TURKEY: OPPOSITION LEADERS MAKE HAY OVER GAZA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000038 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU IS SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPOSITION LEADERS MAKE HAY OVER GAZA REF: ANKARA 25 Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Israel's attacks on the Gaza Strip have hit a raw nerve in Turkey, where pro-Muslim, pro-Palestinian sentiments run deep among the masses, notwithstanding the close relations between the state and the Israeli government. With the approach of March 29 nationwide local elections, opposition leaders are taking advantage of the opportunity to apply pressure on the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) on an issue over which it has little room to maneuver. Unlikely to be held accountable for its rhetoric, the opposition can scrabble freely for cheap political points. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) The atmosphere in Turkey following Israel's attacks on Gaza has been tense and angry. Protests organized by nongovernmental organizations and fringe political parties are commonplace and almost every press organ, from mainstream to extreme, is carrying stories excoriating Israel for "massacring" women and children, most publishing full color photos of bloodied innocents. There has been no defense of Israel in public fora and only limited consideration that the actions of Hamas may have contributed to the deteriorating conditions that eventually led to hostilities. In this atmosphere, there are no points for a political party to appear moderate: just as Prime Minister Erdogan scathed against Israel in his Party Group Meeting on 7 January (reftel),so did the leaders of the major opposition parties in equal, if not stronger, terms. They also upped the ante by railing against Erdogan and the AKP. What They Said -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal was the most moderate of the major opposition party leaders in his criticism of Israel. He called the attacks "one of the darkest and most shameful pages of human history," claiming that they cannot be explained in terms of politics, diplomacy, or human rights. He also dismissed the thought that Israel could increase its security as a result of the attacks, saying, "This is not the way to make the Middle East a stable place." He concluded by calling for a cease-fire, not in the name of politics or diplomacy, but in the name of humanity. ¶4. (SBU) Devlet Bahceli, Chairman of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) was condemnatory, not only of the attacks, but also of Erdogan's efforts to mediate between the Palestinians and Israel, saying that the attacks prove such negotiations will not achieve any positive results. He then suggested that Erdogan himself may have been complicit in the attacks if Erdogan had been informed that the attacks were pending by Israeli PM Ehud Olmert in a meeting they held less than a week before. Bahceli also criticized the US, saying that no progress toward peace can be made if "the country across the ocean" gives up its project of reorganizing the Middle East by force. He summed up his speech by calling upon the AKP to change the US attitude in the Middle East; reexamine Turkey's military, political, and commercial relationship with Israel; and launch a new peace process acceptable to the Palestinians, all leveraged through Turkey's membership in the UN Security Council. ¶5. (SBU) Ahmet Turk, the Chairman of the Democratic Society Party (DTP),a party catering to Kurdish issues from a nominally socialist standpoint, fulminated against the AKP, claiming that it lacks a legitimate basis to be involved in the Arab-Israeli. Obliquely referring to the conditions of Kurds in Turkey, he railed, "First put things in order in your own house." He also intimated that Erdogan learned in advance from Olmert that the attacks would happen and had failed to prevent them. He accused the Turkish military of complicity in the attacks by dint of conducting joint training missions with Israeli pilots. He also culminated his argument by calling upon Erdogan to cancel all relations with Israel. But he alleged that Erdogan is too cowardly and weak to stand up against a country to which he is attached with an "umbilical cord," alluding to a popular series of sensationalist books which claim that high-ranking members of the AKP, including Erdogan and his wife, have deep ties to the Zionist movement. ANKARA 00000038 002 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The opposition parties are, no doubt, outraged by the Israeli attacks, but their reactions are sculpted by the nation-wide local election campaign already underway. All the parties have unleashed their attack dogs on Israel, but the leaders' comments in particular reveal how they are angling to undermine the AKP. ¶7. (C) Baykal's reaction was surprisingly subdued, in relative terms. Although he may have missed the opportunity to appear balanced and statesmanlike (in comparison to Erdogan) by recognizing Israel's right to self-defense and a demanding an end to Hamas rocket attacks, he limited his rhetoric to condemnation of Israel with few attacks on the AKP. He may recognize the secular CHP cannot pull many votes from AKP on the issue of the Middle East. The voters who are most likely to be offended by any perceived lack of action on AKP's part will be on the religious wing of the political spectrum where CHP is weakest. Baykal also refrained from calling for total disengagement from Israel, knowing full well that his allies in the military and among the Istanbul and Izmir business elite benefit greatly from the Turkish-Israeli bilateral relationship. ¶8. (C) Bahceli and Turk, however, pulled out all the stops, doing their best to hit AKP hard amongst its core voters, a bloc vulnerable to inroads by both MHP and DTP. Bahceli appealed to the nationalist sentiments of the Turkish people, claiming that Turkey is powerful enough to influence the powers that be -- especially the United States -- and to punish Israel for its actions, but not while under the control of the AKP. This message may resound in the Anatolian heartland where nationalism is strong and MHP has its best chances of unseating incumbent AKP mayors. Turk appealed to his constituent Kurds by comparing, albeit indirectly, the plight of the Palestinians in Israel to that of the Kurds in Turkey. His call for Erdogan to put his own house in order and his accusations of cowardice and weakness are attempts to detract from AKP's recent moves to curry the Kurds with Kurdish language policy changes. This rhetoric will not gain traction on a national scale, but may resonate amongst Kurds in the Southeast where an already high concentration of DTP voters threatens to unseat AKP incumbents. Such prolonged irresponsible rhetoric risks increasing enmity among the Turkish populace toward Israel, fueling anti-Semitism and hardening anti-Western sentiment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey Jeffrey