TURKEY: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL CASEY

UNCLAS ANKARA 000745

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PTER TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL CASEY

Welcome
--------------

1. (SBU) Coming in the wake of hugely successful trips of
President Obama and Secretary Clinton, your visit will be
seen as a further sign that Washington views Turkey as an
important strategic partner. Your visit is an opportunity to
reinforce the importance of strong U.S.-Turkey relations and
discuss several hot topics such as Turkey's role in the
facilitation of talks between Israel/Syria and
Pakistan/Afghanistan, as well as its own rapprochement with
Armenia. Turkey has worked hard under PM Erdogan to play a
more active role in the region and to improve relations with
its neighbors. As a result, Turkish facilitation featured
prominently in recent efforts to reduce regional tensions and
Ankara won a 2009-2011 non-permanent membership in the UN
Security Council.


2. (SBU) Turkey has consistently demonstrated strong security
cooperation as a key U.S. ally and the only NATO member
bordering Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Turkey has contributed
forces to all NATO operations, and currently has
approximately 750 troops serving in the International
Security Assistance FORCE (ISAF) in Afghanistan -- which it
commanded twice -- and 400 troops in Kosovo (KFOR). The
cargo hub in Incirlik AIR Base supports operations in Iraq
and Afghanistan; 76 percent of AIR cargo entering Iraq
transits Incirlik.


3. (SBU) Having secured a majority in March 29 nationwide
municipal elections, the ruling Justice and Development Party
(AKP) is under increasing pressure from an economy that has
begun to show weakening in response to the global economic
slowdown, including a marked up-tick in unemployment and
drop-off in exports. Addressing these problems, Erdogan
reshuffled his cabinet earlier this month, reinforcing his
economic team and naming his senior foreign policy advisor
Ahmet Davutoglu as the new Foreign Minister.

Middle East
--------------

4. (SBU) Under AKP leadership, Turkey has endeavored to play
a constructive role in the Middle East, including support for
Annapolis, the Lebanese presidential elections, and indirect
Israel-Syria talks. During the Gaza crisis, PM Erdogan
traveled to Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt in an
attempt to help coalesce a consolidated Arab position. The
humanitarian crisis in Gaza struck a chord with Turks across
the political spectrum, and criticism of Israeli actions was
fierce and vocal. Some Turks, however, expressed concern
over Erdogan's close identification of Turkish interests with
Hamas. A February 6-7 visit to Ankara by Palestinian
Authority Mahmoud Abbas and concerted effort by Turkish
officials has limited damage to the Turkey-Israel
relationship. GOT officials continue to work to help achieve
intra-Palestinian reconciliation and to repair bilateral ties
with Tel Aviv.


5. (SBU) The GOT, meanwhile, is eager to resume indirect
Israel-Syria talks. The Turkish government facilitated four
rounds of indirect talks in Istanbul between the Syrian and
Israeli delegations aimed at laying the ground work for
future direct negotiations. A fifth unofficial session
occurred in December during PM Olmert's Ankara visit when
Erdogan placed several calls to Asad. At a joint press
conference in Syria earlier this month, President Gul and
Asad called for the indirect talks to resume and the GOI to
name a negotiator.

Armenia
--------------

6. (SBU) The USG has worked hard to encourage candid
discussion in Turkey of the tragedy suffered by ethnic
Armenians during World War I. The Turkish and Armenian
governments have made impressive progress in their
negotiations on normalizing bilateral relations and opening
the border. Turkey's public would react strongly to a
Congressional resolution labeling this tragedy a "genocide,"
which would set back the efforts of those in Turkey calling
for comprehensive examination of the history and normalized
Turkish-Armenian relations. We are urging the GOT to move
forward to normalize relations with Armenia as soon as
possible. In its efforts to reach out to Yerevan, Ankara has
also encouraged Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve
Nagorno-Karabakh along the parameters of the OSCE Minsk Group
"Basic Principles."

Afghanistan
--------------

7. (SBU) Turkey has consistently supported Coalition efforts
in Afghanistan. The GOT has pledged over USD 200 million in
humanitarian assistance, mostly for the reconstruction and
operation of schools and hospitals. Despite its significant
military and public contributions, Turkey maintains
restrictive caveats on the use of its ISAF forces which limit
their ability to be deployed outside the Kabul area in
support of the ISAF commander. We are asking Turkey and
other allies to contribute additional resources to ISAF,
including helicopters, troops, and training teams. Turkey
has also used it historically close relations with
Afghanistan and Pakistan to actively promote dialogue and
cooperation, hosting two trilateral summits, the most recent
in Ankara in April 2009 with the participation of Presidents
Karzai and Zadari, their foreign ministers, and chiefs of
military staff.

EU Accession
--------------

8. (SBU) Turkey formally became a candidate state for the
European Union in 2004, but has aspired to membership much
longer. Technical harmonization with EU regulations on many
subjects has continued, even through parliamentary and
presidential elections in 2007 contributed to the GOT's
inability to enact reforms on several high-level political
issues. Attempts by the opposition to close down the AKP and
ban its leaders from politics dominated much of 2008 and
provincial and municipal elections in 2009 hindered reforms
linked to Turkey's long-term aspirations for EU membership.
The Turkish public is growing increasingly leery of the EU
venture, largely in reaction to Euro-skepticism of Turkey as
a candidate country. Nevertheless, the GOT pushed forward
with some reforms in the second half of 2008, most notably on
Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code which had earlier
allowed prosecutors to bring cases against anyone found to
have "insulted Turkishness." Erdogan named a new Minister
for EU Accession in January of this year and indicated the
government plans to move forward with constitutional and
other legislative reforms in 2009. A settlement on Cyprus
this year will be key to keeping Turkey's accession talks on
track.

PKK
---

9. (SBU) For over 20 years, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)
has conducted a terrorist campaign that has resulted in the
deaths of more than 37,000 Turks and terrorists. Since the
end of its self-imposed five-year cease-fire in 2004, the PKK
launched attacks against Turkey from strongholds in northern
Iraq, killing hundreds of Turkish civilians, military, and
foreigners, including roughly 170 in 2007 alone. Following
attacks in late 2007 that clamed over 100 dead, wounded, and
captured, the Turkish Parliament authorized the GOT to launch
cross-border operations against PKK camps in northern Iraq.
After a November 2007 meeting with Erdogan, then-President
Bush to provide Turkey with intelligence to support military
action against the PKK in northern Iraq. As a result, the
public mood toward the U.S. began a slow, but perceptible
upswing, further boosted by the election of President Obama
and his subsequent visit here, along with that of Secretary
Clinton.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

SILLIMAN