ROYAL DECREE DELAYS OPENING OF JORDAN'S PARLIAMENT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002143 SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2019 TAGS: PGOV ECON KDEM JO SUBJECT: ROYAL DECREE DELAYS OPENING OF JORDAN'S PARLIAMENT BY TWO MONTHS REF: AMMAN 2098 Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: The opening of the Jordanian parliament's fall session was delayed for two months following a royal decree on September 16. The decree came as a surprise to our contacts in parliament and the government. The primary reason for the delay is the budget. With foreign assistance funds falling, the delay will allow the King to make the rounds of donor countries once more before the annual budget is crafted. A related reason is the tax law, in which the government is looking to revisit parliamentary changes implemented during the extraordinary session. A potential cabinet reshuffle and anticipated developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict likely also played a role in the delayed session. End Summary. Session Delayed -------------- ¶2. (C) Late in the day on September 16, King Abdullah released a royal decree delaying the opening of parliament's ordinary session by two months. The decree did not contain a reason for the delay. According to Jordan's constitution, parliament is supposed to convene on October 1 of every year for an address from the King prior to the start of a four month session. The constitution allows for a maximum two month delay if proclaimed by royal decree, however. While delays in the start of the ordinary session have not yet occurred in the Abdullah era, they were routine under King Hussein. ¶3. (C) The decree came as a complete surprise to our contacts. Usually such moves are preceded by rumors, but this time the announcement came without prelude. Even a contact in the Prime Ministry who normally receives advance notice about such moves learned about the delay from the media. MPs were eager to get back to work after the summer extraordinary session was prematurely cut off, but are taking the delay in stride. Many MPs have spent the past month lobbying behind the scenes for various candidates in the annual parliamentary leadership election. The delayed session will give those opposing lower house speaker Abdulhadi Al-Majali more time to rally around an alternative candidate and develop their case for change. Reason One: The Budget -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) Two interconnected reasons have emerged for the delay. The first is Jordan's budget, which usually appears on parliament's docket immediately after the leadership elections are finished. Unlike in recent years, Jordan NOW faces a serious shortfall in foreign assistance. The King's recent regional tour (in which he visited Saudi Arabia, Libya, the UAE, Morocco, and Kuwait) was focused on plugging the gaps in Jordan's budget. In the absence of official announcements about new aid flows as a result of the trip, our contacts believe that the delay in parliament's session is designed to allow the King time to make a second effort. Royal Court Chief Nasser Lozi confirmed to the Ambassador that budgetary woes are the primary reason for the delay. ¶5. (S/NF) If the King is unsuccessful in generating new revenues, the 2010 budget may represent a significant change in how public money is spent. Lozi said that the delay is also designed to give the government time to assess which parts of the budget may need to be cut in the event that available financing shrinks. ¶6. (C) Regardless of the King's ability to bring in more assistance funds, the delay in parliament's ordinary session is likely to produce a similar delay in adoption of the 2010 budget. Once the session convenes on December 1, at least a week will be devoted to election of the parliament's leadership. With the membership and leadership of the committees still in doubt for the next two months, the government will not be able to prepare the appropriate committee chairs for the budget and its contents. As a result, the committees will likely take some time to get up to speed on the budget once they are selected. Reason Two: The Tax Law -------------- ¶7. (C) The second reason for the delay is the tax law. During the extraordinary session, parliament proposed a series of amendments to the law which would have radically altered a carefully crafted compromise between different AMMAN 00002143 002 OF 002 factions in the government. After voting on the first twelve articles of the law, it became clear that the end result of the law was not what the government had in mind. In order to contain the potential damage and regroup, the government requested that the King end the session early. ¶8. (C) In advance of the ordinary session, the government has been looking for a way to annul the votes on the first twelve articles of the law and start from the beginning again. Contacts in parliament have told us that after the leadership elections result in the usual shift in committee leadership, the government will likely request that the tax law be re-sent back to the Finance Committee. The argument will be that the previous committee recommended a series of changes that the new chairman may not be familiar with. In order to adequately defend the law on the floor, the new chairman will need to study the law and proposed amendments recommended by the previous committee. ¶9. (C) In the run-up to the ordinary session, it was unclear how the parliamentary leadership elections would impact membership on the Finance Committee. While current speaker Abdulhadi Al-Majali seemed to be coasting to re-election, it was unclear which other factions in the parliament would be part of his coalition. Delaying the session will allow the government time to lobby for a change in the committee leadership and refine its arguments about the tax law before it again comes to a vote. The Israeli-Palestinian Factor -------------- ¶10. (S/NF) Lozi acknowledged to the Ambassador that a secondary reason for the delay was the government's desire to keep parliament silent in the event of movement towards a solution to the Israeli-Palestinan conflict, as they have been quite vocal on developments in the recent past. Given recent talk among high-level contacts about their collective desire to dissolve parliament, it is also possible that the delay was taken in the hope that developments in the conflict will create an excuse for the King to disband parliament and implement political reform directly (reftel). While the economic justifications given by MPs and government officials are foremost on the agenda at the moment, dissolution may also be on the minds of our interlocutors. Prelude To A Reshuffle? -------------- ¶11. (C) The King's decree will likely result in increased speculation about a cabinet reshuffle. Background chatter on changes in government is par for the course in Jordan, particularly when natural milestones such as the end of Ramadan or the start of a parliamentary session are imminent. While the Dahabi government has NOW lasted longer than the average Jordanian government in the Abdullah era, there are few indications that change is in the air. While many of our contacts believe that the government is running on fumes and has lost its drive, there are no rhetorical markers that would lead us to believe that Dahabi is on his way out. Beecroft