(C) TURKISH GOALS FOR A JANUARY MNFI INTEL TEAM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001846 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE AND NEA/I; BAGHDAD: PLEASE PASS TO PRTS ERBIL AND NINEWA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PTER PINR MARR TU IZ SUBJECT: (C) TURKISH GOALS FOR A JANUARY MNFI INTEL TEAM VISIT TO ANKARA REF: A. BAGHDAD 3321 ¶B. ANKARA 1755 Classified By: A/POL Counselor Jeremiah Howard; reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: Turkish ambassador to Iraq Murat Ozcelik contends MNF-I intelligence support is key to a new cooperative GoT-KRG effort to reduce and ultimately dispose of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. Turkish Minister of Interior Besir Atalay reportedly secured President Barzani's agreement to the new effort by arguing that unchecked PKK violence is stoking enmity against the KRG among Turks. The GoT is considering January 15 for a possible visit to Ankara by an MNF-I intelligence team. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (S) Murat Ozcelik told us December 28 MNF-I intelligence support, especially signals intelligence and UAVs, is key to a new cooperative GoT-KRG effort to isolate, reduce and ultimately dispose of the terrorist PKK leadership harboring in northern Iraq. Ozcelik said KRG President Massoud Barzani had agreed to the effort during his discussions December 20 in Erbil with visiting Turkish Minister of Interior Atalay (REF A). ¶3. (C) As reported by Ozcelik, Atalay told Barzani the December 7 PKK ambush and killing of seven Jandarma in Tokat province threatened to revive anti-Kurdish enmity among Turks and introduce a serious impediment to improving relations between Ankara and Erbil. Atalay argued Barzani could remove that impediment by backing up his welcome public criticisms of PKK violence with a decision now to act jointly with Turkey against the terrorist organization's leaderhsip. Barzani reportedly concurred and promised Atalay "all the support" Turkey needs. ¶4. (S) According to Ozcelik, KRG Minister of Interior Karim Sinjari told Atalay's delegation the PKK leadership is vulnerable to fracturing, an opinion gaining traction among Turkish national security agencies (REF B). "Reconcilables," Sinjari contended, could be peeled away from the hard core of terrorists through intelligence, pressure and persuasion and reintegrated into Turkish, Syrian and Iraqi society. The reduced group of irreconcilables could be disposed of through military force. Sinjari emphasized military targeting of the core irreconcilables would have to be "perfect" to minimize political blowback against the KRG. He claimed KRG human intelligence had penetrated the PKK sufficiently to enable assessments of individual leader's predisposition towards reconciliation; however, USG "technical means" were critical to effective targeting. Offering a contrasting personal view, Ozcelik told us the GoT would be satisfied if core irreconcilibles were exiled "to a Gulf state," rather than killed. ¶5. (S) Ozcelik said Atalay and MNF-I CG GEN Odierno had discussed a possible intel team visit to Ankara during their December 19 meeting in Baghdad. Turkey is considering proposing January 15 for the visit. The MNF-I team would be hosted by Atalay. Turkish National Intelligence (MIT) Undersecretary Taner, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Undersecretary Sinirlioglu and Turkish General Staff (TGS) Deputy Chief GEN Guner would attend. Given the critical importance of the meeting to the GoT, Ozcelik said, the Turks would like Odierno to lead his intelligence team. ¶6. (S) Ozcelik noted the Ministry of Interior, MFA and MIT support the cooperative effort with the KRG against the PKK. TGS, he said, remains skeptical of Barzani and his promises. It would prefer to circumvent the KRG and pressure the USG to act directly against the PKK. Despite TGS' reservations, ANKARA 00001846 002 OF 002 Ozcelik said, the December 19 Trilateral Mechanism meeting, the December 20 meeting between Atalay and Barzani in Erbil, a possible January 10 meeting between Odierno and Barzani and a mid-January visit to Ankara by the MNF-I intel team would serve to increase progressively the psychological pressure on the PKK leadership and its potential reconcilables. Ozcelik plans his own meeting soon with Nechirvan Barzani with the goal of implementing the cooperative effort with the KRG against the PKK by the March 21 Nevruz holiday: "We believe the PKK plans to use the holiday to increase violence against us." ¶7. (C) COMMENT: The PKK refuge in the Kandil mountains remains the single biggest hindrance to the realization of Turkey's potential as a countering influence to Iran and agent of stabilization in Iraq. JEFFREY "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"