TURKEY: FM DAVUTOGLU TO IRAQ; MORE WATER FOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000833 SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/SE AND NEA/I E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2029 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: FM DAVUTOGLU TO IRAQ; MORE WATER FOR IRAQIS DIFFICULT Classified By: Acting POL Counselor Christopher Krafft for reasons 1.4( b,d) ¶1. (S) FM Davutoglu is planning to visit Iraq beginning June 22, remaining in country at least through June 24 and perhaps until June 25, according to MFA Special Envoy for Iraq Murat Ozcelik. Ozcelik provided us June 15 with a provisional program for Davutoglu's upcoming visit. He plans to arrive in Baghdad at approximately 0900 June 22 and proceed with a schedule including meetings with President Talabani, PM Maliki, VP Hashimi, VP Abdelmehdi, and Ministers of Electricity and Health. During the afternoon of 6/22, he will travel to Basra to officially inaugurate the Turkish consulate there, returning to Baghdad to continue meetings with those that couldn't be completed earlier in the day and to overnight. ¶2. (S) On June 23, Davutoglu will travel to Najaf to visit the Imam Ali Shrine and meet with Ayatollah Sistani, flying on to Kirkuk in the afternoon to address the Kirkuk Provincial Council, meet separately with Council members, and visit local religious and historical sites, returning to Baghdad in the evening. On June 24, Davutoglu will travel to Mosul to officially inaugurate Turkey's new consulate building there, and then will travel on to Erbil for a meeting with Massoud Barzani. The FM may return to Ankara that evening or may return yet again to Baghdad and overnight so that he can meet with FM Zebari on June 25. Zebari's return from an overseas visit and his whereabouts the evening of June 24 will dictate whether that meeting can occur in Erbil 6/24 or in Baghdad 6/25. ¶3. (S) DCM noted it would be useful for Davutoglu to meet with Amb. Hill and other American officials if their schedules will allow and asked whether we might be helpful in any other way with the minister's visit. Ozcelik concurred that meeting with Amb. Hill, General Odierno, and others would be useful. Davutoglu, who has been on the road for two weeks straight, has been difficult to pin down on the schedule but Ozcelik hopes to speak with him later in the day June 15 and see whether he wants Amb. Kanbay in Baghdad to pursue those meetings if the schedule allows. Kanbay may also have other requests of us in support of Davutoglu's visit. We suggested he reach out to PolCouns Ford or Pol-MilCouns Corbin directly to see whether we might be able to provide assistance. Ozcelik and DU/S Feridun Sinirlioglu depart Ankara June 16 for New York, where they will be accompanying Davutoglu for the UNSC meeting on the UNAMI report, so he should have feedback directly from the Minister later this week at latest. WATER -------------- ¶4. (C) We raised the water issue with Ozcelik to get the Turks' perspective on increasing the flow of the Euphrates. Ozcelik noted that the average maximum potential flow of the Euphrates as it exits Turkey is 1000 cubic meters per second(cm/s). From 2003-2006, Turkey allowed an average flowthrough of 734 cm/s of the Euphrates, far above the 500 cm/s agreed to by Syria and Turkey in a bilateral agreement (of which Syria and Iraq have agreed bilaterally that Iraq would get 58 percent, Syria 42 percent). Beginning in 2006 and continuing into this year, severe drought conditions made it difficult for Turkey to continue to do so, but it did maintain flow at the agreed upon 500 cm/s level into Syria, draining the massive Ataturk Reservoir until extremely low levels there meant that flow had to be restricted. The flow on June 14 was at 434 cm/s. PM Erdogan had committed to PM Maliki recently to endeavor to resume flow to 500 cm/s, which the Turks have sought to do to the degree possible. Though drought conditions in eastern Turkey eased somewhat in 2009, the Southeast still received below average snow and rainfall, making it impossible for Turkey to significantly increase flow from a reservoir that has been emptied to a minimum ANKARA 00000833 002 OF 002 level that still allows power generation. Ozcelik also said whether the Syrians adhere to their bilateral agreement with Iraq to allow 58 percent of the Euphrates flow through is uncertain. ¶5. (C) Ozcelik expressed frustration with the Iraqis' mismanagement of the Tigris River, nearly the entire flow of which goes into Iraq. Ozcelik said the average maximum potential flow of the Tigris is 1500 cm/s, though the current average flow is down to 700 cm/s because of the drought conditions in southeastern Turkey. Turkey has little control of the Tigris so other than local usage by small communities in SE Turkey, nearly the entire flow of the Tigris continues into Iraq. Turkish officials note the lack of pollution controls in Mosul, Tikrit, and other Iraqi cities along the Tigris that makes its waters largely unusable by the time it reaches Baghdad and exacerbates Iraq's water problems. For these reasons, the Turks have long suggested a total watershed water management approach, which neither Syria nor Iraq seems to support. Ozcelik indicated the water issue seems to have become a political competition among Iraqi politicians to see who can take credit for getting the Turks to release more water, a game the GOT will not play. He said the Turks hope to send a technical team to Iraq to find out exactly what the Iraqis are doing to manage the flow of the Tigris. He said he would also instruct his Consuls General in Mosul and Basra to check levels of Mosul Dam and the Shatt-al-Arab, respectively, to give Ankara a better idea of Iraq's water problem. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey JEFFREY