TURKEY-SYRIA RELATIONS: AN AKP WORK IN PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001486 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SY TU SUBJECT: TURKEY-SYRIA RELATIONS: AN AKP WORK IN PROGRESS REF: A. ANKARA 1446 ¶B. RIYADH 1303 Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Turkish government firmly supports its expanding bilateral relationship with Syria, which it argues benefits both nations and the region. Increasing ties and cooperation between the two governments led to a recent agreement to remove visa requirements, which the MFA deems a constructive decision that enables relatives and businessmen easier movement between the two neighbors without increasing security concerns. The GOT anticipates further strengthening its bilateral relations with the establishment of a High Level Strategic Cooperation Council with Syria similar to the council it instituted with Iraq. The Turkish MFA downplayed the significance of a new joint military exercise announced by the Syrian Defense Minister. Senior Turkish government leaders aspire to play an influential advisory role with Syrian President Asad and believe they can use this influence to help guide Syrian policy to better fit international standards. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) sees the deepening bilateral relationship between Turkey and Syria as a positive development for both countries. Ibrahim Kalin, foreign policy advisor to PM Erdogan, told us that the Turkish government began building its relationship with Syria with confidence-building measures in 2003 and 2004. He said that Syrian acceptance of Turkish sovereignty over Hatay province and cooperation against the PKK were two important measures for fostering relations. He added that the GOT is building economic relations knowing that they are more beneficial to Syria, the smaller and less economically developed partner. Water issues are another topic that the two countries have been working on for years, according to Kalin. The developing ties between the two countries led to the decision to remove the visa requirement for travel between Turkey and Syria. Bye Bye Visa -------------- ¶3. (C) During Syrian President Assad's mid-September visit to Istanbul, an agreement was reached to remove the visa requirement between Turkey and Syria. Syria put the agreement into effect that day -- a surprise to the Turkish side, which then reciprocated the following day, according to Turkish MFA Syria desk officer Burak Rende. The Turkish and Syrian Foreign Ministers signed the final agreement on the elimination of the visa requirement on October 13, during the first meeting of the Turkey-Syria High Level Strategic Cooperation Council. Turkey sees the visa agreement as a positive development because it will allow "blood relations" and businessmen to move more easily between the two countries. Kalin contended that Turkish government officials have no security concerns over the decision, as "no Syrian would try to harm any Turk." (Note: Kalin seemingly is unaware that Luay al-Saqa, the ringleader of the 2003 Istanbul bombings, was a Syrian citizen of mixed Syrian and Turkish ancestry. He was convicted by a Turkish court of plotting a further attack against a tourist cruise ship leaving the Turkish port of Antalya. End note.) ¶4. (C) We asked if Turkey has any apprehension that easing travel requirements might make it easier for terrorists to travel through Turkey on to Europe. Kalin responded that it is up to the Europeans to protect themselves. Rende said that terrorists coming out of Syria do not operate in Turkey and contended that Syria values its relationship with Turkey too much to allow terrorist groups to do anything that would risk that connection. He said neither side had emphasized the issue of terrorist transit during discussions on the removal of the visa requirement nor had there been any focus on how this agreement could affect terrorist movement. Stronger Links with High Level Council -------------- ¶5. (C) The GOT continues to look for ways to strengthen its ANKARA 00001486 002 OF 003 ties to the Syrian government and draw Syria closer to its point of view. Sedat Laciner, director of the think-tank USAK, said Turkey is trying to use soft power with economic and cultural connections to change Syria. Rende explained that the political declaration on the High Level Strategic Cooperation Council signed by President Asad and PM Erdogan in mid-September created a framework for bilateral relations between Turkey and Syria. The council will focus on cooperation on political and diplomatic levels, and on commercial, water, culture, and security issues. Ankara plans to use the council as a tool to open Syria to Turkish exports as well as to improve border crossing points so that the processing of transport trucks will be accelerated to reduce shipping backups. Turkey also wants to cooperate on railways and facilitate tourism. On water issues, Rende said that Syria appears to be open to cooperation. The High Level Strategic Cooperation Council will be managed at the Deputy Under Secretary level-- which, according to Rende, is necessary for any concrete results. ¶6. (C) Turkish and Syrian ministers met in Aleppo on 13 October for the first meeting of the High Level Strategic Cooperation Council. Turkish FM Davutoglu, Defense Minister Gonul, Interior Minister Atalay, Health Minister Akdag, Transportation Minister Yildrim, Agricultural Minister Eker, Energy minister Yildiz, Environment Minister Eroglu, and state ministers Hayati Yazici and Cevdet Yilmaz travelled to Syria for the meeting with their counterparts. The ministers discussed cooperation in several areas, including education, trade, transportation, irrigation, and border crossing. During the opening ceremony, Davutoglu said "the main slogan of the meeting is common destiny, history, and future, and we will build the future together." He also said he hopes these ties will serve as a model for other neighboring countries; the same sentiment mentioned by the MFA and AKP contacts we spoke with on the Turkey-Syrian relationship. ¶7. (C) When asked about Syrian Defense Minister Ali Habib's announcement during a October 13 press conference that Turkey and Syria had agreed to a "more comprehensive, bigger" joint land exercise, MFA's Rende was quick to downplay the impact. He said the exercise was proposed by Syria, and that the details have not been reviewed by the Turkish interagency process. Therefore, details about the scale, modalities and timing have not been set. Rende stated that any joint exercise between Syria and Turkey would be limited to security issues of common concern, namely: border security, anti-smuggling, and counterterrorism, including anti-PKK efforts. He noted that these aspects of bilateral security cooperation between Turkey and Syria were agreed to in 1998 and are not new. Using Advisory Role to Guide Syrian Leadership ¶8. (C) The GOT contends that by offering guidance to the Syrian government, it will help it change and move toward more positive policies. Kalin and Laciner both mentioned the numerous visits to Damascus by senior Turkish leaders in the past two years and pointed to them as a sign of the importance and depth of the relationship. Laciner said these visits led Turkey to be seen in Damascus as a close friend, and not just a foreign ally. He described a meeting between President Asad and President Gul, where Asad asked for Gul's advice on political issues -- "as a son talking to a father" -- rather than a discussion between counterparts. He said Turkish leaders have used their influence with Asad to encourage him to take steps that they view as important for the region, such as lobbying the Syrian President to visit Saudi Arabia for the opening of the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (REF B). Turkey also attempted to use its influence with both the Syrian and Iraqi governments to reduce tensions following the August 19 bombing in Iraq. Kalin noted that Turkey, under the auspices of FM Davutoglu, had made a "good faith" effort in trying to mediate between the two countries. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The Turkish government appears somewhat defensive about its relationship with Syria, and quick to rely on the ANKARA 00001486 003 OF 003 justification that Ankara can play an influential role in guiding the Syrian leadership. The Turkey-Syria relationship fits neatly into AKP's proactive foreign policy, spearheaded by FM Davutoglu, of engaging with all its neighbors in pursuit of "zero problems." The GOT may also view its relationship with Syria as proof of Turkey's leadership role in the Middle East, which they argue should bolster their EU accession prospects -- something which EU diplomats in Ankara firmly dispute. The GOT's lack of concern for security ramfications resulting from the lifting of visa requirements for Syria appears naive, and suggests it has given too little thought to the potential international consequences of such a move. JEFFREY "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"