4TH U.S.-TURKEY ENERGY WORKING GROUP MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001766 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EEB/S-EEE RICHARD MORNINGSTAR DOE FOR OFFICE OF RUSSIAN AND EURASIAN AFFAIRS: LANA EKIMOFF E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2019 TAGS: ENRG EPET PREL TU SUBJECT: 4TH U.S.-TURKEY ENERGY WORKING GROUP MEETING REF: A. ANKARA 1729 ¶B. ANKARA 1734 Classified By: CDA Doug Silliman for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: At the fourth session of the U.S.-Turkey Energy Working Group on December 3, the Turkish delegation proposed increased cooperation between the U.S. and Turkey to support development of Iraq's energy sector, specifically through a joint project to relaunch the Iraq Strategic Pipeline. The U.S. delegation said we would consider the proposal but noted the private sector would need to play the leading role, and both delegations agreed to meet regularly to coordinate U.S. and Turkish efforts in Iraq's energy sector. Turkish representatives said they continue to negotiate in good faith with Azerbaijan on Shah Deniz gas, but progress is blocked by the Azeris' mixing of political issues with commercial projects. The Turkish delegation requested U.S. cooperation to promote the interconnection of the Turkmen and Azeri off-shore fields in the Caspian Sea. The U.S. has been promoting this idea bilaterally, behind the scenes for some time. It is not clear whether a trilateral format to include Turkey would add any impetus. The delegations decided to hold the next working group meeting after the Iraqi elections, scheduled for early March. In a separate meeting, MFA Undersecretary Sinirlioglu suggested the two sides meet prior to the election in order to get a running start in the immediate post-election period. Cooperation with Turkey on Iraq's oil and gas sector development has the benefit of helping guide Turkish messages and strategies to fit ours. The disadvantage is that the Turks' high expectations may be dashed because much of the work needs to be done by the private sector and the USG cannot control those investment decisions. End summary and comment. ¶2. (SBU) U.S. and Turkish delegations met in Ankara December 3 for the fourth session of the U.S.-Turkey Energy Working Group. Deputy Undersecretary for Economic Affairs Hakki Akil headed the Turkish delegation, which included representatives from the MFA, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkish Petroleum Company (TPAO),and the State Pipelines Company (BOTAS). Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy Richard Morningstar led the U.S. delegation, with Ambassador Jeffrey and representatives from State and Energy. Reftels A and B report on the working group's discussions on the GoT's request for USTDA assistance with nuclear power projects and MFA's proposed "Voluntary Principles on Oil Tanker Transit through the Turkish Straits," respectively. IRAQ -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Akil commented that political and economic stability in Iraq is very important for both Turkey and the U.S. He said security and preservation of Iraq as a unified entity are the first priorities, and necessary for any other progress. In regard to economic stability, another priority is the legal system and establishment of a rule-based framework for hydrocarbon development to create a good investment climate. Akil said the GoT has raised these issues with Baghdad, as with Syria, Jordan, and other countries. He explained that cooperation between Turkey and Iraq continues. Morningstar commented that the U.S. and Turkey are in sync in regard to goals for Iraq. He said we would like to continue to work closely with the GoT on strategies that bring the central government and Erbil together to develop oil and gas for export. ¶4. (C) Noting that one of the biggest problems in Iraq is a lack of confidence between Baghdad and Erbil, Akil suggested that activities in the energy sector could foster interdependence both between the political factions in Iraq and also with Turkey. Creating interdependence would give various factions a stake in passing a legal framework for oil and gas development, which could help move things along. As a concrete proposal toward that end, he suggested working jointly to relaunch the Iraq Strategic Pipeline (ISP),which would enable Turkey to export oil from southern Iraq to export oil through Ceyhan, a port on Turkey's Mediterranean Coast, via the Kirkuk-Yumurtalik pipeline. For a second phase of the project, he suggested a natural gas pipeline could be built parallel to the ISP to export gas from southern Iraq to Turkey. He said Turkish Ambassador Ozcelik ANKARA 00001766 002 OF 003 had discussed the ISP with Iraq's deputy oil minister, and both he and Erbil representatives were favorable to relaunching the pipeline. Akil was confident of private sector interest as well. He proposed forming a consortium of U.S. and Turkish private companies and BOTAS to conduct the projects. Morningstar told the Turkish delegation we would consider the full proposal but emphasized that U.S. companies, not the USG, would need to be convinced of the merits of investing. ¶5. (C) Head of the Ministry of Energy Department for Pipelines Reha Muratoglu outlined the four areas of the memorandum of understanding signed October 15 on Prime Minister Erdogan's visit to Baghdad: a) development of a natural gas corridor, first to Turkey and then on to Europe; b) training on natural gas distribution; c) renewal of the Kirkuk-Yumurtalik pipeline agreement; and d) connecting the countries' electric grids. BOTAS and TPAO representatives stressed that Iraqi oil and gas are very important to their enterprises and the Turkish economy. The BOTAS representative said the U.S. could help by supporting Turkey to receive Iraqi oil and gas. The TPAO representative said the company had qualified to participate in Iraq's second bid round and wanted to pursue both larger oilfields as part of a consortium and smaller fields as the primary operator. He said TPAO would like to partner with U.S. companies on the bids. He added that TPAO has taken steps to show support for Iraq. The company has opened an office in Baghdad and offered assistance in training and exploration. ¶6. (SBU) Both working group delegations agreed it would be helpful to meet regularly to coordinate efforts related to the Iraqi energy sector to ensure they complement and reinforce each other. Both also agreed the next meeting would best occur after the Iraq elections, now scheduled for early March. In a later, separate meeting, MFA Undersecretary Sinirlioglu suggested the two sides meet prior to the elections in order to have our shared strategies prepared to deploy as soon as the election closes. Each delegation will prepare an inventory of its country's relevant efforts in Iraq for discussion at the next meeting. AZERBAIJAN -------------- ¶7. (C) Akil said based on conversations with Shah Deniz Consortium leadership, the GoT now believes Nabucco is not on the Azeris' agenda; they prefer to sell the gas directly to the Balkans or Italy, as they think it will give them political leverage. Akil said the Azeris are mixing political problems with gas projects. They do not plan to sell gas to Nabucco and are using price and transit fees to shift the blame to Turkey. Akil said Turkey has proposed a good price for transit: USD 2.50 per thousand cubic meter (tcm) per 100 kilometers. He claimed this rate is comparable to the Russian transit fee through Ukraine to Europe. Morningstar commented that the Russian-Ukraine relationship is not a precedent for anything. Akil said that rather than showing flexibility and negotiating for an agreement, Azerbaijan has focused its efforts on pressuring Turkey through the U.S. and EU. He said Turkey is negotiating in good faith--and will continue to do so--but "it takes two to dance." Morningstar commented that the U.S. has studiously not taken sides in the negotiations, and we maintain the position that this is a matter for Turkey and Azerbaijan to decide. He said we understand the frustrations on all sides, but feel strongly an agreement should be reached, as it is a pre-condition for any other deals to move forward. CASPIAN SEA TRANSIT -------------- ¶8. (C) Recognizing the strategic importance of transporting Turkmen gas via Azerbaijan to Turkey and via Turkey on to Europe, Turkey continues to pursue realization of the Trans-Caspian Natural Gas Pipeline project. Recognizing the difficulties of that task, however, the GoT proposed that a joint (TPAO, British Petroleum, and Petronas, the current license holder and operator of Block 1) pursue an incremental, potentially less controversial approach of connecting Turkmen and Azeri off-shore fields in the Caspian, specifically the Block 1 field or Serdar/Kepez field to the Neft Dashlari, Shah Deniz, or Azeri-Chiraq-Guneshli fields. ANKARA 00001766 003 OF 003 Akil posited these pipelines could be laid without affecting the delimitation issue and likely without Azeri objection. He proposed that the U.S. and Turkey could work together to promote the interconnection of the Turkmen and Azeri off-shore fields. Morningstar responded that we appreciate Turkey's involvement in this issue. He said we are open to cooperating and should include Caspian Sea transit on future working-group agendas. ¶9. (U) Special Envoy Morningstar cleared this cable. Silliman "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"