SECURITY AGENCIES: BARZANI KEY TO DEFEATING THE PKK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001755 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE AND NEA/I; BAGHDAD: PLEASE PASS TO PRTS ERBIL AND NINEWA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR TU IZ SUBJECT: SECURITY AGENCIES: BARZANI KEY TO DEFEATING THE PKK REF: ANKARA 1743 Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) During a recent discussion of his ministry's goals for the December 20-22 Trilateral Mechanism Ministerial in Baghdad and Erbil, Ministry of Interior (MoI) Secretary General Eyup Tepe said the Turkish General Staff, Turkish National Intelligence Organization, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and MoI view Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) President Masoud Barzani as the key to defeating the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Recalling the several visits by PM Erdogan and FM Davutoglu to Iraq since August and their consistent message to KRG officials, Tepe registered growing frustration with Barzani's perceived unwillingness to take effective steps to restrict the freedom of movement of PKK members in northern Iraq and encourage Makhmour camp residents to return to Turkey. Tepe renewed the GoT's request for USG pressure on Barzani to work with Turkey against the PKK. ¶2. (C) We noted the GoT's National Unity Project (formerly "Kurdish Opening") may have provided Barzani with the political cover he needs to urge Turkish Kurds to abandon violence and return to Turkey, and asked if the government's commitment to the project has weakened after the recent weeks of persistent civil violence among southeastern Kurds. Tepe conceded the violence is contributing to misgivings among "the politicians," but claimed they remain committed to their current course. Mentioning he had attended the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) November 21-22 conclave, he said Turkish media had exagerated the significance of the criticism voiced by several of the 13 deputies who spoke to assembled party members about the government's initiative. Critics such as Culture Minister Ertugrul Gunay and former Minister of Interior Murat Baseskioglu spoke as individuals, according to Tepe, not as leaders of factions threatening party unity. They relayed their constituents' resentment over perceived favoritism towards Turkish Kurds and worried that mismanagement of the project would erode Turkey's social cohesion. The critics' common complaint was that although senior government officials, notably Minister of Interior Atalay, had made extraordinary efforts to consult with NGOs about the project, party leaders had failed to solicit the perspectives of their own rank and file. None of the conclave's speakers advocated abandonment of the project. ¶3. (C) Tepe confessed his ministry was surprised by the scale of the violence NOW erupting among Turkish Kurds. Turkish National Police intelligence had predicted "incidents" over the Muslim Kurban Bayram holiday, but the Van and Hakkari provincial governors had told him their Democratic Society Party (the Kurd-dominated political party) mayors had not expected violence to be so widespread and apparently coordinated. Tepe claimed the violence is being directed by PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who is beginning to despair that the National Unity Project will ultimately lead to his release from prison. Alluding to incipient fractures among the PKK's most senior ranks (which he contends are exploitable),Tepe said he doubted "Kandil mountain" or DTP co-chair Ahmet Turk supported the violence. He believes both to be "pro-solution." ¶4. (C) COMMENT: GoT security agency interlocutors have told us repeatedly their goal for the National Unity Project is counterterrorism: Drying up the PKK's manpower recruitment pools within Turkey and coaxing Kurdish-Turkish PKK supporters "down from the mountain" and back across the Iraqi border so as to isolate the terrorist organization's leadership and facilitate its ultimate disposal. Even if civil unrest in southeastern Turkey frightens ruling party politicians into putting the initiative on the back burner, ANKARA 00001755 002 OF 002 these goals will still obtain. As American military forces withdraw from Iraq, we expect the GoT to increase its insistence that we pressure Barzani to help it eliminate the PKK. Silliman "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"