ASD VERSHBOW BRIEFS TURKS ON MISSILE DEFENSE: GOOD

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001528

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2019
TAGS: PARM PREL NATO TU
SUBJECT: ASD VERSHBOW BRIEFS TURKS ON MISSILE DEFENSE: GOOD
RECEPTION, BUT ONLY IN NATO CONTEXT

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Jeffrey for reason 1.4 (b, d)

Summary
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1. (S) ASD Vershbow briefed top Turkish MFA and General
Staff officials on details of the proposed U.S. Phased
Adaptive Approach (PAA) to European ballistic missile defense
and presented Turkey with a request to participate in this
effort to protect NATO territory by agreeing to allow a radar
and perhaps other assets to be based on Turkish territory.
Turkish officials appreciated the U.S. consultative approach
and pledged to study the proposal, to consult within its
inter agency process and to respond as soon as possible.
While Turkish officials made no commitments, the
carefully-crafted approach was effective: MFA Undersecretary
Sinirlioglu said that Turkey agreed that developing a
comprehensive deterrent capability within the NATO context
may be the only way to respond to the threat of missile
proliferation in the region. TGS officials recognized the
value of this approach, but requested more details on how
THAAD fire units would complement other air defense
capabilities Turkey is considering. MFA officials requested
that while the U.S. may inform other Allies that we had made
this approach, it would be best for all concerned if the
subject remained out of the press. End Summary.

Pushing Turkey to Support New Missile Defense Approach
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2. (S) On October 19, Assistant Secretary of Defense for
Policy Vershbow traveled to Turkey for meetings with senior
officials on missile defense. At the Foreign Ministry,
Vershbow and the Ambassador met with MFA Undersecretary
Feridun Sinirlioglu (second only to the Minister in
seniority),Deputy Undersecretary Namik Tan, Deputy Director
General for Arms Control and Disarmament Ahmet Muhtar Gun and
NATO Department Head Sule Oztunc. At the Turkish General
Staff, Vershbow and the Ambassador met first with Deputy
Chief of Staff GEN Aslan Guner, who was accompanied by LTG
Yalcin Ataman (J5),MG Mehmet Cetin and MG Mehmet Erdogan.
After 30 minutes, ASD Vershbow and the Ambassador were
invited to meet with GEN Ilker Basbug, Chief of Turkey's
General Staff. On October 20, Ambassador and DCM followed up
these approaches in separate meetings with PM Erdogan's top
foreign policy advisers Hakan Fidan and Ibrahim Kalin.


3. (S) In all of his meetings, ASD Vershbow made a complete
presentation on the USG proposal for the Phased, Adaptive
Approach based on NSC-cleared talking points. He laid out
the rationale behind the policy shift and explained the
advantages the PAA would provide for Allies. Vershbow
stressed that the PAA supported overall NATO goals by
protecting all of NATO territory, and could be connected to a
NATO command and control system. He said that the U.S. would
seek an Alliance declaration endorsing territorial defense as
a NATO mission at the December Ministerial meeting to make
clear this was a NATO project. Vershbow explained the
reasons for locating a TPY-2 radar in Turkey, close to the
threat area, and outlined the benefits such a radar would
provide for Turkey's own defense. Vershbow said that, when
final, the U.S. proposal might include THAAD missile systems
which would, if appropriate, be placed so as to protect the
TPY-2 radar as well as territory and key military
installations in Eastern Turkey.

MFA: NATO Deterrent To Missile Proliferation Essential
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4. (S) At the Foreign Ministry, U/S Sinirlioglu said that
Turkey had been following the U.S. nuclear posture review and
missile defense review with great interest. Turkey
appreciated the transparent approach taken by the U.S. and
was pleased that the U.S. was continuing to consult with
Allies. He reviewed Turkey's redlines for NATO's missile
defense project, which included the "indivisibility of
security," full coverage for all Allies and an insistence
that the burden, risks and benefits of a missile defense
system be shared equally by all Allies.


5. (S) Sinirlioglu said that proliferation of missile and
nuclear weapons technology in the region was one of the most
important threats to Turkey's security. Turkey saw the
development of a missile defense capability to deter such
proliferation as vital to its security. Turkey was willing
to deepen its cooperation within the context of NATO,
Sinirlioglu stated. He quoted FM Davutoglu's comment in
response to a query about Turkey's potential acquisition of
Patriot missile batteries that "this is not tied to any
particular threat country." He said that Turkey's military

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saw it essential to have a "credible, reliable air and
missile defense system for all of Turkey's territory."


6. (S) While not identifying Iran as the origin of the
threat to Turkey's security, Sinirlioglu said that Iran's
nuclear program was a major concern for the region. Turkey
welcomed the outcome of the latest meeting of the P5 plus 1.
Turkey supported the right of any country to pursue the
peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Sinirlioglu hailed the U.S.
policy of engagement with Iran and said that Turkey was
"ready to facilitate dialogue." He expressed Turkey's
satisfaction with U.S. - Turkey cooperation on export control
and said that Turkey took seriously its responsibilities
under relevant UNSCRs. With this preamble, Sinirlioglu made
plain that Turkey saw two major threats to security for
Turkey and for the broader region:

- Iran with nuclear weapons; and/or
- A military strike against Iran's missile facilities.


7. (S) ASD Vershbow concurred strongly that the U.S. did not
want to see a nuclear Iran and that while no option had been
taken off the table, the U.S. was focusing on finding a
diplomatic solution. He seized the opportunity to underscore
how developing the PAA would support Turkey's policy: this
system by its inherent nature is defensive, rather than
offensive. Sinirlioglu said that Turkey agreed "that
developing and consolidating deterrence capability is the
only way out of this situation." Vershbow repeated the U.S.
desire for this system to have a strong link with NATO and
explained that national air defense systems could both
benefit from and provide support to the PAA. Sinirlioglu
closed the subject by stating that "NATO plays a central role
in our foreign policy. We put it above all else."

General Staff: A Political Decision, But PAA Makes Sense
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8. (S) ASD Vershbow and Ambassador found similar
understanding at the Turkish General Staff. DCHOD Guner
invited ASD Vershbow and the Ambassador to make their
approach directly with CHOD Basbug. Basbug, who had been
considering the issue carefully since National Security
Adviser Jones' call over the weekend, acknowledged that a
missile defense system in the NATO context would help to
address Turkey's regional security concerns. He was quick to
point out that the decision to base a missile defense radar
on Turkish soil would be a political, not military decision.
Basbug asked what the NATO role of the THAAD fire units would
be and whether similar units would be based on the territory
of other Allies. He was curious about the capabilities of
the THAAD fire units, and expressed some concern that the TGS
press to acquire Patriot batteries (or another system with
similar capability) might lose political support within the
GOT if it looked like the THAAD would provide coverage at
NATO, not strictly national, expense. The Ambassador said
that the systems were complementary, not redundant, and that
the U.S. was prepared to send experts to lay out how these
capabilities would support Turkey's goals.


9. (S) In separate meetings with PM Erdogan's top foreign
policy advisers on October 20, Ambassador and DCM provided
more concise versions of the approaches made the previous
day. Hakan Fidan told DCM that the approach to deter the
missile threat rather than to strike targets in Iran seemed
more logical. He asked for more specific information on
Iran's missile capabilities, particularly on range, accuracy,
inventory and nuclear weaponization. He said that a system
within the NATO context where not just Turkey was being asked
to bear the political burden would be most likely to succeed.
Ibrahim Kalin told the Ambassador that in his view, while
the proposal would take some time to study, an approach which
would protect Alliance territory with a deterrent capability
could win the support of PM Erdogan.

Turkey: Let's Keep This Quiet For Now
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10. (S) MFA officials quizzed us as to the support we were
seeking from other Allies. ASD Vershbow told Sinirlioglu
that we had already begun consultations with Poland and the
Czech Republic, given their previous commitments to host
parts of the previous BMD architecture in eastern Europe.
Other assets could be sea-based, but we planned to make
approaches to "other allies" as well who could serve as host
country for the Southern SM-3 site or other elements of the
PAA system. While the U.S. could brief Allies at NATO that
it had approached Turkey, Sinirlioglu urged that it would be
better to keep private the specific nature of our request to
locate the TPY-2 radar in Turkey. Vershbow agreed to make no

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mention in the press of his discussions on missile defense in
Ankara.

Comment
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11. (S) The Turks are clearly open to the idea of exploring
an effective deterrent capability. It is our view that the
investment made by senior USG officials in engaging and
consulting with Turkey as the PAA matured is paying off. All
of the Turks with whom we discussed this issue underscored
that success depends on ensuring that this system is in a
NATO context. Almost as important as what the Turks said
during these consultations was what they did not say: none
of the Turks with whom we spoke downplayed the threat to
regional stability posed by Iran's nuclear program, nor did
they express concern about the lack of protection for Turkish
territory.

Action Request
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12. (S) We know that additional briefings about the Phased
Adaptive Approach are being prepared and we appreciate that
Turkey will be high in the lineup to receive these briefings.
We understand, however, that information regarding the
Iranian missile program may already be available. Request
information on Iran's missile capabilities and inventory to
respond to the PM's Foreign Policy Adviser query. Also
request information to respond to CHOD Gen Basbug's query
regarding how a THAAD fire unit would complement, rather than
make redundant, a national air defense system which would
include Patriot missile batteries.


13. (U) ASD Vershbow cleared this telegram.

JEFFREY

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