MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001247 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - THOMAS HAMM DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS ¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news coverage October 20 on the Taiwan government's plan to impose energy taxes starting in 2011; on President Ma Ying-jeou's remarks on cross-Strait relations during his interview with Reuters Monday; and on the year-end city mayors' and country magistrates' elections in Taiwan. Both the pro-unification "United Daily News" and the KMT-leaning "China Times" carried news stories saying incumbent U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs Eric Shinseki is expected to visit Taiwan in 2010, a move which the newspapers believe to be "a symbol of the warming ties between the United States and Taiwan." ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a news analysis in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" commented on President Ma's interview with Reuters and said that recognizing Taiwan's independent sovereignty would be better than removing the missiles targeting Taiwan, if both sides of the Taiwan Strait were to negotiate a peace pact. An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" discussed a missile test conducted by Taiwan's military in southern Taiwan last Tuesday, and the alleged "leak" of the information about the test. The article suspected that the "leak" was meant to "downplay the importance of the test and ensure that cross-strait talks on economic liberalization can continue apace." End summary. A) "Recognizing [Taiwan's] Independent Sovereignty Would Be Better Than Removing the Missiles" Journalist Lo Tien-ping noted in an analysis in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 680,000] (10/20): "During an interview with Reuters on October 19, President Ma Ying-jeou raised a two-stage doctrine of 'removing the missiles [targeting Taiwan] first before both sides negotiate a peace agreement.' He also indicated that he would not exclude the possibility of meeting with [Chinese President] Hu Jintao. But given the rapid changes going on in cross-Strait relations, the prerequisite for Ma's remarks on 'removing the missiles' was obviously obsolete. If both sides of the Taiwan Strait were to negotiate a peace pact, its prerequisite should be that China must publicly announce that Taiwan is an independent sovereign state. Only when both sides are standing on an equal footing will the talks over a peace pact have significance, and in that way Taiwan's interests will be safeguarded. ..." B) "Missiles, Leaks and Really Odd Timing" The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/20): "The timing of a major missile test at Jioupeng base, Pingtung County, last Tuesday, could not have been more unusual, coming a little more than a week before Taipei and Beijing were to launch informal talks on a trade pact. ... The fact that a missile test on this scale was held at all under a Ma administration that seeks, above all, better relations with China, and at a time when the two sides are on the brink of signing trade pacts, is itself striking. Failure or not, it is difficult to reconcile the timing with Ma's 'pragmatic' approach to cross-strait relations. "Though it is shrouded in secrecy, it is hard to imagine that the test would have gone unnoticed by the US and China. Despite Washington's opposition to Taiwan's acquiring or developing offensive weapons -- which the HF-2E is -- we can assume that the US military, which maintains close ties with the Taiwanese military apparatus, was informed beforehand, perhaps during the US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference in Virginia late last month, or at the Transnational Security Cooperation course provided by the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, a US-funded think tank based in Hawaii, earlier this year. Such a test would also have been difficult to hide from China. Despite the remoteness of the base, which is located in the southeastern part of the country, such missiles would be picked up by Chinese radar. The plan, therefore, appears to have been to keep the test secret and to avoid publicity lest it derail the careful, albeit precarious, balancing act engineered by Taipei, Beijing and Washington. ..." "While leaks are nothing new in the military, whistle-blowers usually make classified information public for a reason. In this case, given the sensitive nature and timing of the test, it is conceivable that the originator of the leak meant to put a spoke in the wheel of cross-strait negotiations, which have proceeded despite public apprehension. ... Many questions remain. Did the test really fail, as the military tells us, or is this information, which contradicts initial reports of a success, meant to downplay the importance of the test and ensure that cross-strait talks on economic liberalization can continue apace?" STANTON