MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, NORTH KOREA

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000628

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, NORTH KOREA


1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their
May 23-26 news coverage on the H1N1 influenza epidemic in Taiwan; on
former South KoreaN President Roh Moo-hyun's suicide; on the junior
high school students' exams for entering senior high schools; and on
developments in cross-Strait relations.


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed the U.S.-Taiwan arms deals
and the visit to Washington by Taiwan's National Security Council
Secretary-General Su Chi in late May. The article said the Ma
Ying-jeou Administration needs to state firmly and clearly its
interest in purchasing arms from the United States so as to assure
the Obama Administration that Taiwan wants to deepen its strategic
cooperation with Washington while improving its relations with
Beijing. With regard to North Korea, an op-ed in the
pro-unification "United Daily News" said Pyongyang's second nuclear
test was aimed at showing its force to the United States, expressing
its discontent to China and, in the meantime, putting pressure on
"chaotic" South Korea. A "United Daily News" news analysis said
North Korea's latest nuclear move is not surprising at all, because
Kim Jong-il and the Obama Administration are testing each other in
an attempt to find out where both sides' bottom lines are. A column
in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" discussed how the United
States, Japan and South Korea will deal with North Korea in the wake
of its second underground nuclear test. The column said that if the
United States decides to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power
eventually, it had better bargain with Pyongyang now, so as to
prevent the latter from expanding its nuclear technology and
facilities. End summary.


3. U.S.-Taiwan Relations

"Taiwan-U.S. Strategic Cooperation Is up to Now"

Fu S. Mei, Director of the electronic journal "Taiwan Defense
Review," opined in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation:
520,000] (5/23):

"... What impressed the outside world most was nothing except that
during the question and answer session of a digital video conference
with the U.S. think tank "Center for Strategic and International
Studies" on April 22, President Ma urged the United States to sell
Taiwan F-16 C/D fighter jets and submarines. The significance of
[Ma's remarks] can be interpreted in two ways. First, [he] targeted
those strategists and scholars in Washington as his main audience,
proposing a policy direction (continuous arms sales [to Taiwan]) as
a subject that he believes the United States will be interested in
hearing, in an attempt to resolve the doubts of some Americans that
Ma may be too weak toward Beijing. In the meantime, he also openly
announced his interest in arms procurements, which can serve as an
overture urging the U.S. government to 'beckon to Taiwan to act' in
terms of the two major arms deals. ...

"High-ranking U.S. officials recently said in private that the Obama
Administration will not 'beckon to Taiwan to act' on arms sales.
Should Washington take the initiative to make the first move, it
will surely cause trouble for its relations with Beijing, and the
United States will certainly have to pay for it. The U.S. attitude
is that Taipei must make its request proactively, in a concrete
manner and via a formal channel, so that the U.S. side can act upon
it. ... As a result, if Taiwan's high-ranking officials can
formally put forward its request to the Obama Administration in a
clear, powerful and firm manner, it will become the key as to
whether these arms procurements will be carried out.

"After Taiwan makes its requests and reaches a consensus with the
United States, Washington still needs to ponder the timing to handle
[such a request]. Currently the U.S. strategists all maintain that
[Washington] lengthens the time between its decision to accept
Taiwan's letter of request for the F-16 fighter jets and the planned
trip by the U.S. president to China in fall, or even to handle
Taiwan's letter of request after the U.S. president's trip to China,
so as to alleviate the political impact. The time for President
Obama's planned trip to China remains to be decided, but it is
generally believed that it will happen either before or after the
APEC summit in mid-November. ... The challenge for the Ma
Administration is to expand, consolidate and deepen Taiwan's
strategic cooperation with the United States (including, but not
limited to, the military arena) while it seeks to improve relations
with Beijing. It is up to the message that will be delivered by
[National Security Council] Secretary-General Su Chi to Washington
[in late May] as to whether President Ma will assure the Obama
Administration about Taiwan's interest and determination in this
aspect."


4. North Korea

A) "North Korea: in Possession of Nuclear Weapons but Asking for
Sunshine"


Lai I-chung, assistant professor at the Mackay Medicine, Nursing &
Management College, opined in the pro-unification "United Daily
News" [circulation: 400,000] (5/26):

"... The second nuclear test launched by North Korea indicated that
it intends to show its force to the United States, to express its
discontent to China, and in the meantime, to exercise pressure on
Seoul while the latter is now in turbulence. Pyongyang's purpose is
to demand that the world recognize North Korea's status of
[possessing] nuclear weapons and await a chance to break through the
framework of the Six Party Talks, in the hope that other countries
will adopt a sunshine policy and improve their relations with
Pyongyang. ...

"In short, Pyongyang's second nuclear test indicates that it has no
intention of abandoning nuclear weapons, and it is tantamount to an
announcement that it will no longer participate in the Six Party
Talks, whose objective is a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.
Pyongyang wants to follow the pattern of India and Pakistan to not
just showcase its nuclear weapons but to take advantage of bilateral
meetings to cause other countries to change their policies toward
North Korea. In particular, it hopes that the sunshine policy with
the South Korean government, which is similar to that of the talks
that helped to resolve the Berlin crisis, will be re-started. It is
up to the answers of [U.S. President Barack] Obama and [South Korean
President] Lee Myung-bak as to whether Pyongyang will be able to get
sunshine against the background of its possession of nuclear
weapons."

B) "North Korea Contends with the United States; a Competition in
Endurance and an All-Out Game"

Liou To-hai, a professor of the Department of Diplomacy at the
National Chengchi University, wrote in the pro-unification "United
Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (5/26):

"... The nuclear test this time was also one of a series of
provocative moves that North Korea has taken since [Barack] Obama
assumed the United States presidency this January. ... The Obama
Administration and Kim Jong-il are testing each other's patience,
national power and wisdom and waiting to see which side will yield
first. This is exactly the same as when [former United States]
President George W. Bush just took office. In contrast to the
[former] Bush Administration, however, neither side is conducting 'a
game of chicken.' Instead, it is a game of wisdom and endurance, as
well as a game of moving and stasis.

"North Korea apparently has grown discontent with the United States'
current strategy of keeping still so as to restrain [North Korea
from] taking any moves. If the United States continues undertaking
hostile policies, it is likely that Pyongyang will repeatedly create
crises or military conflicts to force the United States' hand.
Under such circumstances, it is likely that the Obama Administration
will do what the former Bush Administration did by cooperating with
Beijing to restrain North Korea."

C) "How Should the United States, Japan and South Korea Deal with
North Korea's Nuclear Test?"

The "International Lookout" column in the centrist, KMT-leaning
"China Times" [circulation: 130,000] (5/26):

"North Korea claims that it has conducted its second underground
nuclear test. There is no need to make a fuss about nothing. It is
because North Korea has been steady and firm in developing nuclear
weapons and can only move forward, not retreat. The problem lies in
how the United States deals with it. ...

"This column has already provided analyses [to the effect that] that
the United States has only two approaches. The first is to destroy
North Korea's nuclear armaments. The second is to recognize North
Korea's possession of nuclear weapons with conditions. Other than
that, the United States has nowhere to go. If the United States
does not take the first approach, it is absolutely impossible to
prevent North Korea from possessing nuclear weapons. If the United
States takes the second approach, it might as well bargain with
North Korea by rigorously restricting North Korea from proliferating
nuclear weapons and nuclear equipment. In fact, the United States'
[former] Bush Administration and the Obama Administration have been
preparing the second approach, only not admitting to it on the
surface. What a pity the 'Six-Party Talks' are thereby affected,
merely endorsing the United States' and North Korea's future
compromise. ..."

YOUNG