JORDAN: PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR PARLIAMENT'S

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002576 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR AID E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL JO SUBJECT: JORDAN: PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR PARLIAMENT'S DISSOLUTION REMAINS HIGH REF: AMMAN 2563 Classified By: R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (S//NF) Summary: Public opinion continues to reflect support for the King's November 23 decree to dissolve parliament and call for early parliamentary elections (reftel). However, Lower House Speaker Abdel Hadi al-Majali, who had been one of the most criticized members of parliament, announced to the press that he would not seek re-election as speaker. In pursuit of electoral reform, some proposals have been forwarded to the Prime Minister, but it remains to be seen whether the government will be able to successfully push forward a meaningful new electoral law. End Summary. Media Reflects Public Support for Dissolution -------------- ¶2. (S//NF) Most daily newspapers featured articles highlighting excitement and support for a new parliament and outlets were resoundingly supportive of the King's decision. The main reasons the public support this dissolution, according to many dailies, is the weakness of the former parliament and its lack of credibility. Al-Ra'y newspaper called the decision "an Eid Al-Adha gift to the people of Jordan," and several dailies published the entire text of the King's announcement letter. Only Al-Sabeel, Jordan's leading Islamist newspaper, featured a semi-critical article highlighting the plight of hundreds of parliamentary employees who were left without jobs right before the Eid holiday. In an attempt to gauge public opinion on November 24, Ammonnews.com surveyed 200 people, including unnamed politicians, party activists, journalists, academics, tribal and civil society members. According to this poll, 85 percent of Jordanians surveyed approve of the dissolution, and 78 percent of respondents believe the former parliament's incompetence is to blame. More interestingly, 88 percent strongly support the establishment of an independent body to facilitate elections, and 90 percent were supportive of early elections. Speaker Majali Will Not Run Again -------------- ¶3. (S//NF) Lower House Speaker Majali told Ammonnews.com on November 25 that he will not run for Speaker in the upcoming parliamentary elections and he stated that he may not even run for a seat at all. Majali told the press that he is content with his record of service to the country and the King, and did not publicly cite specific reasons for his decision. (Comment: Majali was allegedly not given prior notification about the dissolution, and he may want to retire at the top rather than risk a humiliating public loss in the next election for Speaker. He has been criticized by the Jordanian public because he was perceived as having been ineffective as a leader of the current unpopular parliament. There are rumors that he will be appointed by the King as a senator in the Upper House of Parliament. End comment.) NCHR Recommendation as Jumping Off Point for Electoral Law? -------------- -------------- ¶4. (S//NF) Recently, the National Center for Human Rights (NCHR) publicly submitted 18 recommendations for substantial electoral reform to the Prime Minister as part of a USAID-supported electoral reform project. Based on those recommendations, NCHR is currently drafting an amended version of the law. (Comment: NCHR Commissioner General Muhyieddeen Touq reportedly plans to submit a draft amended law to the Prime Minister "quickly" and the drafting committee with be meeting again after Eid. Despite NCHR's enthusiasm, it is unclear to what extent the government plans to use the draft amended law, if at all. End Comment.) ¶5. (S//NF) Recommendation highlights include proposals to: -- Amend the "one man, one vote" system and replacing it with a mixed electoral system where an individual could vote for a governorate-level candidate in addition to a district candidate. -- Redraw district lines to make them a better and more fair representation of population demographics. -- Establish a neutral independent higher national commission to supervise the electoral process, with the judiciary managing the commission. AMMAN 00002576 002 OF 002 -- Allowing civil society organizations to monitor the electoral process in coordination with the national higher election committee. -- Avoid repeat voting or individuals voting in districts they do not live in by requiring voters to present legal documentation. Actively prevent the transfer of votes from one district to another and hold the persons involved in the vote transfer legally accountable. -- Publicize voter lists electronically and via other means; make the lists available to all candidates. -- Enhance penalties for electoral crimes, including vote buying, and guaranteeing transparency on candidate funding. -- Ensure fairness among candidates by giving them equal access to national media coverage free of charge and with equal coverage. Stop all campaigns 48 hours before the start of voting. Comment -------------- ¶6. (S//NF) It bodes well that, overall, the public and the press see the King's dissolution and the prospect of a new parliament as a positive development. However, attention appears to be focused only on the short-term rather than looking ahead to discuss how a new parliament will be elected or whether it will improve upon the performance of its predecessors. However, advocates of reform welcomed Majali's resignation, as he was viewed by many as an obstacle to important GOJ and civil society initiatives. ¶7. (S//NF) The focus will now be on the specific measures under discussion for the new electoral reform law. Details have not been provided by the GOJ on how quickly a new law will be passed and how comprehensive the reforms may be. While the NCHR recommendations appear comprehensive, the Chief of the Royal Court, Nasser Lozi, told the Ambassador that this is one of many submissions which will be considered in the formulation of the new law. While the drafting of the law may take some time, it is unclear how long public euphoria will last before hard questions are asked and elements of Jordanian society begin to calculate how new reforms could improve or worsen their own positions domestically. End Comment. Beecroft