TURKEY: CHP LEADER BAYKAL WARNS ABOUT DEMOCRATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000314 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: CHP LEADER BAYKAL WARNS ABOUT DEMOCRATIC SLIDE Classified By: Ambassador James F. Jeffrey, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Turkey's democratic development has regressed since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) took office in 2002, chief opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairman Deniz Baykal told Ambassador February 24. Turkey is more prosperous, he said, but corruption is "unbelievably" high and the media and judiciary more pressured than at any other time under civilian rule since the 1950s. Baykal posited that a result for AKP of below 47 percent (the vote percentage AKP won in 2007 national elections) in March 29 local elections would "start a discussion" (on fresh elections),but did not define clearly what CHP would define as a victory for his party, or a strategy for how it intended to increase its share of votes. He predicted victory in the CHP stronghold of Izmir. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Consistent with the more statesmanlike appearance he has sought to project in recent weeks, particularly with foreign audiences, Baykal welcomed the Ambassador warmly and did not betray any of the anti-Americanism that has infected CHP discourse in the past. Reflecting on the underlying social currents that he said define where Turkey stands on issues such as Armenia, the Middle East, and terrorism, Baykal asked rhetorically: Is Turkey today closer to Europe? Are its Western values stronger, or are we shifting to something different? Is the media more free? Is society more pluralistic and democratic? Do normal Turkish citizens feel more free? If Turkey continues toward non-Western values and politics, he said, the expectations the West had of Turkey in the past will be frustrated. ¶3. (C) Baykal said Turkey is more prosperous than at any other time in its history, but maintained that in all other areas -- democracy, civil rights, media, judiciary, higher education, trade unions -- Turkey is less free than it was before the AKP came to power in 2002. He lamented that, in his view, Turkey's democratic development has regressed for the first time since the 1950s under a civilian government; it used be the military that set back Turkey's democracy. He said the media and judiciary have never been as squeezed as they are now, pointing to the $850 million fine levied against the Dogan Media Group (septel); the unacceptable methods employed in the Ergenekon investigation that are inconsistent with international judicial standards; silenced unions; and telephone tapping being directed personally by the PM, without any oversight. He called government corruption "unbelievable," and made clear that AKP should not be labeled conservative, describing it instead as a "Peronist regime." Unlike Erdogan, previous conservative leaders, like Ozal and Demirel, were pro-Western and pro-Europe. ¶4. (C) Baykal suggested that CHP did not expect to make a big dent in the AKP vote in March 29 local elections. He posited that, since local elections favor the ruling national party, AKP would have to do at least as well as it did in national elections (47 percent) to be successful. Less than that and he predicted a "discussion would start" (about calling fresh national elections). He did not foresee a CHP victory in the Istanbul mayoral race, but expected to do better than in 2004; was surprisingly demure about the party's chances in Ankara (which some polls predict could go CHP's way); but predicted confidently victory in the CHP stronghold of Izmir. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey Jeffrey