SCENESETTER: TURKEY'S CHOD AND MINISTER OF DEFENSE

S E C R E T ANKARA 000756

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2019
TAGS: PREL PARM MARR TU
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER: TURKEY'S CHOD AND MINISTER OF DEFENSE
TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Doug Silliman for reason 1,4 (b,d)

Summary
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1. (C) The visits to Washington of Chief of Staff General
Ilker Basbug and Minister of National Defense Vecdi Gonul
will take place in a positive bilateral environment, although
some of the euphoria which followed President
Obama's landmark visit to Turkey has subsided. Turkey's
leaders welcomed as genuine our outreach to Turkey to develop
a shared approach to regional issues, and they will look to
engage with us, including on Iraq and Afghanistan/Pakistan.
Both Basbug and Gonul will express their appreciation for
U.S. intelligence sharing against PKK targets in northern
Iraq and express gratitude for the President's recent
re-affirmation of this support, but will press their desire
for greater action from the KRG to ensure that the PKK is
"finished" before the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. On
Afghanistan, Basbug will reiterate new commitments made
during the NATO summit and will likely look to hear more
about how the USG plans to engage in this region. End
Summary.

Travel to Washington
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2. (C) Both Gen Basbug and Minister Gonul will travel to
Washington to take part in the annual meeting of the
American - Turkish Council (ATC). Although they will be in
Washington at the same time, their roles do not overlap.
Gen Basbug, in particular, will not attend meetings together
with Minister Gonul. Gen Basbug is completing the first year
of his two-year assignment as Turkey's Chief of General
Staff. A pragmatic, thoughtful leader, he has sought to
remove the TGS from unproductive confrontation with Turkey's
leading politicians. Although the TGS is seen as the bastion
of Turkish secularism, Basbug has appeared conciliatory to
both President Gul and PM Erdogan, both of the
Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP). This
approach is likely tactical; we understand Basbug remains
determined to resist what he would consider inappropriate
Islamist influence in the political sphere. Polls show that
the TGS remains the most trusted institution in Turkey,
although not by as wide a margin as in the past.


3. (C) Vecdi Gonul is the longest-serving Minister of
National Defense in Turkey's history and a member of PM
Erdogan's AK Party. In general, the Ministry of National
Defense has a limited role in developing Turkey's national
security policy, but it has the lead in managing the
strategic direction of Turkey's technical development. The
key Undersecretariat for Defense Industries -- responsible
for both purchases of defense equipment and development of
Turkey's indigenous defense industry -- falls under Gonul but
acts independently.

PKK Remains Turkey's Top Security Priority
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4. (C) In all of their discussions, both Basbug and Gonul
will be focused on Turkey's effort to combat the PKK. In
strictly military terms, Turkey's work against the PKK in
northern Iraq has been a strong success. Gen Basbug has
acknowledged that, thanks in large part to U.S. support, the
PKK can no longer use northern Iraq as a safe haven from
which to stage attacks against Turkish territory.
Nevertheless, Turkey's approach to its fight against the PKK
has matured, and has evolved from a strictly military
operation to one with social, political and economic
directions. They will acknowledge the essential role which
our intelligence support has played in their actions against
the PKK in Northern Iraq. They will seek assurances that the
U.S. will continue to support Turkey's counterinsurgency.
Turkish leaders will be strident as they urge us to press
Massoud Barzani and the KRG to take action -- any concrete
action -- against the PKK in his region. Turkey has agreed
to engage with KRG officials within the U.S.-Turkey-Iraq
security trilateral dialogue, but for this engagement to
continue, it needs to produce results.

Turkey Ready To Take On Larger Role in Afghanistan
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5. (C) Turkey has been a strong supporter of NATO action in

Afghanistan. During this year's NATO Summit, Turkey pledged
to take command of RC-Capital and to deploy additional forces
in support of elections, which will bring the number of
Turkish troops deployed in Afghanistan to more than 1800.
Gen Basbug was reportedly considering taking command of a
second PRT (Turkey now has responsibility for the Wardak
PRT),but has made no commitment so far. Turkey's success
with delivery of humanitarian assistance and in construction
projects has been remarkable. Turkey has in the past year
hosted several top-level meetings to develop a new strategy
for engagement in Afghanistan, including one on May 18 with
Special Envoy Holbrooke in attendance.

Procurement Efforts
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6. (S) Predator/Reaper. Turkey recognizes that U.S. UAVs
have been responsible for much of the military success
against the PKK. While Gen Basbug and Minister Gonul should
by now have gotten the message that the U.S. will not
laser-designate targets for Turkish strikes or arm the U.S.
UAV to strike targets directly, they will make a strong case
for an urgent delivery date for the UAVs it seeks to
purchase. Minister Gonul told the Ambassador on May 20 that
Turkey's arrangement to procure advance Heron UAVs from
Israel is falling short of expectations. Turkey's request to
purchase U.S.-produced UAVs has not yet gained Congressional
approval.


7. (C) Attack Helicopter. Delivery of Turkey's new attack
helicopter (co-produced with Augusta/Westland) has been
delayed significantly. Turkey has few of the AH-1W Super
Cobra helicopters which are essential to their anti-PKK
efforts remaining in its inventory. Both Gonul and Basbug
will likely make a plea to purchase U.S. AH-1W aircraft as
soon as possible. They learned that Taiwan will acquire
Apache helicopters and had hoped that the U.S. would
encourage Taiwan to sell to Turkey their Super Cobras once
the Apache aircraft had been delivered. We learned, through
informal channels with U.S. officials in Taiwan, that the
Apache aircraft are not intended to replace the Super Cobras,
but are a new capability. The Ambassador passed this
information on to Minister Gonul on May 20. The Turks had
alternatively hoped to procure excess marine Corps AH-1Ws,
but none are available until at least 2012.

Armenia
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8. (SBU) The USG has worked hard to encourage candid
discussion in Turkey of the tragedy suffered by ethnic
Armenians during World War I. The Turkish and Armenian
governments have made impressive progress in their
negotiations on normalizing bilateral relations and opening
the border. Turkey's public would react strongly to a
Congressional resolution labeling this tragedy a "genocide,"
which would set back the efforts of those in Turkey calling
for comprehensive examination of the history and normalized
Turkish-Armenian relations. We are urging the GOT to move
forward to normalize relations with Armenia as soon as
possible. In its efforts to reach out to Yerevan, Ankara has
also encouraged Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve
Nagorno-Karabakh along the parameters of the OSCE Minsk Group
"Basic Principles."

EU Accession
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9. (SBU) Turkey formally became a candidate state for the
European Union in 2004, but has aspired to membership much
longer. Technical harmonization with EU regulations on many
subjects has continued, but political maneuvering for
parliamentary and presidential elections in 2007 delayed
reforms on several high-level political issues. Attempts by
the opposition to close down the AKP and ban its leaders from
politics dominated much of 2008 and provincial and municipal
elections in 2009 hindered reforms linked to Turkey's
long-term aspirations for EU membership. The Turkish public
is growing increasingly leery of the EU venture, largely in
reaction to Euro-skepticism of Turkey as a candidate country.
Nevertheless, the GOT pushed forward with some reforms in
the second half of 2008, most notably on Article 301 of the
Turkish Penal Code which had earlier allowed prosecutors to
bring cases against anyone found to have "insulted
Turkishness." Erdogan named a new Minister for EU Accession

in January of this year and indicated the government plans to
move forward with constitutional and other legislative
reforms in 2009. A settlement on Cyprus this year will be
key to keeping Turkey's accession talks on track.

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SILLIMAN