SCENESETTER: TURKEY'S CHOD AND MINISTER OF DEFENSE

S E C R E T ANKARA 000756 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2019 TAGS: PREL PARM MARR TU SUBJECT: SCENESETTER: TURKEY'S CHOD AND MINISTER OF DEFENSE TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Doug Silliman for reason 1,4 (b,d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The visits to Washington of Chief of Staff General Ilker Basbug and Minister of National Defense Vecdi Gonul will take place in a positive bilateral environment, although some of the euphoria which followed President Obama's landmark visit to Turkey has subsided. Turkey's leaders welcomed as genuine our outreach to Turkey to develop a shared approach to regional issues, and they will look to engage with us, including on Iraq and Afghanistan/Pakistan. Both Basbug and Gonul will express their appreciation for U.S. intelligence sharing against PKK targets in northern Iraq and express gratitude for the President's recent re-affirmation of this support, but will press their desire for greater action from the KRG to ensure that the PKK is "finished" before the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. On Afghanistan, Basbug will reiterate new commitments made during the NATO summit and will likely look to hear more about how the USG plans to engage in this region. End Summary. Travel to Washington -------------- ¶2. (C) Both Gen Basbug and Minister Gonul will travel to Washington to take part in the annual meeting of the American - Turkish Council (ATC). Although they will be in Washington at the same time, their roles do not overlap. Gen Basbug, in particular, will not attend meetings together with Minister Gonul. Gen Basbug is completing the first year of his two-year assignment as Turkey's Chief of General Staff. A pragmatic, thoughtful leader, he has sought to remove the TGS from unproductive confrontation with Turkey's leading politicians. Although the TGS is seen as the bastion of Turkish secularism, Basbug has appeared conciliatory to both President Gul and PM Erdogan, both of the Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP). This approach is likely tactical; we understand Basbug remains determined to resist what he would consider inappropriate Islamist influence in the political sphere. Polls show that the TGS remains the most trusted institution in Turkey, although not by as wide a margin as in the past. ¶3. (C) Vecdi Gonul is the longest-serving Minister of National Defense in Turkey's history and a member of PM Erdogan's AK Party. In general, the Ministry of National Defense has a limited role in developing Turkey's national security policy, but it has the lead in managing the strategic direction of Turkey's technical development. The key Undersecretariat for Defense Industries -- responsible for both purchases of defense equipment and development of Turkey's indigenous defense industry -- falls under Gonul but acts independently. PKK Remains Turkey's Top Security Priority -------------- ¶4. (C) In all of their discussions, both Basbug and Gonul will be focused on Turkey's effort to combat the PKK. In strictly military terms, Turkey's work against the PKK in northern Iraq has been a strong success. Gen Basbug has acknowledged that, thanks in large part to U.S. support, the PKK can no longer use northern Iraq as a safe haven from which to stage attacks against Turkish territory. Nevertheless, Turkey's approach to its fight against the PKK has matured, and has evolved from a strictly military operation to one with social, political and economic directions. They will acknowledge the essential role which our intelligence support has played in their actions against the PKK in Northern Iraq. They will seek assurances that the U.S. will continue to support Turkey's counterinsurgency. Turkish leaders will be strident as they urge us to press Massoud Barzani and the KRG to take action -- any concrete action -- against the PKK in his region. Turkey has agreed to engage with KRG officials within the U.S.-Turkey-Iraq security trilateral dialogue, but for this engagement to continue, it needs to produce results. Turkey Ready To Take On Larger Role in Afghanistan -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Turkey has been a strong supporter of NATO action in Afghanistan. During this year's NATO Summit, Turkey pledged to take command of RC-Capital and to deploy additional forces in support of elections, which will bring the number of Turkish troops deployed in Afghanistan to more than 1800. Gen Basbug was reportedly considering taking command of a second PRT (Turkey now has responsibility for the Wardak PRT),but has made no commitment so far. Turkey's success with delivery of humanitarian assistance and in construction projects has been remarkable. Turkey has in the past year hosted several top-level meetings to develop a new strategy for engagement in Afghanistan, including one on May 18 with Special Envoy Holbrooke in attendance. Procurement Efforts -------------- ¶6. (S) Predator/Reaper. Turkey recognizes that U.S. UAVs have been responsible for much of the military success against the PKK. While Gen Basbug and Minister Gonul should by now have gotten the message that the U.S. will not laser-designate targets for Turkish strikes or arm the U.S. UAV to strike targets directly, they will make a strong case for an urgent delivery date for the UAVs it seeks to purchase. Minister Gonul told the Ambassador on May 20 that Turkey's arrangement to procure advance Heron UAVs from Israel is falling short of expectations. Turkey's request to purchase U.S.-produced UAVs has not yet gained Congressional approval. ¶7. (C) Attack Helicopter. Delivery of Turkey's new attack helicopter (co-produced with Augusta/Westland) has been delayed significantly. Turkey has few of the AH-1W Super Cobra helicopters which are essential to their anti-PKK efforts remaining in its inventory. Both Gonul and Basbug will likely make a plea to purchase U.S. AH-1W aircraft as soon as possible. They learned that Taiwan will acquire Apache helicopters and had hoped that the U.S. would encourage Taiwan to sell to Turkey their Super Cobras once the Apache aircraft had been delivered. We learned, through informal channels with U.S. officials in Taiwan, that the Apache aircraft are not intended to replace the Super Cobras, but are a new capability. The Ambassador passed this information on to Minister Gonul on May 20. The Turks had alternatively hoped to procure excess marine Corps AH-1Ws, but none are available until at least 2012. Armenia -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The USG has worked hard to encourage candid discussion in Turkey of the tragedy suffered by ethnic Armenians during World War I. The Turkish and Armenian governments have made impressive progress in their negotiations on normalizing bilateral relations and opening the border. Turkey's public would react strongly to a Congressional resolution labeling this tragedy a "genocide," which would set back the efforts of those in Turkey calling for comprehensive examination of the history and normalized Turkish-Armenian relations. We are urging the GOT to move forward to normalize relations with Armenia as soon as possible. In its efforts to reach out to Yerevan, Ankara has also encouraged Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve Nagorno-Karabakh along the parameters of the OSCE Minsk Group "Basic Principles." EU Accession -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Turkey formally became a candidate state for the European Union in 2004, but has aspired to membership much longer. Technical harmonization with EU regulations on many subjects has continued, but political maneuvering for parliamentary and presidential elections in 2007 delayed reforms on several high-level political issues. Attempts by the opposition to close down the AKP and ban its leaders from politics dominated much of 2008 and provincial and municipal elections in 2009 hindered reforms linked to Turkey's long-term aspirations for EU membership. The Turkish public is growing increasingly leery of the EU venture, largely in reaction to Euro-skepticism of Turkey as a candidate country. Nevertheless, the GOT pushed forward with some reforms in the second half of 2008, most notably on Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code which had earlier allowed prosecutors to bring cases against anyone found to have "insulted Turkishness." Erdogan named a new Minister for EU Accession in January of this year and indicated the government plans to move forward with constitutional and other legislative reforms in 2009. A settlement on Cyprus this year will be key to keeping Turkey's accession talks on track. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey SILLIMAN