SCENESETTER FOR SE MITCHELL'S FEBRUARY 28 VISIT TO

S E C R E T AMMAN 000517

SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/IPA, AND FOR SENATOR MITCHELL
ALSO PASS TO NSC FOR SHAPIRO AND PASCUAL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL IS JO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SE MITCHELL'S FEBRUARY 28 VISIT TO
JORDAN

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d)


1. (S) Summary: Foremost on the King's mind are Israeli
efforts to form a new government and how the results would
affect progress toward peace. The King will also want to
know of any developments in the U.S. strategic approach
toward Iran and Syria, which could trigger a shift in
Jordan's approach toward these actors and Islamist groups,
including Hamas. The King may raise ongoing Saudi-Syria
discussions on reconciliation and his concern that a mending
of relations should extend to the entire moderate Arab bloc,
not just Saudi Arabia. Your visit comes in the wake of the
February 23 reshuffle of Prime Minister Nader Al-Dahabi's
cabinet, including the foreign minister. End Summary.

Possibilities for Peace
--------------


2. (C) King Abdullah will focus his attention on
developments in the U.S. approach to peace, given election
results in Israel that he and others here expect will
translate into a Binyamin Netanyahu-led government. From the
King on down, our Jordanian contacts worry that such a
government will reject the generally accepted parameters of
peace talks, including the most basic goal of Palestinian
statehood. Some Jordanians have assessed that the
electorate's rightward shift showed Israel's "true face" and
have cited Netanyahu's stated preference to focus on economic
peace" rather than immediately proceeding to final status
solutions. The King believes Israel has limited time to get
a deal on good terms before demographic and attitudinal
shifts in the Palestinian body politic undermine Israel's
negotiating position.

Consultation on Iran and Syria
--------------


3. (C) The King will also want to know about any
developments in the U.S. strategic approach toward Iran and
Syria. The recent Congressional delegations that met with
Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad have made Jordan especially
uneasy. Believing the U.S. is predisposed toward engagement,
Jordanian officials have avoided forthrightly rejecting such
overtures, but they remain deeply concerned that Iran and
Syria will be the only ones to benefit. Re-engagement would
also likely trigger a review of Jordan's relationship with
Iran and Syria, in addition to Islamic groups including
Hamas, with which Jordan held limited security talks in the
second half of 2008. From Jordan's perspective, the U.S.
would benefit in pressing Israel to proceed to final status
negotiations, garnering Arab support to deal with shared
security concerns about Iran.

Position of Arab Moderates
--------------

4. (S) Jordan continues to see real movement toward a
two-state solution as the key to bolstering and expanding the
moderate Arab bloc, but our interlocutors have cited a few
positives signs for the moderate trend since your last visit.
The King and Chief of the Royal Court Nasser Al-Lozi visited
Saudi Arabia February 19 and 20 and learned about an uptick
in Saudi-Syrian contacts aimed at reconciliation. According
to Lozi, the Saudis see a few encouraging signs from Qatar
and even more from Syria, including evincing a willingness to
accept Arab League language supportive of the Arab Peace
Initiative and of Egyptian efforts to mediate with Hamas.
Jordan's position is that any reconciliation with Syria
should extend to the entire moderate Arab bloc, not just
Saudi Arabia. Jordan is worried that a bilateral
Saudi-Syrian reconciliation would peel Saudi Arabia off from
the moderate bloc while Syria continues attacks on others in
the group. The King continues to seek a visit to Washington,
particularly given his assessment that the image of a meeting
with the President would help convince a disillusioned public
that moderation results in influence with Washington.

Cabinet Reshuffle
--------------


5. (C) Your visit comes in the wake of the February 23
reshuffle of Prime Minister Nader Al-Dahabi's cabinet,
including Foreign Minister Saleh Al-Bashir who has been
replaced by former Minister of State for Media Affairs Nasser
Joudeh.

Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/
Beecroft