JORDAN: SCANDAL THREATENS TO END BASSEM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002000 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPAL JO SUBJECT: JORDAN: SCANDAL THREATENS TO END BASSEM AWADALLAH'S POLITICAL CAREER REF: A. 08 AMMAN 2673 ¶B. 08 AMMAN 2671 ¶C. 08 AMMAN 1984 Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Bassem Awadallah, former Royal Court Chief and champion of reform, is getting a divorce after allegedly beating his wife of four months. Many who had tapped Awadallah as the next Prime Minister now see him as a liability whose political career may be over. The scandal may have an adverse impact on Awdallah's progressive political allies as well. The loss of Awadallah as a political player leaves reform without an effective standard bearer. End Summary. Former Royal Court Chief At Center Of Scandal -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Royal Court Chief Bassem Awadallah and Sarah, his wife of four months, are filing for divorce. This comes on the heels of reports that Awadallah assaulted his wife in late July. The beating was reportedly so severe that Sarah was taken briefly to the hospital for an examination and still suffers from bruising on her arms and legs. Awadallah has privately denied the allegations. ¶3. (C) Awadallah has a history of romantic entanglements gone sour. He was briefly engaged in 2007, and many still talk about a previous engagement to a Palestinian-origin ARAMCO employee that was quickly dissolved. The latest incident adds further blights on Awadallah's relationships and private life. While none of Awadallah's marital woes have been reported in the mainstream media, they have become a primary topic of interest in political salons around Amman and on internet gossip sites. ¶4. (C) Awadallah is a polarizing figure in Jordanian politics due to his support for political and economic reform which create fears among East Bankers that his Palestinian roots guide his policy priorities. As a consequence, he has always been the target of character assassins and vague rumors (reftels). Now that Awadallah's detractors have a concrete incident to point to, even his supporters are starting to recognize that he has become a political liability. Heir Today, Gone Tomorrow -------------- ¶5. (SBU) With the opening of a new Parliamentary session, the two year anniversary of the Dahabi government, and the end of Ramadan in sight, speculation has been brewing in Amman for months that the King is preparing a change in government. While there is no concrete evidence or even hints from our official interlocutors that a change is afoot, the coming season of traditional political landmarks is causing the usual uptick in speculation. ¶6. (C) Many had assumed up to this point that Awadallah was a strong candidate for the PM job in the next government. (Note: Awadallah was reportedly a strong candidate for the position in the previous round, which ultimately produced current PM Nader Dahabi. End Note.) Many note that Awadallah remains a trusted informal advisor to the King, making time to keep his hand in the political game despite his lucrative business dealings in the Gulf. Now, all of the positive momentum that Awadallah had built up has evaporated. ¶7. (C) What remains uncertain is the impact that the scandal will have on Awadallah's ideas and political allies. While Awadallah's already precarious standing may have further shaken the confidence of the political elite, there are several current and former officials who may also suffer politically from their association with him. In particular, the talk of former Foreign Minister Salah Al-Bashir's potential return to the government may be waning due to his known affiliation with Awadallah and his political views. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) While Awadallah has retained the King's ear on a number of key political and economic issues, it was a cascade of rumors which eventually brought his formal role in the Royal Court to an end just one year ago. Political and economic reform in Jordan now lacks a standard bearer with the political capital and strength of will necessary to take the necessary risks on its behalf. It is difficult to imagine a scenario that would allow Awadallah to return to an active political life in Jordan in the near term. AMMAN 00002000 002 OF 002 Beecroft