JORDAN--NGOS SAY IRAQI NUMBERS DECREASING AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000979

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR PRM/ANE AND FOR NEA/ELA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2019
TAGS: PHUM PREF JO
SUBJECT: JORDAN--NGOS SAY IRAQI NUMBERS DECREASING AS

REFUGEE NEEDS INCREASE

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Representatives from seven non-governmental
organizations that provide USG-funded services to Iraqis in
Jordan told the Ambassador on April 5 that there were now
probably about 100,000 Iraqi refugees in Jordan, not the
400,000 to 500,000 previously estimated by the GOJ. Iraqis in
Jordan were becoming increasingly vulnerable as they exhaust
their personal funds and tried to cope with rising expenses.
NGOs said that the USG should continue to press Jordan to
grant Iraqis temporary protective status, the right to work,
and full access to vocational training. NGOs also asserted
that the time has come for a discussion among international,
Jordanian, Iraqi and U.S. officials about how to coordinate
efforts that would pave the way for returns to Iraq. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) Ambassador hosted the heads of the seven NGOs
selected in 2008 from the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and
Migration to deliver USD 11 million in assistance to Iraqis
in Jordan. The NGOs included: Save The Children,
International Medical Corps, CARE International, Relief
International, Center for Victims of Torture, and Mercy Corps.

Discussion of the Numbers
--------------


3. (C) The consensus among the NGOs was that while Jordan
may have hosted many more Iraqis in the past, now there were
likely about 100,000 Iraqis who would identify themselves as
refugees or seek international assistance. Currently they
agreed that they served a population of about 70,000 persons,
including the 54,000 registered with the Jordan office of the
UN High Commission for Refugees. The NGOs based their
estimates of Jordan's overall Iraqi population on the results
of thorough outreach programs seeking new beneficiaries for
their assistance programs.


4. (SBU) Some NGO representatives suspected that Jordan had
maintained its high estimate of the refugee population to
obtain greater levels of foreign assistance. NGOs said that
Jordan should allow an accurate census and assessment of
needs for vulnerable Iraqis seeking assistance in Jordan.
The census would likely reveal that fewer than the official
400,000-500,000 refugees currently reside in Jordan. The
lower number, if made public, could relieve public anxiety
about the presence of the Iraqis. The GOJ might then find it
politically easier to grant the smaller number of Iraqis
temporary protective status, access to legal work and
vocational training.

Refugee Vulnerability on the Rise
--------------


5. (SBU) Even as NGOs affirmed that refugee numbers were
lower than previously estimated, they insisted that refugee
vulnerability was increasing in Jordan as middle-class
refugees descended into poverty and the overall economic
condition in Jordan worsens parallel to global trends.
Iraqis now coming forward to seek assistance are doing so
once their own resources are depleted after years of living
in Jordan. Some have been here since the early nineties after
the first Gulf War. Medical care and education were provided
for refugees free of charge. However, lodging was the
largest expense for Iraqis, and refugees were working
illegally to meet these costs. By some estimates, 70 percent
of Iraqi families had at least one member active in the
economy. Without legal status, however, refugees feared
arrest and deportation should their illegal employment be
discovered.


6. (SBU) A few Iraqis had legitimate jobs; NGOs employ
dozens of Iraqi volunteers to work in partnership with the
GOJ. Universities and hospitals in Jordan employed Iraqi
professionals, often at a fraction of the salary they would
pay similarly qualified Jordanians. Only a few, well
educated Iraqis could take advantage of legal opportunities.
As needs grew, unskilled Iraqis and children would
increasingly turn to illegal employment, such as prostitution
and other dangerous coping mechanisms to make ends meet.
NGOs asked that USG use humanitarian funds to mitigate the
negative effects of growing poverty, especially on one-parent
families, and unaccompanied youth.

Uncertainty Undermines Repatriation
--------------


7. (SBU) NGO leaders agreed that repatriation was the most

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likely solution for the great majority of their Iraqi
beneficiaries, however the option was not popular for many of
the refugees. NGOs working with UNHCR said that only
approximately 600 Iraqis availed themselves of UNHCR's
assistance to repatriate in the past year. Iraqis in Jordan
without visas or immigration status were hesitant to attempt
repatriation because once they leave the country, Jordanian
border authorities ban them from reentering the country.
Given the uncertainties of Iraq, Iraqis are unwilling to make
an exploratory trip home to verify conditions and to make the
initial contacts with friends and family (septel). This
contrasted with Syria where Iraqis were able to leave and
return much more easily.


8. (SBU) Lack of security was still the chief reason given
by refugees for remaining in Jordan. However security, as
defined by the refugees, had both political and economic
aspects. Refugees explained that terror attacks and
kidnapping undermined economic development inside Iraq and
increased joblessness, and poverty. After security, economic
stability and job creation were the next most important
priorities for Iraqi refugees. NGOs advised that vocational
training be linked to skills Iraqis could use once they
return to Iraq. However our interlocutors said that Iraqis
would be in Jordan for years, and they would need to work to
support their families.

Iraqi Government Involvement Needed
--------------


9. (SBU) Refugees complained that Iraq was not doing enough
to bring them home. NGOs said that Government of Iraq
delegations had carried out several uncoordinated,
ineffectual missions to pitch return to specific groups, for
example doctors, teachers and other professionals. However,
in practice many of the enticements the GOI offered had not
materialized once people returned and word had gotten back to
Jordan. Based on conversations with refugees, NGOs found
that the GOI could increase the likelihood of repatriation by
reaching out to refugees and working with Jordan to develop
programs to support Iraqis here. The NGOs would welcome
talks between Iraq and Jordan in the hopes that a dialogue
might result in a strategy that could protect the refugees in
Jordan while encouraging returns.

Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman
Beecroft