AKP'S NATIONAL UNITY PROJECT: UNITING OR DIVIDING?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001791 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2019 TAGS: PGOV TU SUBJECT: AKP'S NATIONAL UNITY PROJECT: UNITING OR DIVIDING? REF: A. ANKARA 1782 ¶B. ANKARA 1764 ¶C. ANKARA 1755 ¶D. ANKARA 1749 Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) National Unity Project has encountered many difficulties, not the least of which is its own lack of planning and coordination inside the Party for implementation. As reforms continue to be accredited to the Project or implemented anew, society is becoming polarized on the nature of the Project and whether it will have any impact on improving the situation of Kurds, or any other minority group. While the AKP is committed to continuing the Project at all costs, it needs to show that it is doing more than improvisation, preferably by announcing, passing, and implementing something related to the Project -- openly. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) The GOT's journey to reach out to Kurds -- and in so doing to provide better rights for all minorities -- has gone down a bumpy road. Early encouragement to start using Kurdish language openly in public and in political arenas was popularly accepted by the Kurds, although they criticized its implementation because it was not within a permanent, legal framework. The AKP's agreement to receive a group of Kurdish returnees from Northern Iraq similarly received a hot and cold reception, with exuberant pro-PKK crowds greeting the returnees, and incredulous reactions from Turks in the West, whose anger was further stoked by the media portrayal of the event. After three months of debate and criticism of the Project by all sides in the press, with no clear direction by the AKP to explain or promote it, its introductory debate parliament degenerated into vitriol and fisticuffs. A month later, the PKK -- with whom the GOT said it would not negotiate -- and elements in the Democratic Society Party (DTP) -- the AKP's most needed ally on the Project -- put on the brakes and insisted that the AKP use jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan as its interlocutor with the Kurds. Subsequently, the Constitutional Court closed the DTP, and the protests and riots that followed have hardened nationalists to reject the outreach as treasonous and separatist, and hardened the PKK to reject the outreach as politically motivated and insincere. ¶3. (C) The last four months' roller-coaster of developments in the Kurdish issue have provided ample reasons for the AKP to abandon its rhetoric about the National Unity Project. Despite considerable outreach by the AKP, neither the opposition parties, civil society organizations, the Kurds, nor the PKK have changed their misgivings. The DTP's former members have uniformly turned away from the Project, citing their need for the GOT to accept Ocalan as an interlocutor for the Kurds, which the GOT cannot do. The DTP's apparent successor party, the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) is likely to carry the same message. If the AKP's falling approval ratings are any indication, it also now risks losing electoral support to CHP and MHP in battleground provinces in parliamentary elections in 2011, because of the public's unease about the course of the Project. The GOT nevertheless insists that it will continue the Project at all costs, because it is "the right thing to do." But the real motivations behind the Project, and the path to keeping it alive, do not appear to be taking center stage. ¶4. (C) Statements made by the GOT back in August about the need for a non-military solution to the Kurdish problem clearly show the distinction between wanting to meet the needs of Kurdish citizens, and wanting to defeat the PKK. Ocalan reportedly believes the Project was established to bring about the demise of the PKK. Despite appeals from Kurds, the PKK, and members of the DTP to stop or reduce armed confrontation with the PKK while the Project is being ANKARA 00001791 002 OF 002 implemented, Turkish General Staff Chief General Ilker Basbug has repeatedly indicated that democratization is part of the solution to finally defeating Kurdish separatists Basbug's message is meant to reinforce the idea, in the minds of Kurds and skeptical Turks alike, that strengthening society leads to a stronger state. A large portion of the Kurdish population, however, has been unable to internalize that argument because many do not trust that the Project's reforms will last, and see the legal basis for helping defecting PKK members to gain moderate amnesty and reintegrate into Turkish society as weak. ¶5. (C) In order to build a lasting trust with Kurds, and to address the concerns of opposition supporters that it is trying to splinter Turkey apart from the inside by recognizing special rights for minorities, the AKP needs to open debate on constitutional reform as soon as possible. Without reforming the constitution to recognize that Turkey has many minorities, and that the rights to freedom of expression, religion and association for those minorities are protected by the constitution, Kurds will not believe the GOT intends to protect them from attacks because of their identity. Anything taken as an interim measure will be seen as an expression of good will, but nothing more. In addition, laws should be passed that allow these freedoms to be observed, at the provincial level -- for governors and mayors' offices. As long as legal protection is not in place, any gesture that is extended to allow space for the use of Kurdish (or any other language) will create anxiety that a future prosecution could still be coming. ¶6. (C) Finally, the AKP needs to muster the political will to pass legal reforms that involve rights and protections, quickly and carefully. At the moment most AKP deputies seem to support the objectives of the Project, although many are concerned about how best to proceed in convincing their constituents to support it. However, as opposition parties increase their criticism of how the Project is handled (or mishandled) by the Government, AKP members could become disenchanted and disinterested. Without appearing to rush reforms through parliament unduly, the AKP needs to pick a few good ones, and get started. Silliman "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"