DP AND ANAP: THE SAD FATE OF TURKEY'S CENTER RIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000377 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019 TAGS: OSCE PGOV TU SUBJECT: DP AND ANAP: THE SAD FATE OF TURKEY'S CENTER RIGHT REF: 07 ANKARA 1875 Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Democrat Party (DP) and Motherland Party (ANAP) were once the dominant powers in the Turkish center right, but have fallen on hard times with the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002. AKP now holds sway over their conservative voter base. Neither DP nor ANAP is likely to make any significant gains in nationwide local elections on March 29, but their decline serves as an object lesson for understanding the role of the right in Turkey, and thus the AKP. End summary. RISE AND FALL -------------- ¶2. (C) The DP has a long history as Turkey's primary center right party, representing the conservative, agricultural heartland of Turkey. It traces its roots to the Justice Party of Adnan Menderes and Celal Bayar, which won an overwhelming majority against national hero Ismet Inonu and his Republican People's Party in Turkey's first multi-party elections in 1950. Overthrown and banned by the military in 1960, it resurfaced as the Democrat Party, whose leader, Suleyman Demirel led a number of coalition governments through the 1960s and 1970s. With Demirel and the party banned following the military coup of 1980, the Motherland Party of Turgut Ozal mobilized DP's voter base and came to power as a single-party government in 1983. Demirel reentered politics in 1987, and his True Path Party (DYP) fought tooth and nail with ANAP for the center right. Inter- and intra-party acrimony, leadership changes, and widespread corruption throughout the 1990s led to a chain of miserable defeats for both parties, causing center-right voters to drift to overtly nationalist and religious parties. ¶3. (C) Today it is AKP that holds predominance in the part of the political spectrum that was dominated by DP and ANAP in the past. All three encompass a number of closely related social sectors including religious conservatives, Kurds, moderate nationalists, and small-to-medium business owners. All three rose to power by defining themselves in opposition to the state establishment, effectively assuming and capitalizing on the role of underdog. All three oversaw periods of one-party rule marked by economic development but also constant tension with an antagonistic military and state bureaucracy. The fate of DP and ANAP today should serve as a lesson and warning to AKP after seven years of political dominance. WHERE THEY ARE NOW -------------- ¶4. (C) In separate conversations with us on March 9, veteran politicians Mehmet Keciciler (ANAP) and Salim Ensarioglu (DP) both described frankly the pathetic state into which their parties have fallen. Keciciler noted that it is natural for a party to leave power, particularly after a long run as a single-party government, saying, "No airplane can stay in the air forever, no matter how well it flies," but he also volunteered ANAP made great mistakes. Ensarioglu made similar statements, focusing on the inability of the previous generation of leaders to change with Turkey's shifting political environment. As the DP party administration became fatigued and unimaginative, jaded voters began to migrate to untried parties or to charismatic leaders who promised more creative leadership. ¶5. (C) Neither man has any expectation of party success in local elections, but they boast that the spirits of their parties are visible in the attitudes of the people. Keciciler pointed out although ANAP has been selling its provincial headquarters buildings one by one to stay in the black, former ANAP members are running under other parties' banners all over the country, noting especially Adana, where the AKP and Nationalist Action Party (MHP) candidates are both former ANAP members. He also said that throughout the Southeast, Turgut Ozal's picture is prominently displayed in a multitude of shops and cabs, a testament to his early efforts to reconcile the Turkish Republic and its Kurdish citizens. Ensarioglu also notes how prominent Kurds were in ANKARA 00000377 002 OF 002 the DP political structure, claiming that DP, too, fought hard to bring Turks and Kurds together. He argued that DP, by promoting religiosity within a national structure, had helped prevent religious extremism and had laid the ground for AKP's efforts to do the same. (Note: We have on multiple occasions seen AKP campaign pamphlets depicting PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan's portrait flanked by Menderes and Ozal, indicating that AKP is deliberately trying to claim the legacy of DP and ANAP. End Note.) NO FUTURE -------------- ¶6. (C) Both Keciciler and Ensarioglu predicted that their parties' futures were bleak. Neither was optimistic that ANAP and DP could merge, claiming that the failed 2007 merger attempted by former chairmen Erkan Mumcu and Mehmet Agar had created a permanent barrier between the two parties (REFTEL). Nor did they show any confidence in their current party leaders (Salih Uzun in ANAP, Suleyman Soylu in DP). Ensarioglu foresees a massive change in leadership at DP after the elections, which may create a more dynamic party, but he didn't sound convinced himself that such a restructuring would revitalize his party. Keciciler was hopeful that a group of veteran politicians, including former PM Mesut Yilmaz, former Deputy PM Husamettin Ozkan, and former FM Hikmet Cetin, would create a new political entity on top of ANAP's Istanbul party structure with support from media Mogul Aydin Dogan. He described this movement as spanning the center left and center right, sporting young faces supported by the network of veterans. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) AKP has successfully captured the center right and currently finds itself comfortably maintaining its position there. Both DP and ANAP show that occupying such a position does not equal political inevitability. Both parties' declines were the result of a loss of novelty, leadership change, and rampant corruption. Their decline became ostensibly irreversible when both fought to occupy the same political space, putting politics above leadership. Spent of legitimacy, neither is likely to recover. With allegations of corruption hovering over the heads of a number of ministers and mayors in the current government, AKP would serve itself well to heed the lessons of the past it so aspires to emulate. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey Jeffrey