his allies will be able to control the crowd if it has others ideas tomorrow. ¶7. (C) The ambassador is seeing the Prime Minister (who has been largely invisible for weeks now) on Friday afternoon. He has also renewed his request to see Ravalomanana today. One purpose of both meetings is to caution against using excessive force. With Ravalomanana, the ambassador intends to suggest ever more strongly the need for responsible leadership onhis part, and for concessions and other calming measures reflecting his morally and politically weakened position. Unfortunately, there is still no clear indication that Ravalomanana accepts his changed circumstances, or that he is prepared to make meaningful changes on the host of legitimate issues which continue to drive much of the population against him. MARQUARDT