Major Iranian Protest Expected Next Wednesday

UNCLAS ANKARA 001560 SIPDIS E.O. 12958:N/A TAGS: CVIS PREL PGOV PHUM SOCI SCUL TU IR SUBJECT: Major Iranian Protest Expected Next Wednesday ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: This week a variety of immigrant (IV) and non-immigrant visa (NIV) applicants told CONOFF that major national student-led protests are planned for Wednesday, November 4. It is unclear who the leaders of the protests are, but participants plan to use "student's day" as a cover to stage a significant demonstration against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the results of last summer's presidential election. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Organizers are exploiting November 4th because the government sanctions gatherings on that day to commemorate the taking of the U.S. Embassy. Applicants noted the protests are well advertised on the internet such as on sites like Facebook. A young pharmaceutical marketer from Tehran said that despite the high visibility of the planned protest on the web it appears to be unlikely the government can stop the events. She added that there is no apparent guidance from Mir-Hossein Mousavi in relation to the protests. A young diversity visa (DV) couple from Tehran said that the protests are originating from "the people" but Mehdi Karoubi and Mousavi would attend. Another DV winner believes that behind the scenes the protests are likely organized by the various political factions that remain dissatisfied with the election results. Tehran will be the epicenter of the protests, but some said that smaller protests are expected all around Iran. ¶3. (SBU) Most applicants appeared excited about the demonstrations, however, not one applicant said they would themselves participate. One software engineer going for his Masters in New Mexico noted that he is not involved, but many of his college friends are planning to protest. He added that his friends plan to chant "where is my vote?" and denounce Ahmadinejad. A middle-aged couple from Tehran acknowledged that students are planning a large protest, but due to fear of beatings and arrests, plan to avoid the demonstrations. They added that although the protest is student-driven, they have heard Iranians of all ages will participate due to the widespread dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad. Another Tehran University graduate insisted that he is apolitical and will not participate. ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: Based on NIV and IV interviews conducted over the past several months, optimism for change in Iran's political system in the near future appears to be nonexistent. Although not one applicant believes that the current regime will survive, no one is holding their breath. Applicants have noted an absence of leadership on the part of Mousavi and other opposition leaders. Although overall leadership is lacking, some applicants now look to Karoubi rather than Mousavi. Apparent interest of applicants themselves participating in demonstrations has gradually decreased over the months since the initial demonstrations. END COMMENT. JEFFREY