Comoran Dialogue Finished Before It Begins (Again)

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000102 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EAID ECON CN SUBJECT: Comoran Dialogue Finished Before It Begins (Again) REF: A) 08 ANTAN 821 B) 08 ANTAN 683 C) 08 ANTAN 620 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: African Union Special Envoy Madeira obtained agreement early this month from all Comoran stakeholders to convene an Inter-Comoran Dialogue February 27 to March 4. A few days later, President Sambi announced a date for his constitutional referendum (March 22),at which point all the opposition leaders backed out of the Dialogue. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) AU S/E Madeira appeared to have scored a major mediation victory earlier this month when he obtained agreement from Comoran President Sambi, the island presidents, and other stakeholders to hold a long-awaited "Inter-Comoran Dialogue" (REF C) February 27 to March 4 to discuss the constitution, institutions, and governance (the modalities are outlined below in para 7). The United Nations and La Francophonie were buying plane tickets for their mediators to come help the AU team. ¶3. (SBU) A few days later, President Sambi announced his (controversial) constitutional referendum would be held March 22 (REFS A AND B); and signed a procedurally questionable decree to organize the vote before departing on his latest overseas trip. The political opposition - Grande Comore Island President Abdouwahabi, National Assembly President Bounou, Mayor's Association President Mchamgama, former Foreign Minister Maecha - told Comoros Officer February 16 that now they will boycott the Dialogue. A representative of Moheli's island president Ali Said (the island next up for the rotating presidency in 2010) agreed, noting that Sambi's referendum includes a proposed extension of his term by one year to 2011, which would delay Moheli's turn. ¶4. (SBU) By setting the March 22 referendum date, opposition leaders believe, President Sambi has made clear the Dialogue would serve no purpose. They also note the President's insistence that he will have "the last word" and conclude the Dialogue's recommendations would not be binding or respected. They said Sambi's referendum threatens national unity and stability by prolonging his mandate in office and denying Moheli its turn in the rotation. ¶5. (SBU) The same opposition leaders went further to argue many of Sambi's revisions are unconstitutional, his leadership of the country is dangerous, and that he is illegitimate. Among the proposed revisions, they said, includes language calling for imprisonment for actions or statements in favor of secession. They believe Sambi would use this "vague" provision to silence all opponents. Island president Abdouwahabi again criticized Sambi for his "illegal" promulgation of the economic citizenship law. The "pro-Sambi" Anjouanese president Toybou recently criticized Sambi publicly, saying "the 400,000 euros spent on the referendum is wasted when poor Anjouanese still suffer." ¶6. (SBU) Mchamgama, Maecha, and supporters told Comoros Officer they would actively block the constitutional referendum from taking place. While Sambi has the right to revise the constitution, they said, he cannot ignore procedure, extend his mandate, diminish island autonomy, and consolidate "dictatorial powers." They believe Sambi will use the military to organize the election. In response to Comoros Officer's question, they acknowledged the possibility of violence, adding, "we will not be intimidated." Dialogue Format - - - - - - - - ¶7. (U) Were it to happen, which now seems unlikely unless Sambi agrees to postpone the referendum, the modalities of the February 27 to March 4 Inter-Comoran Dialogue were agreed as follows: -- Discuss and recommend solutions for problems of institutions, governance, and the constitution; -- Include representatives of: the Union (4),Grande Comore (3), Anjouan (3),Moheli (3),pro-Sambi politicians (9),opposition politicians (9),NGOs (6; two per island),unions (3; one per island),private sector (3; one per island),Imams (6; two per island),and traditional leaders "notables" (6; two per island); -- The African Union, United Nations, and La Francophonie would participate as facilitators; -- President Sambi would name a Dialogue Chairman, supported by five Vice-Chairs representing the Union, three islands, and National Assembly, who would organize commissions on topics, manage the agenda, and summarize recommendations. COMMENT: - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) While disappointing, most of this would seem to be a new ANTANANARI 00000102 002 OF 002 verse of the same old song. However, Sambi may be overreaching. While most opposition leaders are stubborn and prone to exaggeration, Mchamgama is serious and reasonable - he works with Mayors because communities actually improve Comorans' lives while their Union and island fail them. He gravely assured Comoros officer that Sambi's actions were "dangerous for the country." Mchamgama also suggested ominously that his opposition colleagues may take inspiration from the ongoing crisis in Madagascar. END COMMENT. MARQUARDT