MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, U.S.-JAPAN-TAIWAN

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000814 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, U.S.-JAPAN-TAIWAN RELATIONS ¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their July 3-6 news coverage on President Ma Ying-jeou's trip in Latin America; on the developments in cross-Strait relations; on the university entrance examination for senior high school students island-wide; and on the shoulder injury of Taiwan-born New York Yankees pitcher Wang Chien-ming. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" welcomed the AIT announcement last Wednesday of the appointment of its new Taipei director. Several op-ed pieces also discussed Japan's plan to deploy troops on Yonaguni island in the East China Sea. An op-ed in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" said given the United States' and Japan's plans to station military forces on Yonaguni island, it appears that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is getting more dangerous. A column in the pro-unification "United Daily News" said the developments in cross-Strait relations should provide a new direction in thinking for both Japan and the United States. An op-ed piece in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times," however, said "the move is aimed at Taiwan rather than China." End summary. ¶2. U.S.-Taiwan Relations "New AIT Chief Welcome" The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (7/3): "Once again, the helm of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) is due to be transferred from one career diplomat to another. According to an announcement just made by the AIT, the current AIT Taipei office director Stephen M. Young will be replaced next month by William A. Stanton, the current deputy chief of mission at the U.S. embassy in Seoul, South Korea. Stanton, who will take over as America's de facto ambassador in Taipei, following a month of consultation in Washington, possesses valuable experience in this region, and his appointment is welcomed. ... "Stanton's job will include preparatory work for moving AIT's Taipei headquarters from its present location on Xinyi Road -- which used to house a military advisory office and is now considered a security threat due to its proximity to the street -- to a brand new location in the suburb of Neihu. AIT's move will symbolize the permanency of close ties between Taipei and Washington, even though they remain "unofficial" due to the lack of formal diplomatic relations. "Over recent weeks, news reports had suggested that Stanton's appointment by U.S. President Barack Obama had somehow been stymied by comments he purportedly made to congressional staff members visiting the embassy in Korea. ... Experience shows that whenever there is a succession at AIT's Taipei office, vicious rumors start circulating in Washington about the director-to-be in the hopes of shooting down the appointment. ... "President Obama was wise to make this appointment in a timely fashion. When Obama's predecessor, Bush, took over the White House, it was nearly two years before he got around to making important personnel appointments at AIT. ... Now, President Obama is widely expected to replace Burghardt as AIT chairman at any time, although nothing much has appeared in the media to suggest who might take Burghardt's place. Judging by the appointment of Stanton, we expect Obama will avoid making the mistakes of his predecessors, Bush and Clinton, when it comes to making this important appointment. Hopefully, Obama's advisors have learned the lessons of past administrations and will give careful thought before making any recommendations." ¶3. U.S.-Japan-Taiwan Relations A) "Cross-Strait [Relations] Not Secure; U.S., Japan to Station Military on Yonaguni Island" Yun Cheng, a freelancer focusing on Taiwan issues, opined in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 700,000] (7/4): "Regarding the reports that the United States and Japan are planning to station military forces on Yonaguni Island (and the United States' air force presence on the Shimoji Island),there are two interpretations in Taiwan -- taking precautions against China, or taking precautions against Taiwan. The former interpretation is based on the traditional idea of containment, while the latter is derived from the anticipation that Taiwan will become part of China -- different people holding different views. But a close look at the U.S. military deployment on Yonaguni Island revealed that it is Apache attack helicopters that are stationed on the island, and one cannot help but be surprised that such a move is not about [the United States'] air supremacy. Rather, it is an alternative option for [possible] defensive warfare on the island and the follow-on RELATIONS protection and repatriation of the American people from the island in case Taiwan loses its air supremacy. It appears that the Taiwan Strait has not become more secure but more dangerous. "... As a result, in the long run, the Ma administration's endless tilting to China and resistance against Japan will not be able to make the Taiwan Strait more secure. Despite the State Department's compliment [toward the Ma administration], this is something odd that the United States is doing instead -- to proceed with military deployment proactively. ... While Ma Ying-jeou is on an overseas trip, the proposal tossed off by China's Taiwan Affairs Office Director Wang Yi on 'opening the middle line of the Taiwan Strait' and the 'establishment of military confidence building measures' were exactly the consequences of [the Ma administration's] 'rapid reconciliation' [with China] and its 'cultural and economic errors'. Further developments [in the Taiwan Strait] will certainly affect the future direction of the upper-level structure -- namely, the United States and Japan." B) "Significance of Stationing Military on Yonaguni Island" The "Black and White" column in the pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] wrote (7/4): "... Now that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are moving toward reconciliation, [the importance of] military factors [in cross-Strait relations] are dropping dramatically. Japan, as a result, will come up with a different contingency plan. When the chances are slim for both sides of the Taiwan Strait to resolve the cross-Strait relations with wars but instead, with economic interaction, it would be unlikely that Japan would adopt military means, if it wants to maintain a situation favorable for itself in the Taiwan Strait. Instead, Japan should also use economic means to help Taiwan consolidate its democracy and economic independence. This is a new development for both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and should also be a new [direction] in thinking for Japan and the United States. ..." C) "Yonaguni Plans Raise Questions for Taiwan" Lai I-chung, director of foreign policy studies at the Taiwan Thinktank, opined in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (7/6): "Recent news reports said the US and Japan are planning to station military on Yonaguni Island in response to demands from local residents following China's military expansion. A closer analysis, however, shows that it is more likely that such a military deployment would be the result of US and Japanese questions about the future strategic direction of Taiwan. In other words, the move is aimed at Taiwan rather than China. ... It is the Japanese territory closest to Taiwan. Taiwan shields Yonaguni from China, and it lies quite a distance away from the Philippines, so there can only be two reasons for stationing troops there. "The first reason is that the US and Japan believe there is a very high risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and that after an outbreak of war, it is very likely that Chinese military would enter and leave Taiwan on the east coast, which would be the reason for strengthening the military presence on Yonaguni. This implies that the US and Japan do not buy into the claim by Taiwan's government that cross-strait tensions have fallen and that the situation has stabilized, and that they are stationing military east of Hualien to prepare for all eventualities. The second possibility is that the US and Japan feel the accession of President Ma Ying-jeou's administration has brought about a fundamental change in the direction of Taiwanese strategy and the two countries are therefore preparing for the possibility that Taiwan would side with China in a hypothetical future conflict between the US and Japan on the one hand, and China on the other. ... "These concerns prohibit the US-Japanese alliance from treating Taiwan as an ally. If Taiwan were to cooperate with their opponent, Hualien would no longer function as a shield from China and Yonaguni would be on the front line of the conflict and it would also be used to monitor Taiwan's actions. Regardless of whether the US and Japan station troops on Yonaguni because they are worried about Taiwan or because they want to monitor Taiwan, such action does not coincide with what the Ma administration has said. Late this year, Japan will announce its defense strategy outline, and next year is the 50th anniversary of the US-Japanese alliance. By that time, the plans of the two allies will become clearer. However, the fact that the promise to let Taiwan assemble P3-C anti-submarine aircraft fell through tells us that Taipei has become a strategic uncertainty factor. As a result of the government moving closer to China, distancing itself from the US and opposing Japan, Taiwan has gone from being a friend that cooperates with the US and Japan to a country that the two allies must defend themselves against. The stationing of troops on Yonaguni will be the first step in this RELATIONS change." WANG