TURKEY: SUN RISING ON KURDISH ISSUE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000696 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: SUN RISING ON KURDISH ISSUE? REF: A. ANKARA 560 ¶B. ANKARA 625 ¶C. ANKARA 680 ¶D. ANKARA 597 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Jeffrey for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: A series of events in recent weeks signal possible progress on Turkey's long-standing Kurdish issue. President Abdullah Gul, following a May 7 meeting with pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) leader Ahmet Turk, called the Kurdish issue Turkey's "most important problem" and suggested that the time is ripe to make progress on the issue. In recent speeches, TGS Chief General Ilker Basbug emphasized that military means alone are insufficient to defeat the PKK, and said the "Repentance Law" should be written more clearly to appeal to PKK members to surrender. In a "Milliyet" interview, PKK military leader Murat Karayilan suggested resolution of the Kurdish problem through dialogue and implied that the PKK is ready to lay down arms under the right circumstances. Although the current situation seems more auspicious for discussion on the non-military steps needed to address the Kurdish issues underling support for the PKK, tangible progress will depend on the extent to which the government, the military and state establishment, and the DTP/PKK are willing to engage, and to compromise. We continue to urge the GOT and military to take a comprehensive approach. In his May 13 meeting with DTP leader Ahmet Turk, Ambassador pressed DTP to change its tactics by de-emphasizing Ocalan and by privately pressuring the PKK to stop its attacks. End summary. -------------- President Gul meets DTP Leader Turk -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Abdullah Gul met DTP leader Ahmet Turk May 7 at the Cankaya Presidential Palace. The two exchanged views on possible changes to the Constitution, the fight against terrorism, foreign policy, and the massacre of 44 people in village in the southeastern province of Mardin earlier in the week (Note: the massacre was the result of a "blood feud" and not a terrorist attack. End note.). According to media accounts of the meeting, Turk told Gul that DTP was in favor of democratic solutions for the country's problems. Gul replied that, as the level of democracy rises in Turkey, all the country's problems, including the Kurdish problem, would be resolved naturally. Gul also called on DTP to renounce terrorism, saying, "As long as there is terrorism, it is hard for democracy to take root." ¶3. (C) Speaking to journalists May 8 on his way back from a European summit in Prague, Gul called the Kurdish issue Turkey's top problem, saying, "No matter whether you refer to it as the southeastern issue, the Kurdish issue, or the terror issue, it is the most important problem of Turkey and it has to be solved." Gul said the problem must be resolved through democratization, and noted, "If the standards of democracy in our country were improved in the past, many things would have been resolved by now." Gul said the "consensus among state organs" and the "open dialogue among civilians, the military and intelligence, and the government" offered a chance to make concrete progress on the Kurdish issue. He called on everybody to make contributions, and said the cost of not resolving the problem now would carry an added burden in the future. Turk told reporters May 10 that he welcomed Gul's remarks, and said DTP had long made the same point about the need for democratization in order to resolve the Kurdish issue. Calling the issue ripe for public discussion and dialogue, Turk said, "If a mentality that sees Turkey's differences as richness and not a threat to the country's sovereignty prevails, the problem will be resolved." ¶4. (SBU) Opposition leaders expressed strong skepticism at Gul's statements. Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal told reporters that Gul should clarify his vague words about the "historic opportunity" to solve the Kurdish issues. Opposition Nationalist Action Party (MHP) whip Oktay Vural also called Gul's words vague, and said that it was wrong to look for an "ethnic solution" ANKARA 00000696 002 OF 003 to the problem. MHP leader Devlet Bahceli criticized the whole approach in scathing terms. -------------- - Military Signals Desire to Solve Kurdish Issue -------------- - ¶5. (SBU) Turkey's top military leaders have recently made a series of statements in support of a comprehensive approach -- including political and economic strategies as well as a military strategy -- to solve the Kurdish problem. In an April 14 address at he Turkish War Academies (ref A),Turkish General Staff (TGS) Chief Ilker Basbug stressed that the struggle against the PKK was not one between ethnic groups. In a break from TGS orthodoxy, Basbug acknowledged the existence in Turkey of "secondary identities" based on ethnicity, language and culture, and said that citizens are free to express this secondary identity as long as they remain committed to their overarching "supra-identity" as a "citizen of Turkey." While claiming that the military is making significant advances against the PKK, he emphasized that military means alone are insufficient to defeat the PKK. During an April 29 press conference, Basbug responded to questions about possible changes to the "Repentance Law" targeting PKK members by saying the law as it is currently written is difficult to understand and could be written better so that it is more appealing for PKK members to surrender. He also suggested that additional steps should be taken, citing the establishment of centers for reintegrating those who have surrendered as an example of how the laws can be implemented more effectively (ref B). (Comment: Discussion of "amnesty" remains a very neuralgic topic in Turkey, and a revision of the current "repentance laws" would likely fall short of the type of amnesty that Kurds in the region believe is necessary to entice PKK fighters down out of the mountains or gain the acquiescence of the PKK. End comment.) -------------- -------------- PKK Leader Shows Willingness to Discuss Disarmament -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In an recent interview with "Milliyet" writer Hasan Cemal, PKK leader Murat Karayilan suggested a resolution of the Kurdish problem through dialogue and implied that the PKK is willing to lay down arms under the right circumstances. Karayilan contended that the PKK is now calling for a "democratic autonomous Kurdistan" that could be established within the unitary structure of the Turkish Republic by enacting legal reforms and strengthening local administrations. Karayilan said that the Turkish state should consider the PKK as an interlocutor; failing that, it should use jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan as an interlocutor; and failing that DTP. Karayilan added that if the state does not want to take any of them as an interlocutor, a group of "wise men" should be appointed to contribute to resolving the Kurdish issue. -------------- GOT May Take Symbolic Steps -------------- ¶7. (C) Following a one-hour meeting with PM Erdogan on May 9, "Radikal" editor-in-chief Ismet Berkan concluded that Erdogan is optimistic about the Kurdish issue and "could undertake some symbolic steps" soon. Berkan wrote that the GOT may restore the old Kurdish names of some 12,000 villages, take steps to accelerate the opening of Kurdish-language departments at universities, and reduce the continuing time restrictions for Kurdish-language TV broadcasting (Note: while state-run TRT-6 broadcasts in Kurdish 24 hours a day, private TV and radio stations still face significant time, content, and other restrictions on broadcasting in Kurdish. End note.) According to Berkan, the ability to take such steps, which were unthinkable ten years ago, is due to a change in the approach of the military and politicians toward the Kurdish issue. Berkan speculated that Erdogan might receive Ahmet Turk soon and "work out a compromise in key issues." He warned that DTP "is gradually emerging as a representative of hardline Kurdish nationalism" but could thwart progress if it proves unwilling "to distance itself from terror." Interior Minister Besir Atalay lent credence ANKARA 00000696 003 OF 003 to Berkan's conclusions when he told journalists May 11 that the government could accept possible requests for restoring the Kurdish names of villages in the Southeast. MFA Iraq Special Envoy Murat Ozcelik told DCM recently that the new counterterrorism undersecretariat at the Interior Ministry (ref C) is being created to deal with both the security implication of the PKK problem inside Turkey, but also stickier political issues such as amnesty and possible resettlement of Turkish Kurds returning from Iraq. -------------- Pro-PKK Kurds Still Skeptical -------------- ¶8. (C) Former Diyarbakir Bar Association chair Sezgin Tanrikulu welcomed Gul's comments but cautioned that progress could not be made without the backing of the state. DTP MP Sirri Sakik told us that Gul's statement was positive but that progress will be limited if the state continues "to refuse to take the real representative of the Kurdish people (read: DTP/PKK) as its counterpart in discussions." Reflecting what we have heard from many other Kurdish contacts, DTP member Nazmi Gur told us that the government and the state had sent mixed messages. According to Gur, "On the one hand, President Gul makes positive pronouncements. On the other hand, the state rounded up and jailed hundreds of DTP members following local elections (ref D)." Gur also noted that the military had "walked back from TGS Chief Basbug's positive statements by issuing subsequent 'clarifications.'" -------------- -------------- Comment: Progress Requires Political Will on All Sides -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) The nearly simultaneous occurrence of the Gul-Turk meeting, Basbug statements, Karayilan interview, and extensive local press commentary favoring political steps to solve the PKK and Kurdish issues underscores that this is an opportune time for Turkey to take steps to solve the Kurdish issue. Still, the ability to achieve tangible progress will depend on the willingness to compromise on the part of the government, the military and state bureaucracy, and the DTP/PKK. General Basbug's statements suggest he is relatively more open than his predecessors to a new approach, but it is unclear whether he has the support of the broader military and state establishment, much of which would likely consider "democratization" steps an inappropriate solution to a problem many see as purely terrorism. The April arrests of DTP members (ref C),over 100 of whom are still in jail without formal charges, showed the continuing state resistance to enlisting DTP as a legitimate interlocutor, and also fueled DTP's belief that neither the government nor that state are sincere in wanting to resolve the Kurdish issue. The DTP has not made the GOT's job easier, simultaneously calling for an end to violence while defending the PKK's "legitimacy." ¶10. (C) While the reforms aimed at affirming the legitimacy of Kurdish identity would be welcomed in the Southeast, process and symbolism are important as well. We continue to highlight to the GOT the need for a comprehensive approach, including taking DTP (an elected party in Parliament) as a legitimate interlocutor, eliminating restrictions on the use of Kurdish and continuing other confidence building measures in the Southeast, and working cooperatively with the Iraqi government and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the fight against the PKK. In his May 13 meeting with DTP leader Ahmet Turk, Ambassador pressed DTP to change its tactics by de-emphasizing Ocalan and by privately pressuring the PKK to stop its attacks (septel). Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey JEFFREY