TURKEY: SWEDES VIEW INCREASING AEGEAN TENSIONS AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001145 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EUN TU SW SUBJECT: TURKEY: SWEDES VIEW INCREASING AEGEAN TENSIONS AS CONTRARY TO EU ASPIRATIONS REF: A. STOCKHOLM 467 ¶B. STATE 77681 Classified By: Ambassador James Jeffrey for reasons 1.4 (b,c) ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador discussed reftels joint efforts with Swedish Ambassador Christer Asp August 5 and noted, in particular, that rising Turkish-Greek tensions over recent Aegean events could inadvertently impact Turkey's EU accession bid. Asp commented that Greece and Cyprus already have attempted to raise the issue in the July GAERC meeting. As EU President, Stockholm has pushed Ankara to take steps that would ease stresses with Athens and Nicosia, namely opening the Halki Seminary and backing down on objections to Cypriot oil explorations. Despite a general feeling that heavy lifting on Cyprus would have to wait until MFA U/S Apakan (a hardliner on Cyprus/Greek issues) left for his new assignment in September, Asp reported that he has already seen signs of flexibility, including some from Apakan himself. The most promising is a possible GOT declaration of non-aggression and peaceful resolution regarding the continental shelf. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In an August 5 meeting, the Ambassador reiterated to Swedish Ambassador Christer Asp that the USG intentions to work in tandem with Stockholm on issues related to Turkey's EU accession bid as earlier discussed by EUR DAS Matt Bryza and Swedish MFA Director Lars Wahlund in a July 19 DVC (ref A). The Ambassador noted a disappointing turn from warming Turkish-Greek relations punctuated by recent Turkish military flights over the Greek-populated Agathonisi and Farmakonisi islands. Such events could adversely impact the upcoming Ankara Protocol review in November should Athens decided to drag Brussels into a bilateral dispute over the Aegean. ¶3. (C) Asp commented that Brussels has traditionally chosen to "stay out" of Turkish-Greek disputes. However, given the importance of this year's Ankara Protocol review, he has articulated similar concerns to the GOT. Both Greece and Cyprus raised territorial complains against Turkey at the July EU General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) meeting, reported Asp. As EU President, Sweden managed to kill the discussion by convincing other members not to intervene. Nevertheless, Cyprus will likely revive the issue again before November. Asp agreed to echo the Ambassadors concerns over Agathonisi and Farmakonisi with the GOT. ¶4. (C) Under its EU Presidency, Stockholm has pushed Ankara to open Halki Seminary as it would gain Turkey good will with the Greek Orthodox community and benefit Istanbul as a 2010 European Capitol of Culture. Asp said that Swedish MFA U/S Frank Belfrage pushed U/S Apakan hard on this issue during an August 3 Brussels meeting. Asp had also encouraged lead GOT EU negotiator Egemen Bagis to do the same and to show more flexibility toward Cyprus. Bagis reportedly responded that he was working on Halki, but that it would ultimately require a reciprocal act in Northern Thrace. (NOTE: In contrast to a month ago, we are hearing this linkage every time Halki comes up. This is significant step backward. END NOTE) Cyprus, however, would have to wait until September, when Apakan assumes his new position as Turkish UN Permanent Representative in New York. ¶5. (C) Asp reported, however, that Apakan has show signs of softening his traditionally incalcitrant position on Cyprus. During his meeting with Belfrage, Apakan reportedly said that he would consider allowing Cypriots to attend one of the three OECD education and cultural programs that Turkey had previously blocked. Belfrage also encouraged Apakan to show more flexibility on energy issues, namely Cypriot oil exploration, as current Turkish objections will just prolong Nicosia's efforts to block the opening of additional EU chapters (namely energy) and to contemplate issuing a declaration of non-aggression and peaceful resolution on the matter. Asp reported he had been told since that the GOT was working on such a resolution and would consult with the Swedes regarding content and timing. (NOTE: Asp opined that the EU has shot itself in the foot over the energy chapter by allowing Nicosia to block its opening. Momentum is growing amongst members to increase pressure on Cyprus to step down; Nabucco has helped with this. END NOTE) Nevertheless, he expressed concern to the Ambassador that the Turks may ask the GOC for a guarantee of equal rights on the continental ANKARA 00001145 002 OF 002 shelf in return. On the Ankara Protocol, Apakan reportedly said that Turkey may consider a variation of the Finnish Proposal of opening one airport and one port in exchange for Famagusta. ¶6. (C) Comment: Asp is willing to give the Turks the benefit of the doubt on issues such as the Aegean. As we have noted previously, Athens' reluctance to explain why overflights of Agathonisi and Farmakonisi are different (i.e. real violations of sovereignty) has even the Swedes confused. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey JEFFREY