MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001222 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - THOMAS HAMM DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news coverage October 10-13 on former Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian, who filed a petition with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces earlier asking the court to order Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, who Chen described in his suit as the "current civil administrator in Taiwan," to set him free and rescind the life sentence imposed on him; on the KMT's Central Standing Committee election Sunday; and on U.S. President Barack Obama's winning the Nobel Peace Prize. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" said, judging from U.S. President Obama's "tendency to please enemy states while overlooking allies," he might postpone the sale of F16 C/D fighter jets to Taiwan because of China's opposition. An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" discussed Obama's winning the Nobel Peace Prize and said he "can best fulfill the trust symbolized by the Nobel Peace Prize by realizing that genuine peace in East Asia requires effective guarantees for the protection of smaller nations from an authoritarian and militarily belligerent power. ..." End summary A) "U.S. Position on Taiwan Defense Is Shifting" Lin Cheng-yi, Director of the Institute of European and American Studies at the Academia Sinica, opined in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (10/13): "Former US President George W. Bush planned to station missile interceptors in Poland and radar bases in the Czech Republic to prevent Iran from attacking Europe with missiles. However, because the plan upset Russia, US President Barack Obama canceled it. A Wall Street Journal editorial criticized Obama for giving dictators more room to maneuver while not giving those who challenge dictators enough opportunities. Obama's tendency to please enemy states while overlooking allies and the way he has dealt with Poland and Tibet make one wonder whether he might postpone the sale of F16C/D fighter planes to Taiwan because of Chinese opposition. This is something that Taiwan cannot afford to ignore. Obama administration officials have repeatedly said the US has the responsibility to provide defensive weapons to Taiwan according to the Taiwan Relations Act. However, he has also extended strategic guarantees to Chinese President Hu Jintao. While the Obama administration slapped 35 percent tariffs on Chinese tires and sent the USS Chung-Hoon destroyer to protect the US' naval right of passage in the South China Sea, his postponing of a meeting the Dalai Lama, muted criticism of China's human rights and finance policies and increasing China's voting power in the IMF all show that moral principles are losing to practical concerns. "Over the past two years, Taiwan has set funds aside and requested that the US provide it with weapons. ... In the past, it was Taiwan that delayed arms purchases; now it is the US government, and in doing so it is allowing the cross-strait military balance to shift in Beijing's favor. Obama will find that the longer he postpones the sale of the F16C/Ds to Taiwan, the stronger China's reaction and the higher the price the US and Taiwan will have to pay to pacify it. ... [Kurt] Campbell is now Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs. In the past, he was also a member of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank, as is US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs Wallace Gregson. This implies that the Obama administration plans to increase the 'soft power' of Taiwan's military and will not be focusing so much on weapons sales. "At the conference, Gregson said that as Taiwan's national defense resources are limited, Taiwan should adopt more creative security concepts. He also suggested that Taiwan develop asymmetric warfare capabilities. This suggestion is very similar to the 'porcupine' defense strategy proposed by US Naval War College professor William Murray and probably shows the way for future US-Taiwan cooperation on defense. The method dodges the matter of selling F16C/Ds to Taiwan and eases US worries that US-made weapons could end up in Chinese hands 20 years from now." B) "Obama Must Promote Real East Asian Peace" The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 20,000] editorialized (10/12): "... Obama's foreign policy principles entail the extensive use of multilateral diplomatic negotiation to defuse potential conflicts and has emphasized 'engagement and dialogue' over 'containment and confrontation' in handling the challenges posed by rising regional powers, notably the Chinese Communist Party-ruled People's Republic of China. So far, Obama has tallied several notable achievements in accordance with the goals of maintaining peace and protecting human rights, including his initiative to seek reconciliation between the U.S. and the Muslim world, the closing of the notorious the U.S. concentration camp at Guantanamo, the beginning of the implementation of his plan to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq and his renouncement of plans for a missile defense system deployment in Poland. However, the decision to award Obama with a Nobel Peace Prize in advance with the apparent strategic intention of encouraging Washington to stay on the multilateral track has its blind spots. "First, it is by no means the case that Obama's foreign policy is simply a product of 'ABB' ('Anything but Bush') considerations but is largely a reflection of domestic pressures. ... Moreover, the Obama administration's approach in Asia is fraught with fundamental dilemmas. Undoubtedly, a difficult challenge concerns whether Obama can display both strong determination and smart diplomacy in dealing with 'rogue states' such as North Korea and Iran. Moreover, the Obama administration has not only supported new Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio's notion of an Asian regional community but has also strongly encouraged its allies to follow policies of engagement with the PRC. "The problem lies in the fact that the PRC itself and its transparent ambition for regional hegemony and the threat to regional democracies and human rights posed by its military-backed authoritarian influence is precisely the main long-term structural threat to regional peace and security. Obama has yet to show awareness for the need for a balance in maintaining peace in military terms and ensuring the continuation and fostering of democracy and human rights in Asia, a balance which we deeply believe must be tilted in favor of the latter. Indeed, on the eve of his first official trip to Asia and the PRC, Obama put off a planned meeting with the Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama in Washington last week. This move hints that Obama is continuing his predecessor's excessive dependence on Beijing's 'cooperation' on other issues while neglecting to hedge the risks of the PRC's rise to hegemony in Asia, ignoring its threat to regional democracy and human rights and failing to be aware of the possibly grave reverberations on hopes for democracy in the PRC itself of the erosion of democracy in other Asian nations, especially Taiwan. "Obama can best fulfill the trust symbolized by the Nobel Peace Prize by realizing that genuine peace in East Asia requires effective guarantees for the protection of smaller nations from an authoritarian and militarily belligerent power and by sowing the seeds of democracy and human rights instead of sacrificing these basic values for the sake of short-term calm. We therefore urge President Obama to express his concern on the CCP regime's continued violation of human rights in his scheduled visit to China next month and to express his concerns for the recent signs of regression in Taiwan's democracy under the restored Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, KMT) government under President Ma Ying-jeou." STANTON