SCENESETTER FOR CONGRESSMAN WEXLER'S VISIT

UNCLAS ANKARA 001247 SENSITIVE SIPDIS H PASS TO CONGRESSMAN WEXLER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV TU SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CONGRESSMAN WEXLER'S VISIT ¶1. (SBU) Summary: You will find Turks increasingly focused on Erdogan's still inchoate "Democratic Initiative," which seeks to address the social and economic factors contributing to many Turkish Kurds' sense of alienation from their government and modern Turkey. The initiative's opponents fear it will lead to the weakening of the Turkish state and potentially Turkey's disintegration. We are quietly registering our support for the initiative. You will want to remind your interlocutors that Turkey confronts several challenges beyond the terrorist PKK. The EU reform agenda is languishing and Cyprus is looming larger as an obstacle to Turkey's European vocation. Progress on the normalization of relations with Armenia has stalled. Caution your interlocutors not to weaken Turkey's commitment to Nabucco, which remains important to reducing Europe's energy dependence on an undependable Russia. End Summary Welcome Back to Turkey -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Your Turkish interlocutors know you, trust your commitment to a strong U.S.-Turkey relationship and will listen carefully to your analysis. You will find President Gul, the government and AK Party leaders focused on Prime Minister Erdogan's "Democratic Initiative," his still very much amorphous bid to overcome the alienation, cultural backwardness and economic deprivation that have, for decades, impelled some Turkish Kurds to support and sometimes join the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). ¶3. (SBU) You will want to encourage the initiative, in principle, as the kind of comprehensive approach that offers the best chance of success against the very adaptable PKK, which continues to survive and fight despite the Turkish military's decades-long effort to eradicate it. You should also reiterate our commitment to continued assistance against the PKK. Reassure your interlocutors that our encouragement will remain low-profile. ¶4. (SBU) Both CHP and MHP continue to criticize the initiative harshly. The former's opposition may be more of an effort to find political advantage; the stridently nationalist MHP, however, fears a steep slippery slope that undermines the state's primary function as the guarantor of national unity and could lead to the disintegration of Turkey. Remind CHP Chairman Baykal that the United States has never wavered in its commitment to Turkey's integrity and national unity. Note, however, our belief that the final disposition of the PKK would remove a distraction that has long inhibited Turkey's realization of its potential as the most powerful agent of the Western agenda in its region. ¶5. (SBU) The initiative has raised hopes and expectations, including our own. We eagerly await the government's unveiling of its details, promised for October. We, the markets and investors will pay particular attention to the government's plans to fund the initiative. If, as is hinted, the initiative seeks to invest more budgetary resources in southeastern development projects, it should do so without undermining the markets' hopes that this Turkish government has not entirely abandoned its commitment to fiscal probity. Save Some of that Bandwidth for Other Issues -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Though the government's focus on the Democratic Initiative, while it is being developed and marketed to the Turkish public is understandable, Turkey still confronts a range of serious challenges beyond the PKK. Reviewing that agenda with FM Davutoglu will be a useful reminder to him that Turkey's friends view the remaining months of this year as critical to its European vocation and important to its regional aspirations. ¶7. (SBU) Erdogan's early dash on Turkey's EU reform agenda slowed to a crawl over the past few years. We were encouraged by his appointment of Egemen Bagis as Minister for EU Accession in January. Bagis is working hard to catalyze progress on constitutional and other legislative reforms. A settlement on Cyprus this year remains key to keeping Turkey's accession talks on track. Reopening Halki seminary could help improve the atmosphere with the EU and is the right thing to do. ¶8. (SBU) The number one threat to U.S.-Turkish bilateral relations is if the USG or Congress were to endorse a resolution labeling the World War I Armenian tragedy a genocide. Turkey's best defense against a resolution would be to normalize relations with Armenia as soon as possible. ¶9. (SBU) You may want to remind your interlocutors of our long-standing commitment to Turkey as an energy corridor to Europe. The Nabucco project is important to reducing Europe's dependence on an ultimately undependable Russia. We hope Turkey will honor its commitment to Nabucco's realization. ¶10. (SBU) Compliment Davutoglu on his successful co-hosting of the Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP) Senior Officials meeting August 24 and ministerial August 25, both in Istanbul. The FoDP aims to galvanize international support for Pakistan as it faces critical economic and security challenges. You may want to seek his assessment of the meetings' successes. You should know that we are beginning to work even more closely with Turkey on Afghanistan. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey Silliman