DEMOCRAT PARTY TRYING TO CARVE NICHE IN THE CENTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001696 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR TU SUBJECT: DEMOCRAT PARTY TRYING TO CARVE NICHE IN THE CENTER REF: A. ANKARA 1576 ¶B. ANKARA 1691 Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Turkey's Democrat Party (DP),led by Husamettin Cindoruk, is trying to create a place for itself in the center of Turkey's starkly polarized political spectrum. Carrying on the traditions of both the Justice Party of Adnan Menderes and Suleyman Demirel, and the Motherland Party of Turgut Ozal, its members and associates have told the Ambassador and our political officers that it can reach the Anatolian masses without polarizing them, and can revive Turkey's relations with the U.S., EU, and Israel. Though some of its policies are a bit behind the times -- understandable for a party which has languished outside Parliament since 2002 -- and some of its rhetoric is exaggerated, the party has potential to win votes. End summary. ¶2. (C) The Ambassador recently met with DP Chairman Husamettin Cindoruk and former President (and DP elder statesman) Suleyman Demirel in separate meetings, and Poloff met with DP Istanbul Deputy Party Chairman Korhan Kongaz. DP's pro-U.S., anti-Justice and Development Party (AKP) platform is carefully coordinated, designed to portray Turkey's center-right political lineage as trustworthy, predictable, and non-confrontational. All three men criticized AKP policies that the DP interprets as against the interests of both Turkey and the U.S. All three men used nearly identical terminology in claiming that the AKP is exploiting the issue of terrorism in the Ergenekon case while ignoring true terrorist threats. Both Demirel and Kongaz, referring to the increasing fear of everyday citizens that their phones are being tapped as part of the Ergenekon investigation, claimed that Turkey is experiencing its worst period, "even worse than the 1970s and 1980s." (Note: The 1970s was noted for violent fighting on the streets among leftist and rightist organizations; the 1980s were marked by a military coup followed by an increasingly oppressive dirty war against the Kurds in the southeast. End note.) ¶3. (C) All three men referenced Mehmet Haberal -- formerly rector of Baskent University -- saying that AKP has imprisoned one of Turkey's model citizens for allegedly conspiring to overthrow the government, but stood by idly when real PKK terrorists traveled from Iraq to Turkey amid triumphal fanfare. Demirel claimed that the DP was ready to work with the U.S. to eliminate the PKK -- provided the U.S. would be willing to offer help -- and thereby reconcile the Kurds to living in Turkey as responsible citizens. Curiously, Kongaz declared that there is no Kurdish problem in Turkey at all, just a PKK problem. ¶4. (C) Citing Prime Minister Erdogan's alienation of Israel and his over-friendliness toward Iran, Demirel lamented that AKP is turning Turkey's back on its traditional friends, Israel, the EU, and the U.S. Cindoruk told the Ambassador that with the end of the Cold War period, it has become fashionable to criticize the U.S. Portraying the Turkish political spectrum as sharply polarized, he claimed, AKP -- by creating parallel press and education systems -- has fully infiltrated the state with religious zealots, to the point that soon Turkey could "Islamize" overnight. The opposition parties have been unable to stop them because the Republican People's Party (CHP) has a Soviet-style approach to politics, and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) is not trusted by the significant Kurdish and Alevi populations in Anatolia. Cindoruk also asserted that the AKP is deliberately slowing down Turkey's EU harmonization process, claiming they are not sincere about membership and hope the process collapses under its own weight. ¶5. (C) About DP's political prospects, all three men were positive. Cindoruk claimed that in the next six months, DP will be able to rally the people back to the center with a grass-roots approach in the style of former center-right leaders Menderes, Demirel, and Ozal. Demirel is already noted in the press as ready to launch a speaking tour of Western Anatolian provinces. Kongaz was enthusiastic about DP's potential, noting that with AKP's support in (unspecified) polls as low as 18 percent, DP is likely to pass the electoral barrage to enter parliament in the next ANKARA 00001696 002 OF 002 general elections (which he expects in early 2010),and will probably be the key to forging an anti-AKP coalition government with CHP and MHP. He claims that a host of politicians in the center are considering joining DP, including Eskisehir Mayor Yilmaz Buyukersen, former Foreign Minister Hikmet Cetin, Sisli Mayor Mustafa Sarigul, former Interior Minister Saadettin Tantan, and former State Minster Abdullatif Sener. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: DP puts on a good show and certainly has potential to win votes. The political environment is indeed polarized, with increasing public dissatisfaction with the major parties in parliament. AKP's Democratic Opening, while scoring some points in the Kurdish Southeast, is costing it more support in the west and north -- areas where DP could theoretically make inroads among conservative Turks who see CHP and MHP as too secular or too racist for their tastes. Alevis, in particular, afraid of the MHP and disappointed by the CHP's increasing nationalism, may see the DP as a more palatable option. Izzetin Dogan, President of the Alevi Cem Vakfi told Consulate Istanbul that the DP may become the Alevis' preferred party as a result of perceived anti-Alevi comments made by CHP Deputy Chairman Onur Oymen. But the DP is still practically nonexistent in public opinion polls and has yet to find spokespeople with charisma to deliver its message. Demirel, Cindoruk, and former Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz have had their time in the spotlight and squandered the opportunity; the political baggage they carry will weigh against them if they alone try to carry the party. ¶7. (C) COMMENT (Cont.): The DP's enthusiastic rhetoric is also out of step with reality on a few points. If Kongaz's prediction of elections in early 2010 is correct, the DP will not have the six months Cindoruk cited as the timeframe needed for the party's rejuvenation. Demirel and Cindoruk's bleak picture of life in Turkey today seems exaggerated. Although wiretapping and detentions without charge are worrisome, they are on no greater a scale than the period of the 1980-1983 government and do not include torture and the disappearance of suspects. Likewise, though politics are polarized, there is no fighting on the streets and no general chaos as there was in the mid- to late-1970s. Furthermore, the DP's message is about ten years behind on the ever-developing issue of Kurdish identity in Turkey. JEFFREY "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"