TURKISH VIEWS ON HANDLING IRAN AND SYRIA AT THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000284

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS KNNP IAEA TU IR SY
SUBJECT: TURKISH VIEWS ON HANDLING IRAN AND SYRIA AT THE
IAEA BOARD OF GOVERNORS

REF: ANKARA 126

Classified By: CDA Doug Silliman for reason 1.4 (b, d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) UNVIE Senior Advisor Andrea Hall, accompanied by
Mission Turkey officers, met February 17 in Ankara with
Turkish IAEA Governor Hakan Fidan and separately with the GOT
Nonproliferation Task Force chaired by MFA Nonproliferation
and Disarmament Deputy Director General Ahmet Gun to
encourage strong Turkish statements on Iran and Syria at the
upcoming IAEA Board meeting. Fidan and Gun underscored
Turkey's opposition to an Iranian nuclear weapons program,
insisted that Turkey deliver blunt messages in private to
Iran's leadership, and urged the USG to engage Iran directly.
Turkey believes Syria wants to come clean and rehabilitate
itself and that the March Board can help "close the book" on
the issue. Turkey claimed its Iran and Syria statements will
track closely with the findings from DG ElBaradei's most
recent reports. Gun also reiterated Turkey's general
concerns about proposals on nuclear fuel access and
guarantees as well as the draft NSG ENR guidelines, asserting
that Turkey does not want to give up the right to pursue
future energy-related fuel cycle technologies although it has
no current intention to pursue enrichment. He asked the US
to work with Turkey ahead of the next NSG meeting to find an
acceptable compromise on the ENR guidelines. End Summary.


Fidan on Iran: Turkey will stay firm,
but US should engage Iran
--------------


2. (C) Senior Advisor Hall told Fidan that the USG wanted to
consult closely with Turkey and other IAEA Board of Governors
members to ensure statements at the March meeting would
express clear support for the IAEA's ongoing investigation of
safeguards concerns in Iran. The USG hopes Board members
will make strong statements calling on Iran to cooperate
fully with the IAEA and suspend all proliferation-sensitive
nuclear activities, in accordance with its IAEA and UN
Security Council obligations. Hall noted that that DG
ElBaradei's most recent Iran report (circulated to Board
members February 19) would confirm that: Iran has continued
to ignore the IAEA's requests for cooperation, continued to
enrich uranium at its Natanz enrichment facility, and may be
close to producing enough low-enriched uranium gas to provide
the fissile material for of a nuclear weapon if further
enriched to weapons grade.


3. (C) Hall recalled the US Intelligence Community's 2007
NIE which assessed that although Tehran halted its nuclear
weapons design and weaponization activities in 2003, it
continues to pursue a uranium enrichment program to at a
minimum keep open the option to develop nuclear weapons. She
pointed to DNI Blair's February 12 Congressional testimony in
which he asserted that Iran also continues to work on
projects with commercial and conventional military
applications, some of which could be of limited use for
nuclear weapons. Another important conclusion from the 2007
NIE, she added, was that strong, unified international
pressure on Iran can change the Iranian regime's policy
calculations. 2009 will be a critical year on Iran, she
underscored. The IAEA Board and international community
cannot afford to allow Iran to stonewall the IAEA's
investigation. Board members must remain unified in keeping
the pressure on Iran to fully comply with IAEA and UNSC
requirements.


4. (C) Fidan welcomed consultations with the USG on Iran and
outlined Turkey's views on Iran's nuclear program: Turkey
strongly opposes an Iran with a nuclear weapons capability
and fully supports and implements UNSC resolutions on Iran.
Turkey recognizes that a nuclear Iran would be a threat to
Turkey, to the region, and to the global nonproliferation
regime. At the November 2008 Board meeting, Fidan said,
Turkey's statement clearly called on Iran to cooperate fully
with the IAEA. Turkey delivers even blunter messages to Iran
in private and at the highest levels, he claimed, telling
Iran that it would be "a disaster" for Iran and the region if
it developed a nuclear weapons capability. Iran typically
responds that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful and
that a past religious fatwa prohibits Iran from seeking
nuclear weapons.


5. (C) Turkey strongly opposes the use of force to stop
Iran's nuclear program and believes that only a diplomatic
approach can resolve the issue, Fidan emphasized. Turkey's
overriding goal is to support a peaceful, stable Middle East.
Fidan recounted a discussion with IAEA DG ElBaradei in

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November, in which ElBaradei insisted that it was up to
states themselves, not just the IAEA, to find a solution that
addresses both international and Iranian concerns. Turkey
agrees, and believes that the only way to secure Iran's
agreement to suspend its fuel cycle programs and cooperate
with the IAEA is to make those goals part of a part of
comprehensive agreement with the US and the international
community. Fidan cited the Six Party talks with the DPRK as
an indicator that diplomacy can work in tough cases. Such a
comprehensive agreement would not be possible without direct
USG engagement of Iran, Fidan surmised. Turkey would fully
support and, if requested, facilitate such engagement. "We
are always willing to
help mediate or pass any messages." The DCM encouraged
Turkey to continue working with and through the P5 1 and EU
Council SG Solana.


6. (C) Hall explained that the USG was undertaking an Iran
policy review which would take at least several more weeks to
compete. However, the current administration remains focused
on concerns about Iran's nuclear program and support for
terrorism and remains committed to working with the P5 1 and
other partners. Even as the USG's policy review continues,
we want to ensure that IAEA Board members in March continue
to encourage Iran to comply with UNSC obligations and
cooperate fully with the IAEA. Fidan said the Turkish BOG
statement had not yet been drafted, but said it would draw
directly from the DG report's findings. Hall urged Fidan and
the Turkish delegation to the Board also attend the
Secretariat's planned technical briefing on its Iran
investigations, as such briefings frequently provide useful
information that does not necessarily appear in the DG's
reports.


7. (C) DCM pointed out that the international community had
already made a good faith effort to engage Iran in June 2006,
submitting a proposal that would reward Iran with
wide-ranging incentives and cooperation if it complies with
UNSC obligations. Iran never replied constructively to that
offer, even after U/S Burns joined P5 1 colleagues meeting
directly with Iranian negotiators in Geneva in July 2008.
Fidan suggested that Iran feels more secure now, with the USG
withdrawing from Iraq and tied down in Afghanistan. Iran
also believes the USG is no longer considering a military
option. Fidan noted that more international pressure on Iran
could help compel Iran to approach possible engagement and
negotiations more constructively. He urged that the USG and
international community do more to "empower Iran's middle
class" to gain more influence vis--vis Iran's hardliners in
the military and clergy over Iranian foreign policy.
Ultimately, Turkey hopes the USG will decide to engage Iran
with "mutual respect" and consider offering Iran a "more
comprehensive" settlement to resolve the nuclear issue and
bring Iran back into the international community. "Turkey is
ready to help," he said.

Syria: Ready to rehabilitate
--------------


8. (C) Turning to Syria, Fidan assessed that the 2007
Israeli strike against a suspected Syrian nuclear facility
likely destroyed the Syrian program. "I doubt Syria has
anything left. Now it is just a question of how to close the
story." Turkey has "intensive" bilateral contacts with
Syria, and believes Syria will not follow Iran's path of
continuing to seek an undeclared nuclear capability.
Instead, Turkey believes that Syria is ready to clean the
slate and take steps to rehabilitate itself in the eyes of
the international community. In that case, the DCM pointed
out, Syria should take the immediate step of cooperating with
the IAEA and allowing IAEA access to the three other
requested sites. We hope Turkey will use the Board meeting
to make that clear to Syria. Hall added that the previous
DG's report on Iran strongly hinted that the destroyed site
was indeed an undeclared nuclear reactor, a clear violation
of Syria's safeguards obligations, and that Syria needed to
come clean about the extent of that undeclared program.


9. (C) DCM explained that a decision by Syria to cooperate
fully with the IAEA and come clean about its nuclear
activities will improve its international standing. The USG
wants Syria to act as a responsible member of the
international community, but Syria must change its policies
on its nuclear program and supporting terrorist groups.We
hope Turkey at the IAEA Board will send a clear message to
Syria on the steps it must take with the IAEA. Fidan took
onboard our request, offering that if Syria is found to be
continuing any undeclared nuclear activities, Turkey "would
have big problems with that," but also argued that Turkey's
November statement on Iran was tough.


10. (C) Fidan summarized that "Turkey goes by the book. We

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will base our position on the DG report's findings and
Syria's safeguards obligations." He agreed that, pending
review of the DG's report, Board members should encourage
Syria to fully cooperate with the IAEA, come clean about its
undeclared nuclear activities, and pledge to fully respect
and implement its safeguards obligations. However, he
cautioned, Syria would need confidence that the international
community would not use its openness against it, for example
by reporting Syria to the UNSC. "Fidan instructed his staff
to have Turkey's IAEA delegation attend the IAEA technical
briefings on both Syria and Iran, and pledged to consult
closely with the USG delegation in Vienna.

Views from GOT Nonproliferation and Regional Experts
-------------- --------------


11. (C) We raised similar points on Iran and Syria with the
Turkish inter-agency group convened by the MFA. The group,
led by Deputy Director General for Arms Control and
Disarmament Ahmet Gun, included representatives from the MFA,
Customs, Turkish National Police, the Turkish General Staff
and the Turkish Atomic Energy Agency, (TAEK). Gun and MFA
South Asia Department Head Devrim Ozturk laid out Turkey's
views on Iran's nuclear program, mirroring Fidan's earlier
remarks: Turkey opposes a nuclear weapons-capable Iran, but
wants to see the conflict resolved diplomatically. "Either
outcome -- a nuclear Iran or armed conflict with Iran - would
be a disaster for us." Ozturk, who was DCM in Turkey's
Tehran embassy until 2007, confirmed that Turkey was
delivering blunt messages in private to Iran's leadership but
avoiding harsh language in public, because the Iranian regime
craves respect and reacts badly to harsh public language.
"As you undertake your policy review, please consider the
value of speaking in respectful tones; Iran listens to this."
Gun underscored that Turkey supports and implements UNSC
obligations on Iran, and looks to the IAEA reports as the
primary source of international authority and legitimacy in
assessing the status of Iran's nuclear program.


12. (C) Ozturk added that Turkey aims to balance its
concerns about Iran with a stable bilateral relationship. He
added that Turkey has important economic and commercial
interests with Iran and enjoys wide people-to-people contacts
with the Iranian population, hosting over one million Iranian
tourists each year, although he acknowledged that the two
governments have "irreconcilable world views." Turkey is the
only NATO member that has regular high-level contacts with
Iran, and thus could be useful if the international community
needs assistance in conveying messages directly to Iran's
leaders. Ozturk cautioned that any new international
measures imposed on Iran before the June presidential
elections could strengthen Ahmadinejad's re-election
prospects. Turkey welcomes the campaign pledges from
President Obama that he would consider seeking engagement
with Iran "without preconditions" and hopes to see such
engagement soon.


13. (C) Gun added that Turkey also takes its export control
obligations seriously, citing the recent GOT decision to
block the transit of a suspect Iranian shipment to Venezuela
(reftel),and probed on whether the USG was considering
modifying the "freeze-for-freeze" proposal. He also urged
that if the USG is considering offering any form of regional
security dialogue or other regional CSBMs, Turkey would like
to be closely consulted. Hall replied that the USG welcomes
clear, firm messages from Turkey to Iran, in pubic and in
private, that Iran must meet its obligations. The more firm
and unified the IAEA Board messages to Iran, the more
pressure Iran will feel to comply. Until the USG's Iran
policy review is complete, however, we cannot speculate on
the nature of future offers, new incentives, or possible
engagement modalities with Iran.

Syria: Engagement Urged
--------------


14. (C) Gun said Turkey highly values its bilateral
relations with Syria and believes its experience hosting
proximity talks gives Turkey a better understanding of how to
engage Syria effectively. Syria has the ability to either
positively or negatively affect the region. Isolating Syria
will push it to act more negatively. Engagement will move
Syria to act more constructively, and will pull Syria away
from Iranian influence. Gun described Turkish IAEA Governor
Fidan's November 2008 Board statement on Iran as tough, and
pledged that Turkey will continue to call on Syria to
cooperate fully. "But how you speak is as important as what
you say."


15. (C) Gun asked for our views on Syrian claims that the
uranium traces discovered by the IAEA at the site may have
come from Israeli armaments. Hall said the US does not find

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this claim credible and hoped the IAEA would share a similar
assessment with the Board in its report or technical
briefing. Gun suggested that Israel should be encouraged to
openly answer Syrian allegations on this. In addition, Gun
felt that Syria allegations reflected the frustration of
other countries in the region towards the west's
"double-standard" regarding Israel's nuclear program, and
urged that Israel take steps to address those concerns.

Multilateral Fuel Guarantees
--------------


16. (C) Speaking candidly, Gun said Turkey had concerns
about proposals for reliable access to nuclear fuel and that
the USG proposal to review Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) draft
guidelines for the transfer of enrichment and reprocessing
technology was unhelpful to Turkey. Turkey supports the goal
of preventing nuclear proliferation, but as a country seeking
peaceful nuclear power, it is not willing to sign away its
rights to technologies that it might eventually need to
support its nuclear energy program. "No subjective criteria
should be imposed on Turkey, which is a specific and special
case." He added that Turkey expects written proposals from
the USG in time to consider them. "We need to find mutually
acceptable wording to paragraphs six and seven at the next
NSG meeting in March. We are not looking to create a problem
with the US, but this is a fundamental Turkish view."
Moreover, he recalled when the US first shared the Global
Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) principles with Turkey,
Washington only gave Ankara ten days to review and respond.
"We felt very rushed." He noted that Turkey is still
considering these proposals.


17. (C) Gun summarized Turkey's views on multilateral fuel
supply and guarantees as follows: First, any such mechanism
should not disrupt the international nuclear fuel market.
Second, the IAEA's involvement in any such mechanism is
indispensible. Third, the mechanism should be open to
widespread participation on a voluntary basis. Hall
confirmed that the USG shares those views, and pledged to
convey Gun's concerns to USG.

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Jeffrey