CODEL MCCONNELL'S APRIL 9 MEETING WITH JORDAN'S

S E C R E T AMMAN 001006 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL IR IS IZ JO SUBJECT: CODEL MCCONNELL'S APRIL 9 MEETING WITH JORDAN'S KING Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary: King Abdullah discussed with CODEL McConnell the peace process, Iran, and Syria, as well as Iraq and Qatar. The King stressed the importance of immediately pursuing a comprehensive peace settlement in the Middle East, emphasized that the Arab states could support the U.S. in confronting Iran but only after progress is made on the peace process, and advised that benchmarks be included in any dialogue with Syria. King Abdullah also offered a relatively optimistic assessment of Iraq and recommended a course for pressuring Qatar over Al-Jazeera's television coverage. End Summary. Delegation and Meetings -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) led a congressional delegation to Jordan from April 8 -11 which included Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA),Senator John Barrasso (R-WY),and Senator James Risch(R-ID). In addition to the audience with King Abdullah, delegation members met with Jordan's Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh together with Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Suhair Al-Ali. Senator McConnell's spouse, former Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao, separately paid a courtesy call on Minister of Labor Gazi Shbeikat. These meetings will be reported septel. Rapid Progress on Peace Essential -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) King Abdullah emphasized to the delegation that there is no time to spare in pursuing a comprehensive peace settlement in the Middle East. The goal, he said, should not be a "process" but rather a "57-State Solution" (including all Arab and Muslim states). King Abdullah said he hoped to see real progress toward securing principles for resolving the conflict in the next four to six weeks. Asked by Senator Chambliss about the new Israeli government, the King said Jordan's past experience with Israeli PM Benyamin Netanyahu had not been pleasant, but that Israeli officials had contacted Jordanian leaders since the election to offer olive branches on Netanyahu's behalf. They had passed the message that the new Israeli Government would be a partner on peace and that Jordan should focus on Israel's actions not its rhetoric. The King noted that Israel's demographic reality--the balance between Arabs and Jews--is getting worse for Israel and in five to eight years will prove a truly �0A;daunting obstacle to peace. Israel should reach a peace deal while it is still strong and able rather than waiting for seven to eight more years when it will be weaker and not secure enough to make the concessions necessary for an agreement. ¶4. (S) As for the Palestinians, King Abdullah said their chief problem is fragmentation, a condition he predicted would only worsen if the peace process were delayed. Ongoing violence continues to push the population toward Hamas, which advocates resistance over engagement. Reiterating his call for quick progress in establishing principles for negotiations, King Abdullah noted that Hamas would reject any reconciliation government that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas could propose and thus Jordan's belief is that negotiations must continue to run through Abbas. King Abdullah on Iran, Syria -------------- ¶5. (S) Responding to questions from Senators McConnell and Chambliss on Iran, King Abdullah noted that there is no natural support in the Arab world for Iran, much less for a nuclear-armed Iran. Arab leaders feel almost as strongly about this as do Israeli leaders, however, stalled peace negotiations with Israel impede efforts to build on this shared perspective. The King said the Jordanian public sees Iran as defending the Palestinians. Iran has hijacked the Palestinian cause and, until progress in negotiations allows the Arab states to reclaim it, no Arab state would challenge Iran. If a strike were to occur before resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli and Arab-Israeli disputes, the Arab states would support Iran. If, in contrast, negotiations on both tracks were proceeding, the equation would be different. On the subject of Iranian leadership, King Abdullah asserted that all Iranian leaders have similar intentions, but an aggressive Iranian president such as Ahmedinejad is more transparent than a subtle president who would simply be a "wolf in sheep's clothing." The King noted that Iranian leaders remained focused on economic problems, thanks in part to sanctions, which should be continued. ¶6. (S) Responding to a question from Senator Chambliss on Syria, the King predicted that the Syrians would send all the right messages and signals but that any engagement with Syria should include benchmarks focused on performance. The King said that President Bashar Al-Asad has a more modern mindset than many in Syria and that Asad is slowly surrounding himself with more forward-thinking advisors. Asad, however, thinks that he has outplayed the U.S. and that the U.S. needs him more than he needs the U.S. The King said he has been trying to tell the Syrians in his conversations with them that U.S. policy toward Syria has not yet changed and that Syria still must improve its behavior before expecting better relations with the U.S. ¶7. (S) The King emphasized that Jordan hopes to be consulted before the U.S. formulates new policy toward Syria and Iran, rather than be briefed after the fact on an already established approach. Iraq Trends Positive -------------- ¶8. (S) Senator Barrasso queried the King on Iraq and the impact of U.S. troop withdrawal. The King noted that Iraqi PM Nuri Al-Maliki had become a national leader and that Iraq has generally become a positive story. The King said he expected violence would continue for a time but that the overall trend would remain positive--a long march to the light. He added that it was important to pull Maliki from the Iranian camp into the Arab camp. Jordanian officials are working to remove a chief obstacle to Arab-Iraqi rapprochement, namely Saudi antipathy toward Maliki. Saudi King Abdullah, however, continues to regard Maliki as an officer in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Al-Jazeera and the Qataris -------------- ¶9. (S) Responding to a question from Senator Risch, the King noted that Al-Jazeera's coverage of Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 2006 had made Hizballah, Iran, and Syria heroes in Arab eyes and that the channel's influence cannot be underestimated. Qatar, he said, uses Al-Jazeera. It gets away with it, as it does with the more general strategy of playing all sides, because the strategic importance of Al-Udeid Airbase prevents the U.S. from taking Qatar to task. The King assessed that were the U.S. to transfer some of its forces currently based at Al-Udeid to the UAE and Bahrain, it would scare the Qataris into greater flexibility on Al-Jazeera. ¶10. (SBU) National Security Advisor to Senator McConnell, Tom Hawkins, the Senators' spouses, and the Ambassador also participated in the audience. ¶11. (U) CODEL McConnell cleared this message. Visit Embassy Amman's Website http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ Beecroft