AZERBAIJAN EMBASSY PLANS TO LOBBY AGAINST PROTOCOLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001754 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019 TAGS: AJ AM PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN EMBASSY PLANS TO LOBBY AGAINST PROTOCOLS REF: A. ANKARA 1705 ¶B. ANKARA 1537 Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Azerbaijan Embassy was shocked by what it perceived as lukewarm support from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Turkish public for Azerbaijan's perspective on the Armenia Protocols, and plans to increase its public diplomacy efforts and take its case directly to the Turkish people. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) In a recent meeting, Azerbaijani diplomat Itibar Memmedov told us that his Embassy, under previous governments, was assured of consideration for the Azerbaijani position, and never had to do anything additional to secure government support. However, with reference to the Erdogan government, particularly in the last few years, he complained: "We don't understand what the AK Party is doing," with their domestic initiatives or relations with Armenia. "They are just creating instability and chaos." Despite the Embassy's unhappiness with the ruling party, Memmedov said he expected good relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan to continue. "Don't confuse Turkey with the AK Party," he told us, "Governments will change but the sentiments of the people toward each other remain." ¶3. (C) However, the Embassy has been disappointed with what they perceived as a lack of strong Turkish public opposition to the Turkey-Armenia Protocols. "We expected 70 million Turks to be our diaspora," Memmedov told us. The lack of stronger public opposition has prompted the Embassy to decide it must take its case directly to the Turkish people. Memmedov said they are planning to establish an Azerbaijani lobby in Turkey, which will target both the government and the public. They plan to support the lobby in a low key, quiet way. He said they will focus on working with Turkish think tanks, probably by providing them with information from Azerbaijan, and on organizing cultural events such as movies and symposiums. ¶4. (C) When we asked how long it would take to set up an effective lobby, he answered only "time is limited." Memmedov said that although things now seem quiet in the Turkish government, he believes the GOT sees April 24 approaching and will make some movement towards ratification before this date. When we asked if anything might make ratification palatable, he said withdrawal from the five rayon would be a minimum precondition. However, he was dubious about the prospect of any movement on this front, commenting that he sees the Minsk Group as ineffective. ¶5. (C) In stark contrast to Memmedov, Turkish MFA Caucasus desk officer Ela Beskardes told us Turkish public opinion remains a huge impediment in the GOT's ability to move forward with the protocols. She agreed with Memmedov that, overall, Turkish relations with Azerbaijan are positive. But her perception of Turkish public support for Azerbaijan differed from Memmedov's. She said the Turkish people do in fact strongly support Azerbaijan and this presents difficulties for the GOT. The MFA and GOT want to move forward with normalization but have to consider public opinion. Without such strong public sentiment for Azerbaijan, she said, Ankara would have a much easier time in ratifying the protocols. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: We tend to agree with the MFA that the Turkish public is overwhelmingly skeptical about the Armenia Protocols, particularly absent substantial traction on Nagorno-Karabakh. Recent public opinion polls seem to support us. One poll cited by an influential journalist showed only 28 percent of respondents in favor of Turkey-Armenia rapprochement (REF A). It is striking that the Azerbaijan Embassy interprets this as "lukewarm" support for Azerbaijan's position, and feels compelled to take action -- which will only increase the challenge confronting the GOT's ratification efforts. Silliman "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"