MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000256 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused March 7-9 news coverage on the debate over whether Taiwan should sign an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China; on the Taiwan team's poor performance at the World Baseball Classic game Saturday; and on the on-going investigation into the corruption case against former President Chen Shui-bian and his family. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" discussed an article recently published by Georgetown University professor Robert Sutter at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The article urged the Taiwan public to pay close attention to Sutter's warning against the Ma Ying-jeou Administration's pro-China policy and cautioned that "perhaps Washington will eventually give up on Taiwan and go straight ahead to talk with China about the future of Taiwan." An editorial in the pro-independence "Taiwan News" also discussed Sutter's article and the recent remarks by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at China's National People's Congress. The article said the only possible way for Taiwan to get out of its current quandary caused by Ma's pro-China policy "lies in an embrace of Taiwan's pluralist democracy and the opening of consultations with the Taiwan-centric opposition led by the DPP ... toward a consensus 'bottom line' on China policy..." End summary. A) "Pay Attention to a U.S. Scholar's Warning to the Ma Administration's Pro-China Policy" The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 700,000] editorialized (3/7): "Robert Sutter, a U.S. Georgetown University professor, recently published an article at the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategy and International Studies (CSIS). The article pointed out that, even though the United States encourages the ongoing reconciliation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, China's rapidly increasing influence on Taiwan has prevented the United States from implementing its longstanding goal to 'maintain balance in the Taiwan Strait region.' Washington [thus] needs to have an overall review of its policy, [Sutter proposed.] Sutter's true and pertinent analysis and warning came shortly after the Obama Administration took office and in the wake of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent visit to East Asian nations, including China. The Ma Ying-jeou Administration, which is now implementing a comprehensive pro-China policy, will likely turn a deaf ear [to Sutter's remarks.] But the Taiwan people must stand on their toes and try the best they can to stop the worst scenario of 'Taiwan seeking refuge with China, the United States abandoning Taiwan' from happening. ... "We have clearly expounded Sutter's analysis and warning: He has offered sincere observation and analysis of the triangular relationship among Taiwan, China and the United States. Not only so, as a result of the evident imbalance caused by the Ma Administration's all-round tilting toward China, one can tell from Sutter's suggestion that the United States will likely be forced to skip Taiwan and work with its allies, such as Japan, to re-structure a contingency plan to cope with the rise of China. The most serious [scenario] with Taiwan will be that, since the Ma Administration has decided single-heartedly to lean toward China, and it appears that it no longer needs the United States, perhaps Washington will eventually give up on Taiwan and go straight ahead to talk with China about the future of Taiwan. Evidently, Sutter spoke from the perspective of U.S. interests and pointed out that the United States cannot do without a contingency plan while Taiwan is throwing itself into the arms of China. But judging from the fact that the United States, with its need for China's cooperation on international issues such as North Korea, did not hesitate to suppress Taiwan's initiative to resist China, citing as a reason 'maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait,' one cannot say that the coming back to power of Taiwan's pro-China forces was not related to the unwise Taiwan policy of the United States. ..." B) "What Wen's Report Means for Taiwan" The pro-independence "Taiwan News" [circulation: 20,000] editorialized (3/9): "... For example, in an article published by the prestigious Center for Strategy and International Studies Friday, prominent U.S. Taiwan analyst Robert Sutter cautioned that Washington's 'support for Ma's strong efforts to reassure China have not directly addressed changing realities of power and influence regarding Taiwan.' ... This question highlights the quandary in which Taiwan lies in the wake of Ma's drive for cross-strait detente through a tacit acceptance of the PRC's 'one China' principle which granted Beijing political leverage to reinforce the global impression that 'Taiwan is willing to become part of PRC, at least initially economically.' "The accelerated drive by top PRC leaders such as Hu and Wen for prompt talks on economic cooperation, a peace pact and unification has now pushed the KMT government and Ma, who as president is personally responsible for cross-strait policy, into a corner. Escape from this trap does not lie in a protestation by the KMT government that 'the Republic of China represents the one China' as such declarations are, at best, perceived by the world community as confirmation that a once assertively independent Taiwan is moving into China's orbit. The only possible way out lies in an embrace of Taiwan's pluralist democracy and the opening of consultations with the Taiwan-centric opposition led by the Democratic Progressive Party and other social forces toward a consensus 'bottom line' on China policy before Taiwan's national interests and the democratic choice of Taiwanese people are irrevocably compromised." YOUNG