DAS KAIDANOW'S INITIAL CONSULTATIONS IN TURKEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 001326 SIPDIS EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS AR GR TU SUBJECT: DAS KAIDANOW'S INITIAL CONSULTATIONS IN TURKEY Classified By: CDA Doug Silliman, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: GoT officials told EUR DAS Kaidanow during her initial visit to Ankara that: -- Turkey is committed to the reconciliation process with Armenia, but Ankara also needs to see progress on Nagorno-Karabakh; -- Ankara fully supports Talat and is giving him maximum flexibility, but is concerned that the Greek Cypriots are not motivated to deal. Turkey believes UN Special Envoy Downer needs to be more engaged in the process and wants UN SYG Moon to host a meeting for Talat and Christoufias at UNGA to give visibility to this issue; -- There is ongoing Greece-Turkey bilateral dialogue regarding the Aegean, including on the issue of military flights. Greek allegations about Turkish air activities are often misleading, including recent allegations of Turkish harassment of a Greek civilian airliner; -- The Kurdish Opening is at the forefront of Turkey,s domestic agenda. The government has a strong will to move forward and appreciates USG's continuing support on intel sharing against the PKK and working with Europe to curb the PKK's fundraising and political activities; -- Turkey is concerned about Iranian efforts to form a Shiite coalition in Iraq and wants to work with the U.S. to support a more liberal, democratic, pro-Western regime in Baghdad. Rising tensions between Syria and Iraq are a concern; -- FM Davutoglu will visit Iran the week of September 7 and will urge the Iranians to respond constructively to the P5 Plus 1 offer; -- Turkey is committed to Nabucco as an important element of energy security and does not view Southstream as a competitor. End Summary. ¶2. (C) During her initial visit to Ankara September 3-4, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Ambassador Tina Kaidanow met with MFA Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu and other senior MFA officials, Deputy Chief of the Turkish General Staff (TGS) GEN Aslan Guner, Energy Undersecretary Metin Kilci and Foreign Trade Undersecretary Ahmet Yakici. Ambassador hosted a dinner for DAS Kaidanow with pundits and thinktankers on September 3 and a separate dinner with senior GoT advisors and members of opposition parties on September 4. DAS Kaidanow and interlocutors agreed on the positive and close partnership between the U.S. and Turkey on a full range of key issues, including particularly Afghanistan/Pakistan and Iraq. Discussions in the various meetings focused on Turkey,s approach on Armenia, Cyprus, Greece, the "Democratic Opening" to address the Kurdish issue and energy. ARMENIA-TURKEY: COMMITTED, NEED PROGRESS ON N-K -------------- -- ¶3. (C) MFA Undersecretary Sinirlioglu told DAS Kaidanow that Ankara is committed to normalizing relations with Armenia, and that the protocols to establish and develop diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia has created very positive momentum on which all parties should build. While acknowledging that Nagarno-Karabagh is on a separate track, Sinirlioglu stressed that Turkey also needs to see progress on Nagorno-Karabakh. This message was echoed by TGS Deputy CHOD Gen Guner during his meeting with DAS Kaidanow. Sinirlioglu also predicted that this sensitive step will be fiercely debated in parliament. ¶4. (C) MFA Deputy U/S Cevikoz, the MFA point person on normalization with Armenia told DAS Kaidanow in a separate meeting that Turkey was pleased with how the press was being managed and thanked the U.S. for helping to manage the Azeris. "Turkey hopes this is the beginning of an end, rather than the end of the beginning," Cevikoz quipped, but said a lot will depend on how the next steps play out, ANKARA 00001326 002 OF 004 including the MINSK Group meeting in Chisinau (on the margins of the CIS summit) between Armenian President Sargsian and Azerbaijani President Aliyev, and Sargsian,s attendance at the World Cup qualifier match in Turkey between Turkey and Armenia on October 14. ¶5. (C) DAS Kaidanow applauded Turkey's courage in moving forward with normalization with Armenia. The U.S. understands that although the two issues are on separate tracks, it is important for Turkey to see progress on N-K in order to move forward with normalization. She underscored that the U.S. remains committed to finding a resolution on N-K and noted the appointment of Amb. Bradtke as the new U.S. co-chair for the MINSK Group as a reflection of the U.S. commitment. Sinirlioglu welcomed this announcement and said Turkey will look forward to working closely with Amb. Bradtke. ¶6. (C) Senior representatives from the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the National Action Party (MHP) told DAS Kaidanow that opposition parties will reject the protocols without a commitment from Armenia to withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani territories. During the dinner hosted by Ambassador Jeffrey on September 4, CHP Vice Chair and former MFA Undersecretary Onur Oymen argued that Turkey normalizing relations with Armenia before an Armenian withdrawal would effectively condone the illegal occupation by Armenia. This, Onur concluded, would set a terrible precedent for other instances of illegal occupation in the South Caucasus, including the Russian occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Hakan Fidan, senior advisor to PM Erdogan, retorted by noting that the protocol should be seen as a confidence building measure in advance of ratification by both parliaments and that the government understands the need for progress on Nagarno-Karabagh in order to receive opposition support for the protocols. DAS Kaidanow also noted that if Azerbaijan was willing to accept finalizing an agreement on the Madrid Basic Principles as a mark of success in the Nagorno-Karabakh process, Turkey should not be in the position of defining that success more stringently than Baku itself. Cyprus -------------- ¶7. (C) MFA U/S Sinirlioglu told DAS Kaidanow that Turkey completely supports Talat's constructive, pro-solution approach and that Turkey has provided him full flexibility in the negotiations. Sinirlioglu expressed concern that the Greek Cypriots seem unmotivated to negotiate and appear to be using Turkey,s EU accession process as leverage to advance their goals in the negotiations. He warned that the window for a settlement is closing, pointing to the April 2010 presidential elections in the north as a likely turning point given the growing sentiments in the north against a settlement. He asked for U.S. support to encourage Special Envoy Downer to be more engaged in the process and to back Turkey's request for UN SYG Ban Ki Moon to meet jointly with Talat and Christoufias at the UN to highlight his personal interest in and draw international attention on the negotiations. DAS Kaidanow agreed that the UN should be fully engaged and that the window for a solution is limited. She said a UN SYG meeting with the two leaders could be a positive step and the US would consider supporting this. Greece-Turkey -------------- 8 (C) MFA Deputy U/S Berk told DAS Kaidanow that relations with Greece are generally positive and outlined the ongoing semi-annual meetings of the bilateral steering committee in which he represents the Turkish side. Berk was upbeat in describing the discussions with Greece that were broadening and moving beyond the monotonous exchanges of their respective positions on the continental shelf. Berk said the Greeks had proposed five confidence building measures (CBMs) and that he had sent a letter in mid-August to the Greek PolDir to accept four of these CBMs and to propose an additional five new ones. Turkey was even willing to consider the selective extension of territorial waters beyond the six mile limit in ANKARA 00001326 003 OF 004 certain areas (while not in others). DAS Kaidanow raised the issue of Turkish overflights of inhabited Greek islands, expressing concern that the potential for escalation or accidents was high. Berk warned DAS Kaidanow not to take Greek allegations of Turkish overflights in the Aegean at face value and rejected outright Greece's claim that Turkish fighter aircraft had passed close by a Greek airliner on August 31. Berk said that in addition to proposed CBMs, he had sent to his Greek counterpart a proposal for an "Aegean Code of Conduct" which he said could greatly reduce the chance of a mishap with potential for escalation. Turkey was ready to implement this proposal as well as the CBMs without prejudicing the legal positions on either side. While noting that the Greek government may be distracted with upcoming elections, Berk pointed to polling that showed PASOK in the lead. He commented that that Turkey is "not a stranger" to PASOK and considers Papandreou a good partner. ¶9. (C) TGS Deputy CHOD General Guner told DAS Kaidanow that there are improvements in Turkey-Greece relations and Turkey is looking to build on the personal relationships between the two militaries, especially between the service commanders. Guner said the new Greek CHOD had served in Ankara when Guner was the J2 at TGS. Responding to concerns expressed by DAS Kaidanow about Turkish military overflights over populated Greek islands, Guner avoided getting into specifics, but said that there are CBMs ongoing. He concluded by stating that, "Man-to-man, military-to-military, we have no problems." Kurdish Opening -------------- ¶10. (C) Sinirlioglu said there is a consensus of public opening supporting the GoT's "Democratic Initiative," and that there is strong political will to press forward. He expressed appreciation for the continuing support Turkey receives from the U.S. in the fight against the PKK and asked for the U.S. to continue pressing the EU to prevent political and fundraising activities in Europe. DAS Kaidanow agreed that the EU can be doing more and that the U.S. will continue to explore with the EU what more can be done to deny political and financial support for the PKK. TGS Deputy CHOD Guner flagged for DAS Kaidanow TGS Chief Basbug's July 25 announcement as key: it highlighted TGS's red lines but provided general support for any efforts that would not cross those lines. Guner concluded: "If there is something that we can do to bring the PKK down from the mountains, we will do it. But as long as they stay in the mountains, we will fight them." Iraq -------------- ¶11. (C) Turkey,s Special Envoy and soon-to-be ambassador to Iraq Murat Ozcelik joined Sinirlioglu,s meeting with DAS Kaidanow and stated that he is working closely with Ambassador Hill. Ozcelik said he will focus on overcoming the challenge of elections and on passage of the revenue sharing and hydrocarbon laws once he arrives Baghdad. He said a smooth drawdown of U.S. forces is important, and urged the U.S. to not become overly focused on an "exit strategy," but to work with Turkey and others toward a more pro-Western Iraq: "We don,t want another Iran in the region." He stressed that Turkey supports a fair election process and is following developments closely, particularly Iran,s efforts to build a Shiite coalition in Iraq. He was encouraged by Maliki's decision not to join a Shia coalition, but remains concerned about Maliki's intentions. He asked that the U.S and Turkey should work together for a constellation of political actors who are more liberal and democratic. He noted Turkey's concerns about growing tensions between Iraq and Syria. FM Davutoglu had just traveled to both countries and may do so again, following the September 9 meeting in Cairo. Ozcelik noted that Turkey will remain engaged with all groups in Iraq. Iran/Syria -------------- ¶12. (C) Sinirlioglu noted that FM Davutoglu will be traveling ANKARA 00001326 004 OF 004 to Iran in the near future and will convey a "tough message" urging Iran to respond to the P5 plus 1 offer. He also said that Turkey,s continuing engagement with Syria is difficult, but worth the effort as changing Syria will be important for the region. Energy -------------- ¶13. (C) Turkey supports the free flow of energy to Europe, Sinirlioglu stated, and believes that energy security is one of Turkey's key contributions to Europe. He reiterated Turkey's support for Nabucco and said Southstream is not in competition with Nabucco. He agreed with DAS Kaidanow's assessment that supplies for the pipeline remains the lingering question mark over the project and said this is yet another reason to have a breakthrough in Armenian-Azerbaijan and Turkish-Armenian relations. Energy Undersecretary Metin Kilci in a separate meeting told DAS Kaidanow that Turkey is pushing hard in support of Nabucco, has high expectations for it, and is working on secondary agreements such as the Project Support Agreement (PSA) and setting up the national Nabucco companies. Kilci said he expects the project will begin within two years, compared to Southstream, which remains a long-term and costly project. ¶14. (U) DAS Kaidanow has cleared this cable. SILLIMAN "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"