WORKING ERDOGAN BACK INTO THE FOLD ON IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001583 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2019 TAGS: PREL PARM MNUC TU IR SUBJECT: WORKING ERDOGAN BACK INTO THE FOLD ON IRAN REF: ANKARA 1561 (EXDIS) Classified By: AMB James F. Jeffrey, for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: During an October 21 meeting with MFA Undersecretary Sinirlioglu, the Ambassador challenged Prime Minister Erdogan's recent dismissal of international community allegations that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons as "gossip." The Ambassador emphasized Iran will be the single most important topic when Erdogan and POTUS meet in Washington December 7. In contrast to Erdogan, President Gul November 2 pressed Iran to be transparent with IAEA inspectors. We will urge Gul and senior Turkish bureuacrats to curb Erdogan's damaging defense of Iran's nuclear activities. End Summary ¶2. (C) During an October 21 meeting with MFA Undersecretary Sinirlioglu, the Ambassador challenged PM Erdogan's public statement, made the previous day while he was in Tehran, dismissing allegations of Iran's intent to acquire nuclear weapons as "gossip." Holding a copy of President Obama's Pittsburgh Summit comdemnation of Iraq's nuclear ambitions, the Ambassador asked Sinirlioglu if "this was the 'gossip'" to which Erdogan had referred. The Ambassador emphasized that Erdogan's statement made Turkey vulnerable to international community criticism should Iran balk on IAEA inspection of its Qom reprocessing facility or second-party reprocessing of its low-enriched uranium stockpile. Erdogan was, in effect, allowing the Iranians to infer a weakening of the international community consensus against them. The Ambassador warned Sinirlioglu that Washington was now wondering if it could any longer count on Turkey to help contain Iran's profound challenge to regional peace and stability. ¶3. (C) Implying Erdogan's use of the term "gossip" was unconfirmed, Sinirlioglu claimed that the Turkish government "fully supports the P5-plus-1." He asserted the prime minister's principled opposition to nuclear weapons in the region. He argued Erdogan's rhetoric is a tactical effort to gain him credibility with the Middle Eastern street so he can better place the anti-nuclear weapons message. Though Turkey "doesn't believe in sanctions," Sinirlioglu said, "we will support consensus" in the Security Council. The Ambassador responded that Iran would be the single most important topic of conversation when Erdogan and POTUS meet in Washington on December 7. ¶4. (SBU) In marked contrast to Erdogan, President Gul November 2 said Turkey is against nuclear weapons in its region and the world, "especially in neighboring countries." In remarks to reporters while enroute to Slovakia, Gul reaffirmed Turkey's preference for diplomatic means (as opposed to the use of military force) to compel Tehran's adherence to its international obligations, but insisted that Iran "...must be transparent and open to IAEA inspection in order to overcome suspicions." ¶5. (C) Comment: Erdogan's recent comments on Iran's nuclear program amount to a defense of Tehran's defiance of the international community's will. His desire for a "good" Washington visit is the goad we will continue use to try to turn him back towards the international community consensus on Iran. We will also emphasize to Erdogan's senior bureuacrats and, when the opportunity arises, to President Gul their interest in reining in Erdogan on Iran. JEFFREY "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"