AFGHANISTAN ELECTIONS: TURKEY NEEDS LITTLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001224

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF TU
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN ELECTIONS: TURKEY NEEDS LITTLE
MANAGING

REF: SECSTATE 85136

Classified By: CDA Doug Silliman for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In both their public statements and
private conversations with us, GoT officials have repeatedly
confirmed their commitment to a free and fair Afghan
presidential election. The GoT's dispatch of a 12-person
MFA-led team of election monitors to Afghanistan
substantiates that commitment. The MFA identifies the
possibility of post-election violence by disappointed
supporters of former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah as
one of its primary concerns. Several years ago, the GoT had
hoped Uzbek warlord Dostum would be receptive to increased
Turkish influence in Afghanistan, but the MFA now evaluates
him as erratic and unreliable. August 16, the GoT
unenthusiastically acceded to President Karzai's request for
facilitation of Dostum's return to Afghanistan. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Turkey's primary strategic interest with regard to
the Afghan presidential election is to establish or maintain
access to the winner, which the MFA expects to be President
Karzai, and to preserve a post-election security environment
that accommodates the development and assistance activities
of Turkish officials and contractors operating in
Afghanistan. MFA Afghanistan Affairs Department Head Babur
Girgin stressed the latter point during our August 17
discussion of REFTEL talking points. Noting that during his
June visit to Kabul, FM Ahmet Davutoglu had urged Afghan
presidential candidates to avoid exacerbating ethnic
divisions, Girgin registered concern that some of Dr.
Abdullah's United Front supporters would react violently to
an adverse election result. Girgin worried that such
violence would impede Turkey's extensive assistance and
development projects in Afghanistan and imperil Turkish
citizens assigned there.


3. (C) Turkish officials, notably Davutoglu, have publicly
and privately endorsed free and fair elections. Our GoT
interlocutors have registered no preference on an outcome.
Consistent with its commitment to the integrity of the
elections, the MFA will dispatch 12 election monitors to
Kabul, Mazar-e-Sharif and Wardak. Several years ago, the GoT
had attempted to cultivate the Uzbek warlord General Abdul
Rashid Dostum in the hope that he would be receptive to
increased Turkish influence in Afghanistan. The MFA now
views him as erratic and unreliable. The GoT acceded
unenthusiastically August 16 to President Karzai's request
for facilitation of Dostum's return to Afghanistan (although
the GoT did delay the departure of the charter flight
carrying Dostum for nearly 15 hours at USG request.) Dostum
had been residing in Turkey as an official guest for more
than a year. MFA Undersecretary-Designate Feridun
Sinirlioglu told Charge August 16 that Turkey had tried to
convince Dostum not to depart Turkey but had no legal means
to hold him here. He said the GoT is encouraging Dostum to
return to Turkey as soon as possible after the elections.


4. (C) Girgin did not anticipate pre-election MFA public
statements urging Afghans to accept the election results.
Though Turkey would be unlikely to make such statements
unilaterally, the MFA might be receptive to joining key
international community nations in a concerted effort to
forestall post-election violence.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

Silliman