TURKEY: AMBASSADOR HEARS DISCORDANT VOICES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000951 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE AND NEA/I E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2019 TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PHUM TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: AMBASSADOR HEARS DISCORDANT VOICES IN DIYARBAKIR, BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IS HOPEFUL REF: A. ANKARA 797 ¶B. ANKARA 696 Classified By: Ambassador James Jeffrey, for reasons 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During an all-day visit to Diyarbakir June 17, which featured meetings with a wide range of political and civic leaders, the Ambassador heard repeated appeals for the USG to engage on the Kurdish issue. He downplayed that prospect, noting that Turkey must solve this issue itself. Numerous Diyarbakir officials said they welcomed President Gul's recent statements on the Kurdish problem, but questioned whether Prime Minister Erdogan has the necessary political will or "courage" to proceed with necessary steps, including an amnesty for PKK members. Despite firm complaints about continuing arrests of Kurdish activists and DTP members, almost all interlocutors acknowledged that the situation is improving and that various developments, including stability in northern Iraq, have brightened the chances for peace in the region. The Ambassador stated that the PKK must lay down its arms, and also underscored that military measures will not be sufficient to resolve the issue but must be accompanied by economic and cultural steps. The Ambassador's message got wide coverage in the media. END SUMMARY. Governor -------------- ¶2. (C) Diyarbakir Governor Huseyin Mutlu (a GOT-appointed career official with extensive experience in the southeast) said the region's population has stabilized. The city's population is NOW around 850,000; some 1.5 million total are in the immediate area. Diyarbakir NOW hosts six annual trade fairs (up from four in the past) which attract many participants from northern Iraq. Mutlu said that when he was a kaymakam (a sub provincial governor) in Silopi in 1992, the atmosphere had been much more grim. People had hurried to finish their work in the afternoon and had stayed indoors after 5 p.m. because of the uncertain security situation. Now there is a "big relaxation." Terrorist organizations have realized that Kurdish independence is out of the question. Civil society has become more democratic. There ARE problems, Mutlu conceded, but the distance we have come is "incredible." He said the central government has pledged 27 billion TL (around $20 billion, as part of the GAP project) in investment by 2012, which could produce up to 500,000 jobs in agriculture. The Ambassador noted that he too has seen a dramatic shift in tone in Diyarbakir since his previous visit two decades earlier. He reiterated that the Kurdish problem cannot be solved by military measures only, but must include other approaches such as cultural and economic ones. Mayor -------------- ¶3. (C) Diyarbakir Mayor Osman Baydemir (a former human rights lawyer and long-time Kurdish activist) noted he is upbeat about the city's future, wants to bring in more tourism, and believes that if Diyarbakir succeeds it will be a boost for dialogue throughout the Middle East. Northern Iraq developments will continue to stabilize the region, but Turkey must solve its own Kurdish problem. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) had succeeded in the Southeast in the 2007 elections because of its 2005 promises, but the central government had fallen behind on fulfilling these pledges and had "created disappointment." The results of the 2009 local elections awarded Baydemir's pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) every sub-province in Diyarbakir except one, despite a tacit alliance of all the other parties against the DTP. Baydemir also alleged that fully half of AKP's share of the vote had come from public sector employees and military personnel assigned to ANKARA 00000951 002 OF 003 Diyarbakir. ¶4. (C) Baydemir complained that continuing arrests of DTP officials are creating ill will, and said he himself faces charges whose penalties, were he to be convicted on all counts, amount to 283 years in prison. Still, he said, the current time is the most suitable period ever to pursue peace in southeastern Turkey. He urged the USG to engage, and to talk to "Kurdish actors" either openly or discreetly. The Ambassador said that we respect the DTP but that it is too close to the PKK and should distance itself. He underscored that military methods are never sufficient but must be accompanied by economic and cultural developments. (NOTE: The Ambassador made this statement while the press was still present and it received considerable media coverage that evening and the next day. END NOTE) We asked Baydemir whether the Kurdish language Shesh-TV was proving successful. He was dismissive, describing the TV channel as an AKP election "investment" that had not paid off. Because the programming is not fully free, the viewership is limited. He said it seems to be an ill-considered attempt by the central government to create an Islamic Kurdish culture. Business Leaders -------------- ¶5. (C) Over lunch, community business leaders (all of them Kurdish) told the Ambassador that President Gul's recent remarks on the Kurdish issue had raised hopes in the region, but that if the USG could put pressure on Ankara, peace could be achieved faster. The USG could play a determining role. Only when the region becomes fully stabilized, as in northern Iraq, could foreign investment be attracted. They complained that Ankara had missed two major opportunities: a) when Ocalan was captured; and b) when Erdogan admitted in 2005 that mistakes had been made. Chamber of Commerce President Galip Ensarioglu said that the issue has become a vicious circle because the Prime Minister "lacks courage" to proceed. Therefore, the USG must intervene. The USG can serve a mediator role, to convince the public and the Prime Minister. The Ambassador demurred, noting that the USG's strength has limits and that the Turkish Government does not want the USG to interfere. NGO Representatives -------------- ¶6. (C) Tahir Akkoc, from Kalkinma Merkezi, noted that when Turkey's 872 ilces (essentially counties) are ranked for poverty, the last 80 are in the East and the Southeast. The government is not taking serious steps to alleviate this situation. The GAP plan's latest stage was announced a year ago, but there have been no results for ordinary people. Corruption continues to be a problem. Ozlem Ozturk, of the Social Sensitivity Association, suggested that one cause of poverty was the extensive forced evacuations of many villages and the 30 years of violence associated with the Kurdish issue. She pointed out that the military planted landmines throughout many of these evacuated villages. NOW that some families are returning to these villages, there are repeated landmine incidents (some 1,014 in Hakkari Province alone last year). The central government is not fulfilling its Ottawa Convention obligations. Her organization helps landmine victims get fitted with artificial limbs. KAMER's Nebahat Akkoc told the Ambassador that her association promotes social gender equality, and is trying to raise public awareness, with a particular focus on children up to six years old because that is when attitudes are formed. KAMER is also trying to influence official policy. Intellectual Leaders -------------- ¶7. (C) Mehmet Aktar, Diyarbakir Bar Association, told the ANKARA 00000951 003 OF 003 Ambassador that fewer human rights violations are evident lately but that the Turkish military should implement a ceasefire so that civil society could get involved, and create an environment for the PKK to lay down its arms. However, the issue needs a mediator because Turks and Kurds "cannot come to terms." He complained that the central government initially had suggested that Diyarbakir University could host a Kurdish Language and Literature Department but had decided, in the end and without consultation with regional leaders, to place it in Mardin. He lamented that Shesh-TV had not proven more meaningful, and said the broadcast law should be amended to allow private TV channels to use Kurdish. He said he is losing hope because the government is not taking the necessary steps, such as the Prime Minister meeting with DTP Leader Ahmet Turk. The Ambassador said the PKK needs to lay down its arms, and that Turkey has to work out the Kurdish issue itself. ¶8. (C) Altan Tan, a writer and journalist, said that Turkey is at a crossroads and needs to solve all its problems, which include Armenia, Cyprus, Kurds and Islam. However, the Ergenekon investigation has revealed that certain elites do not want these solutions. Tan called for a three-stage approach: a) democratization, and amending the Constitution to recognize different identities and to allow the use of Kurdish language by government officials when providing services to Kurdish-speaking citizens (he stressed that Kurds do not want an ethnic federation); b) Turkey serving as a guardian for Iraqi Kurds; and c) an amnesty to bring the PKK down from the mountains. Tan said PM Erdogan does not exert his will, and therefore cannot solve any problems. Erdogan "does not have the courage to build a new Turkey." Erdogan has three major fears that constrain his ability to act: 1) if he does something on the Kurdish issue, he will lose votes in western Turkey; 2) the Turkish military; 3) his nationalist mentality. President Gul, on the other hand, had taken a positive step with his recent statements. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Diyarbakir is the birthplace of the Kurdish nationalist insurgency, so is an apt barometer for the prevailing mood in the Southeast, which seems generally upbeat. There is conflict fatigue and a belief that the PKK is willing to make a deal. Local leaders are encouraged by GOT liberalization moves and brave statements by Gul, but they remain skeptical that Erdogan is willing or able to actually deliver, hence the desire for international involvement. The city appears vibrant and surprisingly prosperous, and there is an infectious optimism about Diyarbakir's future prospects. Mayor Baydemir even hopes that Diyarbakir can be a sister city for Nashville, a goal he intends to pursue vigorously. The government's approach is likely to be far slower and more cautious than Diyarbakir elites would prefer, and we would not discount the possibility of missteps. Amnesty remains the trickiest aspect. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey JEFFREY