TURKEY TO CONTINUE ACTIVIST ROLE IN MIDDLE EAST;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000169 SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/SE; NEA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2029 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ENRG KPAL TU IZ IR IS SUBJECT: TURKEY TO CONTINUE ACTIVIST ROLE IN MIDDLE EAST; COUNTER TO IRAN Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES JEFFREY FOR REASONS 1.4(B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The GOT aims to continue to play an activist role in establishing peace and stability in its neighborhood as a foreign policy priority, in large measure because of a deep distrust and fear of Iran's exhibited malevolent influence throughout the region, according to senior MFA officials. Whether discussing Iraq, Israel-Syria talks, or the Middle East Peace Process, a consistent theme of countering Iran's efforts to destabilize the region emerged. With Turkish politicians entering full campaign mode in the run-up to nationwide provincial and municipal elections at the end of March, MFA's diplomats have been working non-stop at damage control in response to public statements made by PM Erdogan and others uttered more with domestic politics in mind than how they are perceived in other countries. MFA officials assure us Turkey remains fully committed to a strong relationship with Israel, support for intra-Palestinian rapprochement which can help contribute to the Peace Process, continued efforts to drive a wedge between Iran and Syria, and a continuation of the GOT's outreach to Baghdad and Erbil to strengthen Turkey-Iraq ties. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY CONT.': In a subsequent conversation with the Ambassador, PM Foreign Policy Advisor Ahmet Davutoglu sounded generally similar notes -- see septel -- including on Iran. While also in damage control mode, however, he has a more optimistic view of the salvageability of groups like HAMAS and Hizbollah, as well as Syria, than do the realpolitik guys in the MFA. END SUMMARY Turkey's Aim Remains Peace and Stability...and Countering Iran -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) MFA Deputy U/S for Middle East Sinirlioglu and GOT Special Envoy for Iraq Ozcelik both told Ambassador in separate February 2 meetings that Turkey remains fixated on countering Iranian efforts to enhance its own influence in the Middle East by destabilizing the region. Discussing Turkey's efforts to establish a cease-fire in Gaza and the January 30 incident at Davos involving PM Erdogan and Israeli President Peres, Sinirlioglu told us he and others at MFA have worked tirelessly to reassure the Israelis the fundamentally strong relationship between Turkey and Israel continues from a GOT standpoint, including in regular phone calls between Sinirlioglu and Israeli PM foreign policy advisor Shalom Tourgeman. He noted MFA U/S Apakan has spoken with Israeli MFA DG Aharon Abramowitz as well and, in fact, Abramowitz has invited Apakan to visit Israel soon. Since Apakan had visited Israel last, MFA intends to issue an invitation to Abramowitz to come to Ankara within the next two weeks. ¶4. (C) Sinirlioglu refuted public criticism that anti-Semitism is on the rise in Turkey as a result of Israeli military action in Gaza, saying GOT officials have been careful to focus their criticism on Israel's actions in Gaza and not on the Israeli people, Jews in general, or to threaten the Turkey-Israel relationship. Ambassador pointed out that to be an effective moderator or facilitator, one must be perceived as balanced by both sides in a conflict. PM Erdogan's strong language at Davos and statements by other politicians and in the media in Turkey in recent weeks call into question, especially in Washington, and presumably in Israel, whether Turkey can indeed fill that unbiased role. ¶5. (C) Sinirlioglu noted that President Gul travels February 3 to Saudi Arabia and will no doubt engage in a similar discussion with King Abdullah and other senior Saudi officials. Pointing to impending provincial and municipal elections in Turkey in late March, he emphasized the need to keep statements made by Turkish politicians in proper context and urged that Washington continue to draw Ankara closer into peace process discussions to ensure the U.S. and Turkey ANKARA 00000169 002 OF 003 remain on the same page. Referring to a perception among Turkish officials that the Israelis seem to be "reserving a role for Egypt" in facilitating talks with the Palestinians, Sinirlioglu underscored Turkey does not want to "steal away Egypt's role." Rather, the GOT only seeks to ensure reconciliation among the Palestinians, because without that, there is no hope for a comprehensive peace. Therefore, the only option is to continue efforts to draw HAMAS into the political process, which can help to give Abu Mazen greater confidence that he can back up any deal he may be able to strike with Israel. ¶6. (C) Abbas will be visiting Ankara February 6-7, according to Sinirlioglu. The GOT's aim is to reinforce the need for a strong Palestinian Authority under the control of Abu Mazen, but HAMAS is a reality that will not disappear. "We all must help the Palestinians find a way forward," he said. Turkey supports Egypt's efforts to establish a new technocratic government of national unity with the support of both Fatah and HAMAS, leading to new elections and resumption of PA control over both Gaza and the West Bank. Sinirlioglu admitted the GOT recognizes the negative role Iran plays in supporting the terrorist activities of HAMAS, saying, "No one knows Iran better than us." He pointed to staged demonstrations in Tehran in recent weeks in front of the Turkish embassy, the first anti-Turkish when initial UNSC deliberations failed to bring about a cease-fire, and the second pro-Turkish in reaction to PM Erdogan's performance at Davos. Sinirlioglu noted the Iranians will "try to exploit anything and everything." The GOT remains focused on removing tools from Tehran's hands and is convinced the best way to do that is to continue to drive a wedge between Iran and Syria, without whose support Iran's efforts at destabilization would become far less effective. An Effort That Remains at the Core of Turkey's Iraq Policy -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Ozcelik continued a similar refrain, noting the GOT remains concerned about PM Maliki and the degree to which Iran can influence him. Maliki's administration has been "troubled" in effectively governing and the Turks are afraid he will continue to ratchet up pressure on the Kurds in an effort to centralize power. Ozcelik emphasized that Turkey strongly supports a unified Iraq under a central government, but wants to see that achieved through political consensus. The GOT is not certain Maliki is the person who can achieve that, but if not him, who can? Noting the successful conduct of local elections on January 31 and previewing what might occur in eventual national elections, Ozcelik said the electoral map will inevitably look different and the GOT is closely watching to see whether Iranian influence will continue to grow or begin to wane. ¶8. (C) Ozcelik indicated GOT officials are now looking at a possible visit by President Gul to Iraq in the first half of March. During this initial visit, he will likely visit only Baghdad, reserving stops in Erbil, Kirkuk, and other regional cities for a future visit. He noted Foreign Ministers Babacan and Zebari will also likely meet in late February or in the first week of March for the next meeting of the two countries' bilateral high level strategic cooperation mechanism. ¶9. (C) The GOT remains concerned about Turkish firms being excluded from potential energy deals with the KRG should it not at least initiate discussions with Erbil before Iraqi politicians come to agreement on a hydrocarbons law. Ambassador emphasized the USG view that any deals signed with the KRG will only make passage of hydrocarbons legislation less likely and will inevitably be declared null and void once such a law is passed. Ozcelik believes deals struck with the KRG may very well be grandfathered in once national legislation is passed, but expressed understanding of the USG ANKARA 00000169 003 OF 003 position, given the GOT had adhered to the same policy for the past six years. He said Turkey will not be cutting a deal with the KRG on energy right now, though he did not promise there would not be discussions between Ankara and Erbil. ¶10. (C) Ozcelik told Ambassador he will continue to push ahead with his attempt to coordinate GOT efforts in finding non-military ways to counter the terrorist PKK. He noted he would be speaking later in the day with Deputy Chief of Defense Igsiz on the matter and would be reaching out to Massoud Barzani in coming days to express GOT concerns with his plan to convene a conference of Kurdish political parties and entities as a way to bring pressure to bear on the PKK. Ozcelik said Ankara does not want to see the tables turned on Barzani at the conference that would end up forcing his hand to support PKK policies and/or demands. Such a result would seriously undermine the GOT-KRG rapprochement which Ozcelik has worked assiduously to build over the past year. He also intimated that British Iraq Coordinator Frank Baker is playing an unhelpful role in pushing this conference idea. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey Jeffrey