JORDAN'S KING, FM DISCUSS MIDEAST PEACE AND IRAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001483 SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG IS IR SA SY JO SUBJECT: JORDAN'S KING, FM DISCUSS MIDEAST PEACE AND IRAN WITH CODEL SCHIFF Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran dominated Codel Schiff's discussions with King Abdullah and Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh during a June 27-30 visit to Jordan. The King and FM detailed confidence building measures Arab states would offer in the run-up to final status negotiations with Israel. The FM speculated that Saudi Arabia will remain on the sidelines of negotiations until the outcome becomes apparent, and the King theorized that Syria's interest in negotiations was more economic than political. The King and FM voiced concern that Iran would stir up trouble through its proxies to demonstrate its continued influence and relevance in the region. They also said that instability in Iran presented an opportunity to nudge Qatar and Syria closer to the moderate Arab camp. The King spoke of his willingness to help counter extremism in Yemen if the strategic goals and rules of engagement were clarified. End Summary. Moving Forward on Israel-Palestine -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) King Abdullah told the Codel that the Arab states were preparing a package of deliverables such as overflight rights and communications links which will serve as interim confidence-building measures to move negotiations forward. During the preparation of this package, however, the King noted that continuing settlement activity has emerged as a stumbling block. FM Judeh said that even a temporary moratorium on settlement activity could have a big impact on attracting Arab states to the negotiating table. The King hoped that the Arab states would agree on a package soon so that a conference to launch final status negotiations could be convened as early as this month. ¶3. (S/NF) Commenting on Israeli PM Netanyahu's recent speech, the King talked about the need to positively focus on the PM's recognition of the two-state solution. While the King recognized Netanyahu's difficulty in keeping his coalition together, he asserted that Jordan and peace negotiations should not be held hostage to the domestic political situation in Israel. ¶4. (S/NF) The King and other Jordanian officials voiced their satisfaction with American engagement. FM Judeh called it "a strong and clear signal that the commitment is there" and praised the "unity of discourse" between Congress and the administration. Lauding the President's Cairo speech, the King and FM both noted that it had a concrete impact in the Lebanese and Iranian elections. In a separate Codel meeting, Prince Ghazi noted that "the President's 'asks' were completely deliverable," and that it was now up to the Arab world to respond. The Role of Regional Actors -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) Reflecting on the Saudi role in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, the FM painted Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas's recent visit to Riyadh as positive and a welcome change from recent unproductive exchanges. The FM noted that the Saudis "take things personally," and were upset about the failure of the Mecca agreement they brokered between Fatah and Hamas. According to the FM, the Saudis are unhappy with financial mismanagement in the PA and want to see some personnel changes. They are hesitant to contribute anything beyond the Arab League aid targets for fear that Hamas will end up with some of the money. The FM expects Saudi Arabia to remain on the sidelines of peace negotiations until the path forward is clear. "The Saudis feel they're the big prize at the end," he said. ¶6. (S/NF) During a brief aside about Syria's role in peace negotiations, the King said that Syria is focused more on the economic benefits of detente with the West than its territorial aspirations in the Golan Heights. The King mentioned that "Syria is more interested in dollar signs" than return of its territory. Iran -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) In his comments on the Iranian election, the King called the protests "payback" for Iran's interference in the region. Both the King and the FM talked about a "crack" in the facade of Iran, but the depth of which was not yet known. The King said that while Supreme Leader Khameini is not appearing so "supreme" lately, the alternatives of Moussavi AMMAN 00001483 002 OF 002 and Rafsanjani are likely equally unpalatable, as they come from a clerical background. ¶8. (S/NF) The King spoke about instability in Iran as an opportunity to deal with its proxies in the Levant. He called the political upheaval in Iran a "good tool" that Arab moderates could use to work on bringing Syria and Qatar back into the moderate Arab fold. The King was recently visited by the Emir of Qatar, a trip he believes was an attempt to hedge Qatar's bets in the event of change in Iran. Both the King and FM voiced concern that Iran may urge Hizbollah or Hamas to act out in order to prove its continuing relevance and ability to act as a spoiler. ¶9. (S/NF) All of the Codel's interlocutors drew a connection between Iran's influence and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The FM noted that "the road to Tehran runs through Jerusalem" -- progress on Iran will only occur when the Palestinian issue can no longer be used as a bargaining chip. The King and FM talked about a common Arab and Israeli interest in containing Iran, and lamented that the lack of progress in final status negotiations makes combined action on Iran politically difficult. ¶10. (U) Codel Schiff has not cleared this cable. Members of the Codel were: Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA),Rep. Cliff Stearns (R-FL),Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D-TX),Rep. Gene Green (D-TX), and Rep. Donald Manzullo (R-IL). Staffers included in the trip were Shalanda Young, Celia Alvarado, and John Blazey. Beecroft