TURKEY: IRANIAN PROTESTS: THE START OF A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000878 SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/SE AND NEA/IR E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2029 TAGS: PREL IR TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: IRANIAN PROTESTS: THE START OF A REVOLUTION? REF: ANKARA 838 Classified By: Ambassador James Jeffrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Based on reports from their embassy and consulates in Iran, the MFA described the ongoing demonstrations as the "start of a political revolution." The reaction of former President Rafsanjani and the "fractured" political elite in Iran will be one of the main determining factors for resolving this crisis, according to MFA officials. Demonstrations continue in the heavily Azeri cities, Tabriz and Urmia, despite strict GOI control. The BBC remains the top scapegoat for the Iranian administration, which is careful not to overly target the U.S. in order to keep the possibility of rapprochement on the table. Meanwhile, FM Davutoglu is coming under domestic criticism for not sufficiently condemning the disproportionate use of force by Iranian security forces against the protesters. The English-language version of Hurriyet incorrectly accuses Davutoglu of "urging Iranians to accept the election (results)." He did not say that, but did say the GOT believes the problems in Iran will be solved via its "internal mechanisms," and that Iran's stability is vital for the entire region. END SUMMARY The Start of Revolution? -------------- ¶2. (C) MFA Director General for South Asia Babur Hizlan characterized the ongoing protests in Iran as the "start of a political revolution," commenting that "the genie is out of the bottle." Ahmadinejad will most likely remain president, but demonstrations will weaken his legitimacy, Hizlan told us June 22. As Iran does not care about its image in the eyes of the world, Hizlan expects the GOI to be more brutal, as it has been in the past. Nevertheless, Hizlan was surprised by the extent of the protests and how cautious the regime has been to date in its attempts to suppress them. ¶3. (C) The Turkish Embassy in Tehran reported that over three million Iranians took part in June 19 protests in Khamenei Square and it took over three hours to clear one of the main streets. Turkish consulates in Tabriz and Urmia noted the cities are under strict GOI control due to concerns regarding the break-away potential of these heavily Azeri areas. Nevertheless, protests continue there. Hizlan commented that former President Rafsanjani's reaction will be one of the determining factors as to whether the demonstrations continue, especially following the arrest of his daughter. It is also unclear how much support the "fractured" political elite will offer the demonstrators, according to Hizlan. ¶4. (C) Hizlan told us that Turkish Ambassador to Iran Karaosmanoglu said the U.S. is not the top target for GOI criticism, as Tehran apparently hopes to keep the possibility open for rapprochement with Washington. Instead, the GOI has focused mainly on BBC as a culprit for fomenting demonstrations. The Turkish Embassy has not received any requests for asylum and does not have a policy should the situation arise. The opposition reportedly has put out a list of embassies, however, which will accept asylum seekers. FM Davutoglu: Iran's Problems Will be Solved "Internally" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Foreign Minister Davutoglu came under criticism in the English-language version of Hurriyet June 23 for comments he made during a photo spray prior to a June 22 meeting with UAE Foreign Minister al-Nuhayyan regarding the protests in Iran. Hurriyet's English-language version headlined that Davutoglu "Urges Iranians to Accept Election," though nowhere in the text of the article nor in the transcript of Davutoglu's remarks does he say those words (see para 6 for a translation of Davutoglu's remarks). Critics of the AKP administration point to President Gul's and PM Erdogan's "premature" congratulatory messages to Ahmadinejad (reftel) shortly after initial results were announced, and the lack of criticism of disproportionate use of force by Iranian security forces against the protesters, as evidence that the GOT is out of touch with the strong concerns of many in the international community regarding Tehran's reaction to the protests. ¶6. (C) MFA officials with whom we spoke June 23 characterized Hurriyet English's story regarding Davutoglu's remarks as "misleading." In reality, Davutoglu said that Iran was an important neighboring country and a friend to Turkey. He also stressed that Iran's stability is of great importance for Turkey and the region. In addition, he noted, "We hope that the developments in Iran are concluded in the most ANKARA 00000878 002 OF 002 proper way and through internal mechanisms. We also hope that the recent elections in the country, which were held in a dynamic atmosphere and with a high participation rate, are not overshadowed." ¶7. (C) COMMENT: FM Davutoglu's remarks reflect Turkey's effort to walk a fine line between taking into account the concerns of the international community about developments in Iran and its desire to maintain a positive relationship with its next door neighbor. We see Turkey adopting a similar approach on Iran's nuclear program within the IAEA (septel). The GOT is likely to take a wait and see attitude toward events in Iran. The Turks will not want to be out front in criticizing the regime's efforts to quell protests, in hopes of maintaining an open channel to what could possibly be a more belligerent Tehran seeking to stoke nationalist sentiments under increasing international pressure. At the same time, GOT officials are unlikely to be as forthcoming or warm in their future public statements toward Ahmadinejad's government as Gul and Erdogan were in the immediate aftermath of the election. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey JEFFREY