Iranians Unchanged By Ashura Protest

UNCLAS ANKARA 001847 SIPDIS E.O. 12958:N/A TAGS: CVIS PREL PINS PGOV PHUM SOCI SCUL TU IR SUBJECT: Iranians Unchanged By Ashura Protest ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: CONOFFs surveyed Iranian non-immigrant visa (NIV) and immigrant visa (IV) applicants following the Sunday, December 27, 2009 Ashura protests in Iran. None of the applicants participated in the protests nor did any have contact with protest participants. Most applicants were skeptical that the protest movement in Iran would have any effect, citing the lack of opposition leadership and a lack of will among the overall population in support of the opposition. Most applicants, though upset about the June elections, prefer to continue with their daily lives. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Although the images seen in recent reporting of the Ashura protest were dramatic, the level and scope of participation appears to remain limited to a segment of the student population. None of the applicants, who included students, reported participation in the Ashura activities despite being present in Tehran that Sunday. An Amir Kabir University professor reported that his campus was one of the centers of the protest activity, but noted protest efforts are of little effect especially as the opposition is leaderless and loosely organized. He added that unspecified satellite broadcasts from outside the country urged Iranians to protest on Ashura. 3 (SBU) A Shahid Beheshti University professor said that the protesters were limited to students. He hesitantly said that, instead of offering students opportunities, the government "beats them down." Although he was unsure of any effective result of the protest movement, he fears the situation will get worse for the protesters. He added that older Iranians and even students such as his daughter continue to live their lives without any interference by focusing on their regular work, and daily routines. The son of a wealthy Tehrani iron manufacturer going to study in the U.S. noted that many young people such as he just want to live their lives and are not interested in putting themselves at risk. A Tehrani robotics PHD candidate and her husband said they avoided the streets on Sunday to avoid the violence. A dental surgeon from Karaj said, despite unhappiness with the June presidential elections, for professionals such as himself who have families and successful careers, there is too much at risk to join the opposition. He said it is the single, and unemployed, those that have nothing to lose who fuel the protest movement. ¶4. (SBU) A Tehrani Volvo representative in his thirties noted that the protest in Tehran was large because the student-age population is large. He explained that after the revolution the Islamic leadership urged Iranians to have more children to increase "Islam's population." He added that as a result of this policy, there is a large population of young and single highly-educated, but underpaid or unemployed Iranians. Some provide support for the opposition. His wife added that the problem is that the students and the government do not know how to communicate with each other. Both hoped that the two sides will soon resolve their issues, and added that most Iranians disdain violence, and want a return to calm. ¶5. (SBU) A wealthy structural materials producer and his wife, a part-time professor at Islamic Azad University in Tehran, believe the situation will ultimately calm down. They noted that if people do not bother themselves with politics they can live good lives in Iran. He added that within the government itself, there are differences about how to move forward. They both agreed that improved relations with the U.S. would ease tensions, and help open up the country politically. A retired teacher from Tehran and her husband said that they believe the government will have to listen to the problems of the students, and only through talks may a solution be worked out. ¶6. (SBU) A Kashani woman with a daughter in college noted that although there was unrest especially in Tehran and Isfahan, there was nothing significant in other cities and towns such as Kashan. Applicants from Iranian Kurdistan also reported no unrest this past Sunday and added that the political environment in their province has been generally calm. The Kashani woman added that the youth of Iran now choose between two paths. She said that as the youth did not experience the 1979 revolution some choose the path of protest (much like her generation did) to seek something new with the assumption that it will be better. The other path many youth choose is to join the military or Basij as it offers stability and security. She added that overall Iranians prefer to continue their lives as they are rather than support a movement with unknown consequences. ¶7. (SBU) Only two applicants believed the protest movement significant. One was a young computer programmer from Tehran who said that her brother and cousin witnessed a man shot in front of them. She said the "people" are upset with the government for "stealing their oil money" and want real democracy. She noted that the internet was the only organizing tool the protesters use. She was hopeful that Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karoubi would soon adjust their positions to better support the protest movement. A Tehrani insurance business owner said that people want a new system of government, and that lack of leadership was unimportant as the "people are the leaders." ¶8. (SBU) Despite government crackdowns on the opposition, Embassy Ankara has had no recent contact with Iranian political asylum seekers. Since the June 2009 post-election protests, Embassy Ankara has had contact with a total of three Iranians seeking political asylum as a result of the recent unrest. ¶9. (SBU) COMMENT: Although the images from the December 27 Ashura protest appear dramatic, based on the overall indifferent and often hesitant reaction during the past few months from the general Iranian population including many students, it appears that support for the opposition continues to remain limited to a mostly self-driven movement composed of the most enthusiastic student supporters. Despite general discontent with the June 2009 elections, abandoning the current secure albeit imperfect but familiar system seems unlikely even if opposition leaders were to emerge. END COMMENT. JEFFREY