TURKEY PUSHES FOR STRATEGIC COOPERATION WITH IRAQ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001446 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE AND NEA/I E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER TU IZ SY SUBJECT: TURKEY PUSHES FOR STRATEGIC COOPERATION WITH IRAQ Classified By: DCM Doug Silliman, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: PM Erdogan's October 15 visit to Baghdad is the culmination of a recently revitalized GoT effort to establish a strategic partnership with Iraq. He hopes to lay the foundations for bilateral cooperation in areas ranging from counter-terrorism cooperation and hydrocarbons transshipment through transportation and communications infrastructure project development. The Turkish effort may be hindered by the GoI's preoccupation with securing increased Euphrates water flows from its upstream neighbor. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) MFA Office of the Special Envoy to Iraq staffer Can Oguz briefed us over the course of several September conversations on the GoT's effort to establish a strategic partnership with Iraq. The culmination of that effort will be PM Erdogan's October 15 visit to Baghdad. Erdogan, who will have nine of his ministers in tow, hopes to co-host a joint cabinet meeting, which will be the venue for the signing of up to 44 MoUs, laying foundations for cooperation in the areas of hydrocarbons trans-shipment, water and environmental management, counter-terrorism, public health, commerce, agriculture, transportation and communications infrastructure projects, civil aviation and commercial shipping. Coinciding with Erdogan's visit, the Turkish Ministry of Transportation hopes to run, for the first time in decades, a train from Turkey through Syria and Mosul into Baghdad. Oguz asserted the disused track is capable of carrying the train safely. He noted in late September, however, the Syrians have yet to agree to the train's crossing their territory. ¶3. (SBU) The MoUs were partially prepared, Oguz told us, at the first ministerial-level meeting September 17 and 18 in Istanbul of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council between Turkey and Iraq. The council had been dormant since its establishment on July 10, 2008 in a joint political declaration signed by Erdogan and Iraqi PM Malaki. During his August visit to Baghdad, FM Davutoglu proposed to FM Zebari that an activated council become the vehicle for establishing a strategic partnership between the two neighbors. ¶4. (C) Oguz identified several of the GoT's priorities for the Baghdad signing ceremony. Turkey hopes to secure, as specified in Article 4 of the counter-terrorism MoU, Iraqi acquiescence to its cross-border military operations against the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Oguz conceded the unlikelihood of the Iraqis' accepting this article. The Turks will also seek the opening of a second border gate between the two countries to relieve multi-mile vehicle back-ups at Habur. This long-time Turkish ambition has previously run afoul of control and customs revenue disagreements between the KRG and Baghdad. The GoT wants to secure GoI agreement to the construction of a direct natural gas pipeline to Turkey and a new rail line that avoids crossing Syrian territory. ¶5. (C) Oguz described Erdogan's visit as a determined GoT effort to extend Turkey's influence and commercial presence beyond Iraq's three northern governates throughout the country. That effort, he said, may yet be hindered by Iraq's bureaucratic confusion and its preoccupation with Euphrates River flows. Every Iraqi minister at the Istanbul meeting, Oguz lamented, requested Turkey release more water from its upstream dams. ¶6. (C) Comment: FM Davutoglu appears enamored of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council model. We expect him to seek to establish a similar multi-ministerial coordination arrangement with Syria when he travels to Aleppo October 13 and, as an illustration of the Syrian-Turkish border's new openness, brings his Syrian counterpart back to Gaziantep the same day for the second half of their meeting. JEFFREY ANKARA 00001446 002 OF 002 "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"