TURKEY: INFLUENTIAL JOURNALIST'S SOBER VIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001705 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2014 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: INFLUENTIAL JOURNALIST'S SOBER VIEW REF: ANKARA 1691 Classified By: Political Counselor Daniel O'Grady; reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On November 18 Radikal columnist Murat Yetkin, one of the most influential journalists in Turkey, provided us with a broad sweep of insights into current affairs. These included his "fatalistic" mood on the Dogan Media fine, his lament that the USG has not taken a more prominent position against this perceived abuse of governmental power, and his projection that Parliamentary action on the Armenia Protocols will be a particularly difficult sell given very low public support, according to the latest polls. We view Yetkin's opinions as representative of those held by Turkey's increasingly unsettled secular elite. END SUMMARY. ¶2. On domestic issues, Yetkin made the following points: -- The government's dogged pursuit of the Dogan Media tax case has made Dogan journalists fatalistic. They appreciated the EU's vocal criticism of the ruling party's apparent abuse of governmental power. They believe the USG's relative reserve reflected our discomfort with Dogan's near-monopoly control of some media sectors. -- Turkey's journalists and its business elite are intimidated by the ease with which the government has pursued its punitive policies against Dogan. He expects the Koc Group to be the government's next target. -- The ruling AKP is ruthless against its opponents and is consolidating power. Previous government's had done the same, but with a crucial difference: AKP no longer has a "Deep State" to keep it in check. -- Government mismanagement of its Democratic Opening initiative is engendering anti-Kurdish felling among Turks in western Anatolia. Izmir, the most liberal city in Turkey and a magnet for Kurds migrating from the southeast, reacted stongly against the visit of DTP co-chair Ahmet Turk. The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) is the key to the Democratic Opening. (Comment: Presumably because it is important to convincing the PKK that it is no longer welcome in Iraq.) -- The sparodic release of Ergenekon-related "Action Plan" documents is increasingly suspicious. The timing of the anonymous releases often concides with the government's being under fire for a policy mis-step. -- Turks widely believe the USG supports controversial Muslim cleric Fetullah Gulen. The U.S. continues to host Gulen even though charges against him have been dropped. Gulen and the Turkish General Staff (TGS) are locked in a death struggle, which is odd since TGS initially encouraged Gulenist schools. Now, the Gulenists are enormously influential, especially given their hold over the Turkish Natinal Police. Gulen is not seeking to impose Sharia in Turkey, but he aims to make the country much more Islamist. On international issues, Yetkin said: -- Erdogan will request POTUS pressure Armenia on Nagorno-Karabakh. Erdogan needs some movement there to push the protocols through parliament. A new pol reveals 98 percent approval for the government's criticism of Israel, 52 percent support for the Democratic Opening, but only 28 percent support for the rapprochement with Armenia. Erdogan has to proceed carefully. He can't just order his MPs to approve the protocols. -- Erdogan will also tell POTUS time is running out on Cyprus. If this round of talks fails, the government will seek "a two-state solution." Erdogan will not seek the appointment of a U.S. special envoy. If he were to be rebuffed, he would lose credibility. JEFFREY "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"