MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, NORTH KOREA

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000628 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, NORTH KOREA ¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their May 23-26 news coverage on the H1N1 influenza epidemic in Taiwan; on former South KoreaN President Roh Moo-hyun's suicide; on the junior high school students' exams for entering senior high schools; and on developments in cross-Strait relations. ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed the U.S.-Taiwan arms deals and the visit to Washington by Taiwan's National Security Council Secretary-General Su Chi in late May. The article said the Ma Ying-jeou Administration needs to state firmly and clearly its interest in purchasing arms from the United States so as to assure the Obama Administration that Taiwan wants to deepen its strategic cooperation with Washington while improving its relations with Beijing. With regard to North Korea, an op-ed in the pro-unification "United Daily News" said Pyongyang's second nuclear test was aimed at showing its force to the United States, expressing its discontent to China and, in the meantime, putting pressure on "chaotic" South Korea. A "United Daily News" news analysis said North Korea's latest nuclear move is not surprising at all, because Kim Jong-il and the Obama Administration are testing each other in an attempt to find out where both sides' bottom lines are. A column in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" discussed how the United States, Japan and South Korea will deal with North Korea in the wake of its second underground nuclear test. The column said that if the United States decides to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power eventually, it had better bargain with Pyongyang now, so as to prevent the latter from expanding its nuclear technology and facilities. End summary. ¶3. U.S.-Taiwan Relations "Taiwan-U.S. Strategic Cooperation Is up to Now" Fu S. Mei, Director of the electronic journal "Taiwan Defense Review," opined in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000] (5/23): "... What impressed the outside world most was nothing except that during the question and answer session of a digital video conference with the U.S. think tank "Center for Strategic and International Studies" on April 22, President Ma urged the United States to sell Taiwan F-16 C/D fighter jets and submarines. The significance of [Ma's remarks] can be interpreted in two ways. First, [he] targeted those strategists and scholars in Washington as his main audience, proposing a policy direction (continuous arms sales [to Taiwan]) as a subject that he believes the United States will be interested in hearing, in an attempt to resolve the doubts of some Americans that Ma may be too weak toward Beijing. In the meantime, he also openly announced his interest in arms procurements, which can serve as an overture urging the U.S. government to 'beckon to Taiwan to act' in terms of the two major arms deals. ... "High-ranking U.S. officials recently said in private that the Obama Administration will not 'beckon to Taiwan to act' on arms sales. Should Washington take the initiative to make the first move, it will surely cause trouble for its relations with Beijing, and the United States will certainly have to pay for it. The U.S. attitude is that Taipei must make its request proactively, in a concrete manner and via a formal channel, so that the U.S. side can act upon it. ... As a result, if Taiwan's high-ranking officials can formally put forward its request to the Obama Administration in a clear, powerful and firm manner, it will become the key as to whether these arms procurements will be carried out. "After Taiwan makes its requests and reaches a consensus with the United States, Washington still needs to ponder the timing to handle [such a request]. Currently the U.S. strategists all maintain that [Washington] lengthens the time between its decision to accept Taiwan's letter of request for the F-16 fighter jets and the planned trip by the U.S. president to China in fall, or even to handle Taiwan's letter of request after the U.S. president's trip to China, so as to alleviate the political impact. The time for President Obama's planned trip to China remains to be decided, but it is generally believed that it will happen either before or after the APEC summit in mid-November. ... The challenge for the Ma Administration is to expand, consolidate and deepen Taiwan's strategic cooperation with the United States (including, but not limited to, the military arena) while it seeks to improve relations with Beijing. It is up to the message that will be delivered by [National Security Council] Secretary-General Su Chi to Washington [in late May] as to whether President Ma will assure the Obama Administration about Taiwan's interest and determination in this aspect." ¶4. North Korea A) "North Korea: in Possession of Nuclear Weapons but Asking for Sunshine" Lai I-chung, assistant professor at the Mackay Medicine, Nursing & Management College, opined in the pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (5/26): "... The second nuclear test launched by North Korea indicated that it intends to show its force to the United States, to express its discontent to China, and in the meantime, to exercise pressure on Seoul while the latter is now in turbulence. Pyongyang's purpose is to demand that the world recognize North Korea's status of [possessing] nuclear weapons and await a chance to break through the framework of the Six Party Talks, in the hope that other countries will adopt a sunshine policy and improve their relations with Pyongyang. ... "In short, Pyongyang's second nuclear test indicates that it has no intention of abandoning nuclear weapons, and it is tantamount to an announcement that it will no longer participate in the Six Party Talks, whose objective is a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang wants to follow the pattern of India and Pakistan to not just showcase its nuclear weapons but to take advantage of bilateral meetings to cause other countries to change their policies toward North Korea. In particular, it hopes that the sunshine policy with the South Korean government, which is similar to that of the talks that helped to resolve the Berlin crisis, will be re-started. It is up to the answers of [U.S. President Barack] Obama and [South Korean President] Lee Myung-bak as to whether Pyongyang will be able to get sunshine against the background of its possession of nuclear weapons." B) "North Korea Contends with the United States; a Competition in Endurance and an All-Out Game" Liou To-hai, a professor of the Department of Diplomacy at the National Chengchi University, wrote in the pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (5/26): "... The nuclear test this time was also one of a series of provocative moves that North Korea has taken since [Barack] Obama assumed the United States presidency this January. ... The Obama Administration and Kim Jong-il are testing each other's patience, national power and wisdom and waiting to see which side will yield first. This is exactly the same as when [former United States] President George W. Bush just took office. In contrast to the [former] Bush Administration, however, neither side is conducting 'a game of chicken.' Instead, it is a game of wisdom and endurance, as well as a game of moving and stasis. "North Korea apparently has grown discontent with the United States' current strategy of keeping still so as to restrain [North Korea from] taking any moves. If the United States continues undertaking hostile policies, it is likely that Pyongyang will repeatedly create crises or military conflicts to force the United States' hand. Under such circumstances, it is likely that the Obama Administration will do what the former Bush Administration did by cooperating with Beijing to restrain North Korea." C) "How Should the United States, Japan and South Korea Deal with North Korea's Nuclear Test?" The "International Lookout" column in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 130,000] (5/26): "North Korea claims that it has conducted its second underground nuclear test. There is no need to make a fuss about nothing. It is because North Korea has been steady and firm in developing nuclear weapons and can only move forward, not retreat. The problem lies in how the United States deals with it. ... "This column has already provided analyses [to the effect that] that the United States has only two approaches. The first is to destroy North Korea's nuclear armaments. The second is to recognize North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons with conditions. Other than that, the United States has nowhere to go. If the United States does not take the first approach, it is absolutely impossible to prevent North Korea from possessing nuclear weapons. If the United States takes the second approach, it might as well bargain with North Korea by rigorously restricting North Korea from proliferating nuclear weapons and nuclear equipment. In fact, the United States' [former] Bush Administration and the Obama Administration have been preparing the second approach, only not admitting to it on the surface. What a pity the 'Six-Party Talks' are thereby affected, merely endorsing the United States' and North Korea's future compromise. ..." YOUNG