LULA SAMBAS INTO ANKARA, REINVIGORATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000771

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2019
TAGS: ETRD PREL BR TU
SUBJECT: LULA SAMBAS INTO ANKARA, REINVIGORATES
BRAZIL-TURKEY RELATIONSHIP

REF: BRASILIA 658

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da
Silva's visit to Ankara on May 22-23 was the latest in a
series of steps over recent years to strengthen
Turco-Brazilian ties. This successful visit was capped by
the signing of an $800 million investment deal between
state-owned energy company TPAO and Petrobras. The Brazilian
Embassy in Ankara characterized the relationship between
Brazil and Turkey as one of "periods of intense engagement,
followed by long stretches of inactivity" due to the
competing priorities of both governments. The biggest source
of friction between the two countries remains Turkey's
opposition to Brazil becoming a permanent member of the UN
Security Council. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(MFA) concurred with these assessments and suggested that a
stronger relationship could be built through more frequent
low-level diplomatic contact between the two countries. END
SUMMARY.

First Ever Visit by Brazilian President
--------------


2. (SBU) Lula's landmark visit to Ankara was the first ever
by a Brazilian President, although the Brazilian Emperor Dom
Pedro II visited in 1870. According to Rosimar Suzano, a
Brazilian MFA specialist on Turkey who traveled to Ankara in
support of Lula's visit, the visit was a success and
strengthened the close bilateral ties between Brazil and
Turkey. The highlight of the visit was the signing of an
$800 million investment deal between state-owned energy
company TPAO and Petrobras. Under this deal, the two
countries agreed to jointly explore for oil in the Black Sea.
Turkey will benefit from the assistance of Petrobras, which
is recognized as a world leader in deep-sea drilling
techniques. According to press reports, Lula said that his
government wishes to see Petrobras become the world's leading
oil company and, to accomplish this, the company "has to
invest and work in other countries." Ekran Aytun, the MFA's
Latin America desk officer, told us Turkey envisions
additional joint contracts after the two companies build a
sold working relationship through the Black Sea contract.


3. (C) The visit was marked by a host of other deliverables,
including a commitment to increase high-level visits between
the two countries. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
agreed to visit Brazil in May 2010 to participate both in
bilateral meetings and in the next Alliance of Civilizations
conference, which will be held in Rio de Janeiro.
Additionally, a group from the Turkish Parliament's Brazilian
Friendship Committee will visit Brazil in June of this year
as part of a series of trips designed to exchange views
between Parliamentary delegations. In contrast to this
positive view of high-level visits, Aytun noted that the MFA
favors more frequent working-level visits to build strong
lasting ties between the two governments. Finally, the
second meeting of the Joint Economic Commission will take
place this year in Istanbul (the first meeting was in 2004 in
Brazil, nine years after the agreement was signed). While in
Istanbul, Lula attended the closing ceremony of a large
business conference, which was the second half of an event
held in Brazil in 2006 during then-Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gul's visit.


4. (C) Suzano also highlighted the recently-instituted
Turkish Airlines (THY) flight from Istanbul to Sao Paolo (via
Dakar). Suzano speculated that the primary users of this
flight would be Brazilians traveling to Turkey, as the number
of Turkish tourists in Brazil is quite low and there does not
seem to be much interest in traveling to Brazil among Turks,
given that they can take a much shorter flight to Europe.
She also believed that the new flight was more of a political
decision than a commercial one, observing that no Brazilian
airline had any immediate plan to start service to Turkey.

Uneven Pace of Bilateral Ties
--------------


5. (C) In general terms, Suzano praised the strength of
Brazil-Turkey ties, but opined that the relationship is

characterized by "periods of intense engagement, followed by
long stretches of inactivity." As an example, she cited the
two-year lag time between when additional THY flights were
announced and when they actually began. Aytun concurred with
this assessment and pointed out that a reliance on high-level
contacts led to more missed meetings because of competing
priorities for the two heads of state.


6. (C) The greatest scope for cooperation and increased ties
between the two countries is in the economic realm.
Bilateral trade is approximately $1.1 billion annually, a
negligible amount given the size of the two economies.
Suzano did not believe there was much potential for increased
trade, however, as both countries produce similar products,
both in the agricultural and industrial sectors. According
to Suzano, the real opportunities lie in cooperative ventures
in third countries. She pointed out that Turkey is looking
to increase its political and economic presence in Africa, an
initiative that dovetails nicely with recent Brazilian steps
in the same direction. She also commented that during the
visit there had been a high degree of Turkish interest in
Brazilian biofuels and a discussion of how such fuels could
be productively utilized to meet Turkish energy needs. Aytun
raised each of these issues as well, emphasizing that Turkey
should focus on increasing economic trade with Brazil, as the
current figure does not crest 1 percent of either country's
trade volume.


7. (C) Despite the gradually deepening relationship between
the two countries, Suzano acknowledged that their interests
do not always align. This is especially clear on the issue
of UN Security Council reform, where Suzano said Turkey was
explicit that it will not support permanent membership for
Brazil. Turkey and Brazil also often have "energetic"
debates in other developing nation fora such as the
Non-Aligned Movement, she said.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The visit by President Lula to Ankara underscores that
Brazil and Turkey have made the deepening of ties a priority,
and this is likely to continue at least through next year
with Erdogan's planned visit to Rio. Whether this
newly-invigorated relationship will weather the long-term,
however, will depend to a large extent on the other demands
competing for the attention of the respective governments.
Both Brazil and Turkey justifiably style themselves as
leaders of the democratic developing world, but beyond that
commonality they do not have much in the way of deep-seated
shared values or interests. Economic ties, such as the
Petrobras investment or cooperation on biofuels, may help
establish shared interests over time, but it is a process
that can easily be derailed by more important concerns.

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SILLIMAN