MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, U.S.-JAPAN-TAIWAN

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000814

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, U.S.-JAPAN-TAIWAN
RELATIONS


1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their
July 3-6 news coverage on President Ma Ying-jeou's trip in Latin
America; on the developments in cross-Strait relations; on the
university entrance examination for senior high school students
island-wide; and on the shoulder injury of Taiwan-born New York
Yankees pitcher Wang Chien-ming. In terms of editorials and
commentaries, an editorial in the conservative, pro-unification,
English-language "China Post" welcomed the AIT announcement last
Wednesday of the appointment of its new Taipei director. Several
op-ed pieces also discussed Japan's plan to deploy troops on
Yonaguni island in the East China Sea. An op-ed in the
pro-independence "Liberty Times" said given the United States' and
Japan's plans to station military forces on Yonaguni island, it
appears that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is getting more
dangerous. A column in the pro-unification "United Daily News" said
the developments in cross-Strait relations should provide a new
direction in thinking for both Japan and the United States. An
op-ed piece in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei
Times," however, said "the move is aimed at Taiwan rather than
China." End summary.


2. U.S.-Taiwan Relations

"New AIT Chief Welcome"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (7/3):

"Once again, the helm of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) is
due to be transferred from one career diplomat to another.
According to an announcement just made by the AIT, the current AIT
Taipei office director Stephen M. Young will be replaced next month
by William A. Stanton, the current deputy chief of mission at the
U.S. embassy in Seoul, South Korea. Stanton, who will take over as
America's de facto ambassador in Taipei, following a month of
consultation in Washington, possesses valuable experience in this
region, and his appointment is welcomed. ...

"Stanton's job will include preparatory work for moving AIT's Taipei
headquarters from its present location on Xinyi Road -- which used
to house a military advisory office and is now considered a security
threat due to its proximity to the street -- to a brand new location
in the suburb of Neihu. AIT's move will symbolize the permanency of
close ties between Taipei and Washington, even though they remain
"unofficial" due to the lack of formal diplomatic relations.

"Over recent weeks, news reports had suggested that Stanton's
appointment by U.S. President Barack Obama had somehow been stymied
by comments he purportedly made to congressional staff members
visiting the embassy in Korea. ... Experience shows that whenever
there is a succession at AIT's Taipei office, vicious rumors start
circulating in Washington about the director-to-be in the hopes of
shooting down the appointment. ...

"President Obama was wise to make this appointment in a timely
fashion. When Obama's predecessor, Bush, took over the White House,
it was nearly two years before he got around to making important
personnel appointments at AIT. ... Now, President Obama is widely
expected to replace Burghardt as AIT chairman at any time, although
nothing much has appeared in the media to suggest who might take
Burghardt's place. Judging by the appointment of Stanton, we expect
Obama will avoid making the mistakes of his predecessors, Bush and
Clinton, when it comes to making this important appointment.
Hopefully, Obama's advisors have learned the lessons of past
administrations and will give careful thought before making any
recommendations."


3. U.S.-Japan-Taiwan Relations

A) "Cross-Strait [Relations] Not Secure; U.S., Japan to Station
Military on Yonaguni Island"

Yun Cheng, a freelancer focusing on Taiwan issues, opined in the
pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 700,000] (7/4):

"Regarding the reports that the United States and Japan are planning
to station military forces on Yonaguni Island (and the United
States' AIR FORCE presence on the Shimoji Island),there are two
interpretations in Taiwan -- taking precautions against China, or
taking precautions against Taiwan. The former interpretation is
based on the traditional idea of containment, while the latter is
derived from the anticipation that Taiwan will become part of China
-- different people holding different views. But a close look at
the U.S. military deployment on Yonaguni Island revealed that it is
Apache attack helicopters that are stationed on the island, and one
cannot help but be surprised that such a move is not about [the
United States'] AIR supremacy. Rather, it is an alternative option
for [possible] defensive warfare on the island and the follow-on
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protection and repatriation of the American people from the island
in case Taiwan loses its AIR supremacy. It appears that the Taiwan
Strait has not become more secure but more dangerous.

"... As a result, in the long run, the Ma administration's endless
tilting to China and resistance against Japan will not be able to
make the Taiwan Strait more secure. Despite the State Department's
compliment [toward the Ma administration], this is something odd
that the United States is doing instead -- to proceed with military
deployment proactively. ... While Ma Ying-jeou is on an overseas
trip, the proposal tossed off by China's Taiwan Affairs Office
Director Wang Yi on 'opening the middle line of the Taiwan Strait'
and the 'establishment of military confidence building measures'
were exactly the consequences of [the Ma administration's] 'rapid
reconciliation' [with China] and its 'cultural and economic errors'.
Further developments [in the Taiwan Strait] will certainly affect
the future direction of the upper-level structure -- namely, the
United States and Japan."

B) "Significance of Stationing Military on Yonaguni Island"

The "Black and White" column in the pro-unification "United Daily
News" [circulation: 400,000] wrote (7/4):

"... Now that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are moving toward
reconciliation, [the importance of] military factors [in
cross-Strait relations] are dropping dramatically. Japan, as a
result, will come up with a different contingency plan. When the
chances are slim for both sides of the Taiwan Strait to resolve the
cross-Strait relations with wars but instead, with economic
interaction, it would be unlikely that Japan would adopt military
means, if it wants to maintain a situation favorable for itself in
the Taiwan Strait. Instead, Japan should also use economic means to
help Taiwan consolidate its democracy and economic independence.
This is a new development for both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and
should also be a new [direction] in thinking for Japan and the
United States. ..."

C) "Yonaguni Plans Raise Questions for Taiwan"

Lai I-chung, director of foreign policy studies at the Taiwan
Thinktank, opined in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei
Times" [circulation: 30,000] (7/6):
"Recent news reports said the US and Japan are planning to station
military on Yonaguni Island in response to demands from local
residents following China's military expansion. A closer analysis,
however, shows that it is more likely that such a military
deployment would be the result of US and Japanese questions about
the future strategic direction of Taiwan. In other words, the move
is aimed at Taiwan rather than China. ... It is the Japanese
territory closest to Taiwan. Taiwan shields Yonaguni from China, and
it lies quite a distance away from the Philippines, so there can
only be two reasons for stationing troops there.

"The first reason is that the US and Japan believe there is a very
high risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and that after an
outbreak of war, it is very likely that Chinese military would enter
and leave Taiwan on the east coast, which would be the reason for
strengthening the military presence on Yonaguni. This implies that
the US and Japan do not buy into the claim by Taiwan's government
that cross-strait tensions have fallen and that the situation has
stabilized, and that they are stationing military east of Hualien to
prepare for all eventualities. The second possibility is that the
US and Japan feel the accession of President Ma Ying-jeou's
administration has brought about a fundamental change in the
direction of Taiwanese strategy and the two countries are therefore
preparing for the possibility that Taiwan would side with China in a
hypothetical future conflict between the US and Japan on the one
hand, and China on the other. ...

"These concerns prohibit the US-Japanese alliance from treating
Taiwan as an ally. If Taiwan were to cooperate with their opponent,
Hualien would no longer function as a shield from China and Yonaguni
would be on the front line of the conflict and it would also be used
to monitor Taiwan's actions. Regardless of whether the US and Japan
station troops on Yonaguni because they are worried about Taiwan or
because they want to monitor Taiwan, such action does not coincide
with what the Ma administration has said. Late this year, Japan
will announce its defense strategy outline, and next year is the
50th anniversary of the US-Japanese alliance. By that time, the
plans of the two allies will become clearer. However, the fact that
the promise to let Taiwan assemble P3-C anti-submarine aircraft fell
through tells us that Taipei has become a strategic uncertainty
factor. As a result of the government moving closer to China,
distancing itself from the US and opposing Japan, Taiwan has gone
from being a friend that cooperates with the US and Japan to a
country that the two allies must defend themselves against. The
stationing of troops on Yonaguni will be the first step in this
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change."
WANG