MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000554 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused May 8 news coverage on former President Chen Shui-bian, who protested after a court hearing Thursday that his detention is illegal and politically motivated; on the massive May 17 anti-government protest planned by the DPP; and on Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) Chairman P. K. Chiang, who tendered his resignation Monday, and which President Ma declined to accept. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" criticized the policy of the Ma Ying-jeou Administration and of the United States to engage with Beijing. The article said "[T]he utter failure of the US' policy was apparent during U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's February visit to Beijing, when she said issues such as human rights couldn't be allowed to 'interfere' with the tackling of economic problems. Clinton's reluctance to bring up issues unpalatable to Chinese leaders seems to indicate that, instead of changing China, engagement has produced the opposite effect." An editorial in the conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" discussed a naval confrontation incident between the United States and China in the Yellow Sea last Friday and Beijing's strategy toward the United States. The article said "China's strategy seems to be working ... the U.S. is inclined to see China more as a partner than a competitor. Such a situation could pose a great challenge for Taiwan." End summary. A) "Engagement Is Not Changing China" The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (5/8): "President Ma Ying-jeou has said several times that he believes Taiwan's democracy can act as a positive example for China and that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) will only consider unification if and when Beijing embraces universal suffrage. Ma's theory is not unique. It is almost identical to that of the US government, which for many years has trumpeted its policy of engagement with Beijing as a way of changing China's authoritarian system, leading to its eventual democratization. But were it to be ranked on its effectiveness so far, the US policy would most definitely receive a failing grade. ... "The utter failure of the U.S.' policy was apparent during U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's February visit to Beijing, when she said issues such as human rights couldn't be allowed to 'interfere' with the tackling of economic problems. Clinton's reluctance to bring up issues unpalatable to Chinese leaders seems to indicate that instead of changing China, engagement has produced the opposite effect. ... If a country as powerful as the U.S. has, to all intents and purposes, admitted defeat in its attempts to influence China, it does not take a genius to work out what the consequences will be for Taiwan with the Ma administration's accelerating rapprochement." B) "Learning from Sun Tzu's 'The Art of War'" The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (5/8): "Last Friday marked the latest in a string of naval confrontations between China and the U.S., when, according to the Pentagon, two ships from China's Bureau of Fisheries Patrol came 'dangerously close' (within 27 meters) to the surveillance ship USNS Victorious operating in the Yellow Sea. ... The recent showdowns between the so-called G-2 nations are seen as indicators of China's increasing confidence in its naval might and Washington's reluctance to escalate situations in a time when it needs Beijing on board to tackle issues such as the financial crisis, global warming, and North Korea's arms race. ... While China's naval power is still far behind that of the U.S., China's recent clashes with the U.S. are more than simple calls for attention, and should be regarded with caution. ... "In other words, Beijing opted not to overpower the U.S. Navy, but to obtain the capability of area denial. By showcasing its nuclear submarines and its growing confidence in the seas, Beijing had averted the U.S.' attention out of East Asia, which is in line with the oldest of Chinese military wisdoms, Sun Tzu's Art of War: 'When your opponent is in superior strength, evade it.' Other 'shashoujian' (the assassin's mace) such as China's ability to smash orbiting satellites and its cyber-warfare capability (though Beijing denies its development of such technologies) are all aimed at disrupting U.S. military communications and making it difficult to coordinate an operation in East Asia. For now, China's strategy seems to be working. Facing a global financial crisis and two ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. is inclined to see China more as a partner than a competitor. Such a situation could pose a great challenge for Taiwan. "While Beijing and Taipei seem to be on their way to diplomatic detente, the option of attacking the island by force has never left the table. Even best friends fight sometimes, so while the people of Taiwan should hope for improving relations, they should not leave their fate to the mercy of a heavily-armed big brother. The long term survival of the ROC should not be assumed, but earned. Taiwan's military should learn from China and develop its own area-denial capabilities to prepare for the unthinkable. These include capabilities to create surprise and opportunities, such as better intelligence and cyber-warfare. After all, one of the best ways to maintain peace and promote camaraderie among friends, ironically, is to make dispute an ugly option." YOUNG